Draft settlement treaty - Ukraine
Laurie Meadows
11 June 2022 [ last edited 02 October 2022 0903 UTC]

Tipping point in the Ukraine conflict   Russia's leadership outstanding - avoids loss   There won't be nuclear war   Russia's conflict resolution measures   There will be no mediators

The political border      Political borders and security borders are different 

option - remain Ukrainian      option - become an autonomous region of Ukraine      option - independent state   

The Mother of all treaties

Surrender and post-war reconciliation

The issue of rockets    Roadmap to verification   

This is a follow up article to the article I wrote on 19th of February 2022, 5 days before the launch of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine. It was called 'Mutually Assured Destruction - the Prelude to Mutually Assured Security'. At the time, I didn't think Russia would move into the Donesk. I wrote:

"The current lead that Russia has in missile and defensive systems might persuade the US to agree to verifiable arms control, but this is the work of years.
In the meantime, the West provokes Russia relentlessly, across all dimensions of life. This is dangerous. It is time for nations to comply with their obligations under the UN Charter. A mechanism must be found accelerate a move to universal security and the peace dividend it brings.
And Russia has done this, in a stunning and unexpected move, a move missed by the entire media."

I was referring to an article I published on the same day 'Blindsided by Peace?' The "stunning and unexpected move" was the December 2021 presentation to the US and to NATO of new draft Security Treaties. One was written for NATO as an organization, and the other for the United States. I note "The provisions are short and the language uncompromising. They secure Russia's security while at the same time securing European security."

Well, the USA didn't sign, and neither did NATO. I now suspect the Russians had intelligence that an assault against the breakaway republics and on into Russia's Crimea was planned, and was maybe only months from being launched. I now suspect the Americans knew that Russia suspected something was in the offing, even if the exact date wasn't known. As the Russian President Vladimir Putin commented in 2015 "Over 50 years ago the streets of Leningrad taught me a rule of thumb - if a fight is inevitable - you have to hit first".

"Embassy employees are being evacuated and Anglo-Saxons are urged to leave Ukraine as soon as possible. Some food for thought: what if the Anglo-Saxons are preparing something of their own and this is why they are evacuating their staff? We see their actions."
Sergey Lavrov 10 February 2022
No matter how many more months the conflict in Ukraine goes on, Russia has 'won'. Or rather, nearly achieved it's initial objectives of helping the Lughansk and Donesk Republics to push out the Ukrainian armed forces - many of the units there were manned with white supremacist nationalists, espousing Nazi ideas. To the extent these extremists are captured, killed or pushed out, then de-nazification - another Russian objective - is achieved, at least in the new Republics.


The tipping point is near


The tipping point is near. The West (who are the armers and instigators of the conflict) will have to tell the Ukrainian government to come to terms. A signed peace treaty will be required. It is now a matter of historic record that the signature of Western politicians on agreements is worthless, and the more so the signature of Ukrainian politicians. So will Russia ignore the Ukrainian capitulation and their plea for a peace treaty? After all, it could grind on and capture as much Ukrainian territory as it wanted, as long as it was willing to pay for it in 'blood and treasure' - as the saying goes.

I don't know what Russia will do. I do know what Russia wants for itself, and for others, because it has publicly stated it. I do know it wants normal relations with Ukraine, because it has said so. And the Russians almost never lie.
"Even some seemingly respectable media outlets write about an “operation” that we are supposedly preparing with the aim of seizing Kiev and other Ukrainian cities or that some “coup” is being prepared with a view to putting a puppet regime in power in the Ukrainian capital."
Sergey Lavrov 10 February 2022
We can guess an operation was being planned 2 weeks before the launch. But not to 'seize' Kiev. Not to 'seize' (note that word) 'other Ukrainian cities. Not to place a puppet regime in power.

We are left with the stated aim - liberation of the 2 Republics. Kiev won't be taken. Lviv won't be taken. What of other Ukrainian cities?

