Security Shift - The 2026 America - Israel Attack On Iran


by Laurie Meadows
10 March 2026 Last edited 15 April 2026 (NZ time)


"The war will end only when Iran’s adversaries understand they no longer have the right to violate Iranian territory and agree to pay compensation for the damages caused,”
Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, 7 March 2026



US and Israeli Unlawful Aggression
The US, Israel and the Europeans have suffered a strategic defeat   
The US Objectives have only been partly met  
Iran's missile defense and deterrent
Destroy Electricity Generation
How long will the conflict last?
Boots on the ground 
Trump's Retreat
The finale? 
Wild card - US mine control of the Straits of Hormuz
Coming to terms - new realities
joint ventures with Iran
The issue of revenge
Iran uses the wests hybrid war technique 
Will the US, Israel and West capitulate before the global economy collapses 
Iran an ambiguous nuclear weapons state 
Iran Control of the Straits of Hormuz
The Convention regarding the regime of the Hormuz Straits
Time log of the de facto Hormuz Treaty
Iran's Terms  
Forever sanctions
Mediation
US and Israel are guilty of starting an unprovoked