Question: [...] Does Russia intend to demand that Kiev additionally recognise independence of the Kherson Region and part of the Zaporozhye Region currently controlled by the Russian forces, or their accession to Russia?
Sergey Lavrov: This question will be answered by the people living in the liberated territories. They are saying that they want to choose their future on their own. We fully respect this position.
Sergey Lavrov 6 June 2022

Time and again the Russian government has stated that the future of other areas will be decided by the people who live there themselves. Therefore, there will be a referendum. How will it be worded? We will have to wait to see. How long before conditions to hold it are suitable?

Talk to someone who has power.


"Where Macgregor sits is the head of the table"

This quote from the book 'Rob Roy' by Sir Walter Scott. It embodies the reality that outstanding leaders are almost instinctively recognised by all who exercise power, whether they admit it or not.

Such leaders command true respect (not the respect that comes from fear) because they have earned respect. Not by dramatic actions, but by effecting popular outcomes, by being consistent over time, by being honest, calm, by not turning away and blaming others when things unexpectedly go badly, by being patient and far sighted. Such a rare person knows the all the dimensions of power - diplomatic, military, informational,  economic.

Russia, just like any other country, is concerned with one thing - the comfort and happiness of its people.

"Our greatest concern and the main task is to increase people’s incomes. This is our priority, our number one task, and we are not going to resolve it by simple linear methods. To do this, we must ensure the growth of the economy and a change of its infrastructure.

This is a long-term goal.

We are not going to use populist methods.

It is based on qualitative economic growth that we intend to resolve major social tasks - including an increase in the incomes of the Russian people and the demographic problem, which is our second most important task.

It implies a package of social issues: healthcare, education and support for families with children.

To resolve all these tasks, we have mapped out certain national development goals...Therefore, we should resolve the two main problems ‒ improve demography and increase people’s incomes, raise their quality of life on this serious economic foundation I have just mentioned. This is what we are going to do in the near future"
Vladimir Putin 14 October 2021


Russia signed into law a document outlining national goals and strategic objectives on 7th May 2018. They covered 12 areas, and in many cases, listed very specific key indicators of success which had to be met by 2024. The areas covered will be familiar to you, because most countries have similar desires for their people :
All this is expensive, both in money and effort. A huge amount of money has been sunk into it. If you were the Russian government, would you risk destruction of all your hard won progress?

How could Russian development be destroyed, anyway? There are 4 obvious possibilities:

We can dismiss nuclear strikes - even by the Americans. The Russian and American Presidents have signed a declaration that a nuclear war cannot be won, and must not be fought. Both are bound by chains of terror. I have fully covered this matter in my article 'The Time Has Come'. Russia's nuclear strike policy was very clearly explained by the Russian President in 2018, and is appended to my article. Nothing more need be said.

"The end, ways, and means, they lack that, to be able to go back to the pre-2014.

The second point that I would make is, you know, as you look at the DIME—diplomatic, informational, military, and economic—we’re woefully lacking on the diplomatic piece of this. If you notice, there’s no diplomacy going on at all to trying to get to some type of negotiations. And I don’t think that we can lead that, given where Putin thinks about us.

But if you sit back and think about those that could possibly be a part of this negotiation team, you know, you have the—two of them are in—that I’m going to list are in NATO. One is President Orbán out of Hungary. Perhaps he can help out in the negotiation effort. The other one is President Erdoğan of Turkey. Longtime friends of President Putin, although some view that relationship as transactional. I don’t know. Let’s put it to the test and see."
Stephen Twitty, former Deputy Commander of the United States European Command  (2018–2020), May 31 2022

Russia was always going to win the NATO proxy war. Why? because Russia has advanced standoff missiles, superior electronic suppression, superior air defense, superior aircraft, superior training in urban warfare (in Syria) - the list goes on. If NATO didn't know that, then they are professionally incompetent.

Russia does full spectrum conflict resolution (except it doesn't do much propaganda work). It know power comes from diplomacy backstopped by military competence (in all its many dimensions), and from a robust and self-reliant domestic economy. Its military responses are very carefully calibrated, constantly re-assessed and adjusted. Russia will not win 'at any cost'. It will create a military-economic-human nexus where the opposing party cannot but come to terms.

Biological warfare we can dismiss. When a new instance of a pathogen arises it's genome will be pulled apart and examined, the consensus origin found, it's genetic differences examined for structure and placement on and between chromosomes or RNA, and conclusions drawn. An attack on Russia with biological weapons will draw an immediate nuclear or hypersonic kinetic-energy response.

Economic warfare will eventually fail. It will cause quite a bit of pain for a year or two, but it has no chance of succeeding. What's more, it damages those who made the attack. I have covered this in detail in 'The West's Apartheid International Trading System'.


Russia doesn't need and doesn't want armed conflict - Russia has always wanted peace


Ukraine will come to terms because it is reaching a tipping point, where the things that anyone cares about are being lost or have become uncertain and insecure. Healthcare, housing, education, a good job, a stable and reasonably comfortable life, certainty, stability, freedom from fear - this is what people must have. At a certain point they demand peace.

Russia will provide peace on reasonable terms. But the longer the Ukraine politicians keep up a fight they know is hopeless, the longer they deliberately kill civilians in the republics, the worse the terms will be. Russia still sees Ukraine as part of the Slavic orbit, a kindred people. There are deep roots between the two countries. It will never set out to humiliate Ukraine, or try to bleed it dry. Russia thinks long term - very long term. But the terms will be set without US or European interference.

Russia will not deal with 'mediators'.
"This is the gist of the EU’s mediation. Some process started in the Balkans after Kosovo proclaimed “independence” unilaterally and without any referendum. The UN General Assembly invited the EU to mediate between Pristina and Belgrade and its effort was rather successful: in 2013, the agreement was reached on establishing the Community of Serbian Municipalities of Kosovo. In 2014, when a coup was staged in Ukraine and the “counterterrorism” forces launched an operation against Donbass and Russians in Ukraine, the EU also acted as a mediator. This led to the signing of the Minsk agreements that established certain rules, just as with regard to the Serbian municipalities in Kosovo.

The EU made a solemn promise to support a special status for northern Kosovo and eastern Ukraine. The status did not imply any complicated things: to let people speak their native tongue (Serbians were supposed to be allowed to speak Serbian and Russians in Ukraine to speak Russian), teach children in schools in their native tongue, use it in daily life and have a certain autonomy as regards law-enforcement and economic ties with neighbouring regions (northern Kosovo with Serbia and eastern Ukraine with Russia). Identical agreements were made, which urged respect for national minorities in full conformity with international European conventions on the rights of these groups. The EU announced that it had succeeded in both cases.

But it shamefully failed in both cases and had to admit it later on by saying it could not persuade Kiev to fulfil the Minsk agreements [pdf] or make Pristina abide by its agreements with Belgrade. There is something in common as regards the EU’s treatment of different areas in our common geopolitical space, its goals, its competence and its ability to make deals...I have repeatedly emphasised the main geopolitical conclusion from this situation: it is now impossible to agree with Europe on anything and be sure that they will deliver on their obligations."
Sergey Lavrov 6 June 2022

EU 'mediators' have failed twice now. They are useless, There will be no mediators. Nor will matters be dealt with President to President. They will be dealt with between competent officials, and only when everything is worked out in greatest detail will any agreement be signed by some official. There will probably be a photo opportunity, where whoever is in charge in Ukraine is treated with the usual courtesy by the President of Russia. But that's it.


Political borders and security borders - 2 different things

"Vladimir Putin has commented on the situation that emerged in connection with the arrival of the new weapons. I can only add that the longer-range arms you supply, the farther will we push from our border the line where the neo-Nazis will be able to threaten the Russian Federation...let me reiterate the following.  The West has decided to supply weapons that, in all evidence, are capable of reaching not only the border areas of the Russian Federation but also its more remote points. Politicians and legislators in Ukraine itself are laughing at the Americans, who said they believed Vladimir Zelensky’s promise not to shell Russia. ...I will stress once again: the longer-range are the systems supplied to the Kiev regime, the farther will we push the Nazis from the line from which threats emanate for the Russian population of Ukraine and the Russian Federation. "
Sergey Lavrov 6 June 2022

What is "the line" Sergey Lavrov refers to? It is the point at which shells and rockets can reach not just Russia, but also "the Russian population of Ukraine".  Where, then is the 'Russian population' of Ukraine located?  According to wikipedia, quoting a 2004 study, the percent of Russian language speakers by region (oblast) is:

Dnipropetrovsk      72%
Zaporizhia             81%
Odessa                  85%
Kharkiv                 74%
Mykolaiv               66%

This data is out of date, and populations will have shifted a great deal in the last 18 years. Many Ukrainians in the east have fled to Russia. Many families are made up of both Ukrainian speaking and Russian speaking people. And language spoken is not the sole determinant of how people identify themselves. Some Ukrainians may want to 'vote Russia', so to speak, for economic advantage. Some 'Russians' may identify with Ukraine for many reasons, from family ties, business, to ideological views.

Russiannlanguage imortance by oblast 2005
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/Official_Russian_language_support_in_Ukraine.PNG

Kherson, just above Crimea, had about 25% of people who spoke Russia as their native language in 2001, and in a 2005 survey 46% of Khersonians thought Russian should have the status as a second state language in Ukraine. This is lower than the Oblasts that surround Kherson, yet Russia announced on June 22 2022 that a referendum on accession of Kherson region to Russia will be held next autumn. Not a referendum on regional autonomy within Ukraine, but merge with Russia. Kherson is a land bridge to Crimea and so is of enormous strategic importance to Russia. The oblast is receiving 'Russification' already. It would suit Russian strategic objectives for the Oblast to be determined to be essentially 'Russian'.

This means Russia can play the great 'definition game'. Russia can use any criterion that suits it's political objectives to decide for the population just where 'Russian Ukraine' ends and "Ukrainian Ukraine' begins.

One thing is certain - the longer the range of weapons supplied to Ukraine by NATO, the wider the 'demilitarized' zone has to be. So NATO effectively is causing a wider and wider band of Russian de-weaponisation bounding the Donbass. Once under Russian control, the demilitarised zones may well decide for themselves to become a part of an expanded Donbass, or even express a desire to join Russia, especially if Russia guarantees their security. The area currently under joint Russian and Republican control includes major crop growing areas as well as industrial plant, and produces around 50% of Ukraine's GDP. If Mykolaiv and Odessa (industrial areas) are lost to the Russia and the Republic forces, the coalition will control +/- 75% of Ukrainian GDP. Ukraine is deeply indebted to the west, & will be unable to service it's obligations on a reduced industrial and agricultural base. It is on the way to becoming a failed state.

The Ukraine government policy of sending citizens to industrial scale death and injury is instead of establishing an agreed border is incomprehensible. Protracting the war means even more trained people will flee overseas, many more will be killed. Ultimately people will move to where conditions of life are best. Ultimately, that will be the new Republics. No one wants war. If Russia does guarantees the Republics security, people there can focus on economic matters, without the waste of money on military equipment. Inevitably Ukrainian economic refugees will storm the borders of the new republics.

But Russia is very sensitive to the problems of badly defined boundaries. The Russian President has spent endless hours mediating boundary disputes between Armenia and Azerbaijan. When the Soviet Union dissolved itself it didn't fully define some borders. Even today, around 450 kilometres of the 970-kilometre Tajik-Kyrgyz border remain undemarcated, and remain a  source of constant disputes.

But the 'military border' simply cannot be finally set until the political border is set. (Albeit when Ukraine comes to terms, a temporary border may have to be set while the political borders are finalised. At the moment, let's set aside the possibility of the total breakup of Ukraine).


The political Border


Let's consider precedent. Russia used a popular referendum (involving outside monitoring groups) to determine if Crimea was to join Russia or not. Russia was dissatisfied that a referendum was not used (by the EU) in determining whether Kosovo would become an autonomous region or not. But Crimea was strongly pro-Russia, and these other Ukrainian regions are much less easily defined one way or the other.

The choices on a referendum probably have to allow for four states:
These options determine the political boundaries. Now we can guess at where the military line will be. Again we can look at precedent. There was a demilitarised zone around Lughansk and Donetsk, monitored by the OSCE. Large caliber artillery had to be pulled back a proscribed distance from the 'line of contact'. (This did not stop the Nazis killing 14,000 people by shelling, mortars and sniping in the breakaway regions over the course of 8 years. That was then. It will be different this time)

Remain Ukrainian

Obviously, this will be status quo less Lughansk and Donesk Oblasts. A line will be drawn at a distance from the Lughansk and Donesk Oblast borders that is a little beyond the point of the range of the longest range weapon that Ukraine or the 2 Republics have. A similar maritime line will have to be drawn offshore the Black Sea. To simplify matters, all large weapons, even of shorter range, might be prohibited from the line up to the borders of Russia and the 2 republics. All we need do is look at the text of the Minsk 2 agreement. It is all there. Of course the language will be changed, from 'Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine' to the Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk respectively. The monitoring of military lines will likely be done by Russian and Eurasian Economic Union military or military police. Once the situation has calmed down, normal electronic monitoring methods by the Republics (requiring Russian satellite assistance) should suffice.

Minsk 2 clause 4 is no longer relevant. The principles of preventing reprisals of Russians in other parts of Ukraine is mentioned in clause 5 ("...a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons"). This will have to be passed in the Ukrainian Rada before Russian occupation forces leave areas where there is a significant risk of persecution of Russians. The President of Russia has undertaken to protect all Russians. Of course, the Europeans, who worked so assiduously to cause this disaster, will be charged through the OSCE with making sure the population remains safe and any criminals are found and punished. And the OSCE will have to implement suppression of Nazi ideology and ensure the freedom of information and expression, protection of minorities and human rights - that is their job.

Clause 8 is no longer relevant; part of clause 9 will be kept to ensure no control is handed back to Ukraine until the constitutional changes to de-nazify (rather than decentralise, as stated in the Minsk 2 Agreement) are passed in the Rada.

Clause 10 is needed to de-militarise Ukraine (expelling all foreign forces), and this too will have to be embedded in the constitution to prevent NATO or any other similar grouping placing itself in the country.

"President Putin has said many times, both in January and early February, that Russia will not tolerate a model of European security that relies on NATO as the dominant force. Especially when it's right on our doorstep.

We've repeatedly said that we want to find an alternative solution - a solution that would reliably address security concerns of Ukraine, the nations of Europe, and, naturally, Russia. And that's the direction we should take.

President Zelensky said that he was interested in security guarantees for Ukraine. I see this as a positive development. Our negotiators are ready to discuss these guarantees..."
Sergey Lavrov 2 March 2022

Clauses preventing Ukraine ever developing or hosting nuclear weapons will be required, and also the terms will have to include wording to recognise that nuclear weapons  pose an unacceptable existential threat to Russia and the existence of which on Ukrainian territory will result in a military response. This allows Russia to attack Ukraine at any time that they renege on this key part.

"The head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergei Naryshkin, has stated that the SVR had obtained intelligence showing that Ukraine was working on building its own nuclear weapons."
- Sputnik News 03 March 2022

But we have to pay attention the 'all inclusive' nature of Sergey Lavrov's statement. The Russian government has previously commented that Ukraine is not really the main problem for Russia. Clearly, Russian and European mutual indivisible security is. And this must include 'detaching' USA, as it has embedded itself into it's European host's tissues very deeply.


Autonomous regions of Ukraine

Those regions such as Odessa that might vote for autonomy might as well sign up to a Minsk 2 - style agreement. After all, Minsk 2 was hammered out to suit all parties, and hammered out in not dissimilar circumstances. These agreements would likely be agreed by the United Nations. Although this is hardly essential, it allows the West to save face a little. The only change needed may be to embed de-nazification in the Ukrainian constitution.


Independent State

The model here is the Treaty of Friendship Co-operation and Mutual Assistance. Such treaties were signed between Russia and the two Republics. The mutual assistance provision triggered Russia to come to the Republics aid, push Ukraine from their territories, and end Ukrainian shells and rockets being fired into Lughansk and Donetsk.

I haven't found a copy of the treaty on the web at this time. All we do know is that clause 4 and 5 allow for military assistance to be given to the Republics.

The United States has put trade restrictions on the 2 Republics, and you can be sure that any Ukrainian Oblast that goes down the path to independent state will experience the same blockade. However, it may not be much different to what Odessa, for example, is already experiencing.


The  'Mother of all Treaties'


Russia, I believe, wants a treaty that finally ends the NATO threat. It wants security in Europe for everyone - but not at any given countries expense.

"The thing is that for twenty years, both you, the British, and the Americans, and all other NATO countries were urged to do what all of you subscribed to in 1999: no country shall strengthen its security at the expense of the security of others. Why can’t you do that? Why is it that the commitments signed by your prime minister, the presidents and prime ministers of all other OSCE countries proved to be lies?...You moved closer to our borders on five occasions (a defensive alliance!). The Warsaw Treaty and the USSR are no more. Who are you defending yourselves against? Five times you decided all on your own where your lines of defence would be. What’s that? This smacks of megalomania."
Sergey Lavrov 6 June 2022

Security for all Europe is what the two treaties Russia presented in December 2021 were designed to achieve. I have covered them in my article ' 'Blindsided by Peace?' . If  Ukraine is allowed to join the European Union, Russia's Europe-relevant treaty (the NATO treaty) would then bind Ukraine. If NATO signs it. It may not.

Europe will eventually sign, there is no other sane choice. But US will never 'allow' it, and therefore NATO will have be dissolved first. Once NATO no longer exists, the way is open for the 2008 Security Treaty to be brought back into the light.
"Back in 2008, Russia put forth an initiative to conclude a European Security Treaty under which not a single Euro-Atlantic state or international organisation could strengthen their security at the expense of the security of others. However, our proposal was rejected right off the bat on the pretext that Russia should not be allowed to put limits on NATO activities."
President Putin, February 21, 2022
This will take some time. But I doubt Russia or Ukraine can wait that long. A Russia-Ukraine settlement will have to come now. It will have to include relevant parts of Minsk 2, it will have to include the additional elements I have outlined above.


Breakup of Ukraine

"When at last they [Ukraine] have the grace to suggest resuming the diplomatic process (something, as I understand, the Europeans are insisting they should do, but the Anglo-Saxons [English] do not permit them), we will see what situation has emerged on the ground.
There are liberated areas there. The majority of the population cannot so much as think of returning under the control of the neo-Nazi authorities or the authorities that are in every way conniving at neo-Nazism....
Today I don’t see any possibility for Ukraine to make any proposals, and we are not going to suggest anything either. We have made our proposals long ago. The ball is now in their court. I don’t believe that Kiev will be allowed to resume talks.
Sergey Lavrov 23 June 2022

It is not impossible that the 'dark blue' Russian speaking Oblasts might decide to join Russia, for all sorts of regions - with perhaps a better economic future being the major one. The 'bright green' regions already have an agreement with Poland that gives Poland a high degree of control of those irredeemably white supremicist and pro-Nazi  Oblasts. The poles are members of the European Union (and NATO) and if the bright greens vote to join Poland, their anti-European prejudices will be Poland's to deal with. Why would Russia care? How far could this go? What other post world war 2 'adjustments would be unravelled? John Helmer makes this observation:

"And what if the war ends in the US and NATO alliance retreat to Lvov; after which the Polish government will notify NATO HQ it is reviving its treaty claim to the Galician territory of the Ukraine; ...Berlin will then inform Brussels it requires the return of the ancient Danzig Corridor and Breslau, Polish territories currently called Gdansk, Wroclaw, and the Ziemie Odzyskane; and the Hungarian government will follow suit with the announcement of the recovery of historical Kárpátalja (Transcarpathia), the Zarkarpatska oblast of the Ukraine?

These were the spoils of the World War II settlement between the US and the Soviet Union in 1945-46. The territorial reversion claims aren’t new. What is new is that the US and the NATO alliance, plus the Galician regime still ruling between Kiev and Lvov, also in Ottawa, have aimed to change the terms of the post-war settlement by continuing the war eastward on to the territory of Russia itself, all the way to regime change in Moscow.

That is what Russia says it is fighting now to defend itself against. As Russian officials have been hinting in recent days, the foreign and defence ministries and the intelligence services are currently discussing in the Kremlin Security Council whether Russia’s long-term security on its western front may be best served by terms of a Ukrainian settlement in which the German, Polish, and Hungarian territorial claims are recognised.
John Helmer The US war in Europe isn't hot enough - dropping the climate bomb on Russia 8 June 2022

Crimea is Russian territory, whether the west recognises it or not. This is the reality.



Merge of the Russian and Ukrainian people of the Eastern Oblasts with the Russian Federation

"Citizens of Russia, citizens of the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics, residents of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, deputies of the State Duma, senators of the Russian Federation,

As you know, referendums have been held in the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics and the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. The ballots have been counted and the results have been announced. The people have made their unequivocal choice.

Today we will sign treaties on the accession of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Lugansk People’s Republic, Zaporozhye Region and Kherson Region to the Russian Federation. I have no doubt that the Federal Assembly will support the constitutional laws on the accession to Russia and the establishment of four new regions, our new constituent entities of the Russian Federation, because this is the will of millions of people. (Applause.)

It is undoubtedly their right, an inherent right sealed in Article 1 of the UN Charter, which directly states the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples."
President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin 30 September 2022

"We call on the Kiev regime to immediately cease fire and all hostilities; to end the war it unleashed back in 2014 and return to the negotiating table. We are ready for this, as we have said more than once. But the choice of the people in Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson will not be discussed. The decision has been made, and Russia will not betray it.

Kiev’s current authorities should respect this free expression of the people’s will; there is no other way. This is the only way to peace."

President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin 30 September 2022


Terms of surrender and post-war reconciliation

The reference to "current authorities" suggests that part of terms for peace will include an inclusive government that bars any party with extreme racist views. Perhaps the Russian President is hinting that the Black Sea oblasts will be asked to vote on whether or not they wish to join the Russian Federation, perhaps not. Based on the survey on use of Russian language (above), it seems fairly likely they will vote to join, but if Russia occupies the rest of Ukraine after terms of surrender have been agreed, it must still look after the Ukrainian people as they transition to a new inclusive government.

According to an interview with Scott Ritter on September 30 2022 interview with Andrey Gurulyov, member of the State Duma Defense Committee, demilitarisation will require Russia to occupy the remainder of Ukraine.

A good paper written by
Christopher Knowles in 2013 lists universal principles for an occupying force to follow to ensure peace and stability returns to the occupied country. While he was discussing post war Germany, the principles apply anywhere. The summary covers the main points, and nothing much else needs to be said:

 


After Ukraine, the Main Problem remains unsolved

The US and West simply used the Ukrainian people as their tool to put pressure on Russia, hoping to break Russia up. But the main problem, the intolerable problem, the problem of security in Europe does not go away, regardless of boundaries.



The issue of rockets


There is the enduring issue of rockets. As Ukraine (or Poland, or Romania, or Lithuania, of Finland, or Sweden, or Moldova) is 'donated' bigger, faster, and more sophisticated rockets (or builds them) the deployment distance from the Russian, Donetsk and Lughansk borders will have to increase. In reality, it is not about distance, it is about time from launch to arrive at the target. Russia needs time to alert the layers of defense.  So the faster the rockets go, the further back they must be placed to allow that reaction time, if some limited strategic balance is to be kept.

Ukraine (in particular) is the second largest country in Europe, and that raises the issue that rockets may be concealed. If Russia had to create a patrolled 'demilitarised zone', as they have in Syria, then it would have to be so wide that patrolling in the hope of finding hidden rockets would be impractical.

At some point in technical development rockets will be too fast to be deployed anywhere in Ukraine or adjacent countries. The issue is not so much Ukraine - after all, a treaty can be signed prohibiting weapons over a given caliber/reach. The real issue is rockets deployed in Europe. Whether deployed by NATO, a European army, or some British/Polish cobbled together alignment. And as Russia develops rockets faster than mach 20 (which they already have) Russia's rockets (in a reciprocal agreement) may have to be deployed thousands of kilometers away on Russia's East Coast. This is an absurd situation, and an agreement will have to be reached with Europe on limiting the range of rockets by whatever technical means (such as smaller motors and fuel capacities). This will require dialogue and verification.

"We can see that we are dealing with proactive and talented people, but within the elite, there are also many people who have excessive faith in their exceptionalism and supremacy over the rest of the world.

Of course, it is their right to think what they want. But can they count? Probably they can.

So let them calculate the range and speed of our future arms systems. This is all we are asking: just do the maths first and take decisions that create additional serious threats to our country afterwards. It goes without saying that these decisions will prompt Russia to respond in order to ensure its security in a reliable and unconditional manner.

I have already said this, and I will repeat that we are ready to engage in disarmament talks, but we will not knock on a locked door anymore.

We will wait until our partners are ready and become aware of the need for dialogue on this matter."
Vladimir Putin, February 20, 2019


There are some mutual grievances and differences in approaches to resolving issues but that is no excuse for starting a confrontation like the Cuban Missile Crisis that occurred in the 1960s...If someone wants it, let them have it. I said today what would happen."
Vladimir Putin, February 20, 2019 at a media briefing

Well, the West has destroyed all diplomatic relations with Russia. They have destroyed all treaties that limit the range of rockets in Europe. They have dug themselves into an impressively deep hole. Their diplomacy, when it comes to Russia, is simply incompetent, in the literal sense.



Roadmap to verification

As Scott Ritter points out in his new book 'Disarmament in the Time of Perestroika' we have been here before, we have overcome practical difficulties, and we have achieved arms limitations - to everyone's benefit. We know we can do it because it has been done before.

When Trump arbitrarily pulled out of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, it was clear he wanted to cut another 'deal' that dealt with Russia's hypersonics. Biden has walked right to the very edge of the precipice by running with the aggressive NATO plan, organising and inciting the Ukraine conflict, funding and fanning race hatred, continuing the biggest propaganda program in human history, and imposing an economic blockade on Russia of unparalleled malice - designed to cause as much damage to the Russian people as the effects of war.

America has reached the outer limits of it's malignancy. One step further is destruction.

It is being shown to it's place. And that is not at the head of the table.

"Let me assure you, dear friends, that we are objectively assessing our potentialities: our intellectual, territorial, economic and military potential.
I am referring to our current options, our overall potential.
Consolidating this country and looking at what is happening in the world, in other countries I would like to tell those who are still waiting for Russia’s strength to gradually wane, the only thing we are worried about is catching a cold at your funeral."
Vladimir Putin 22 October 2020


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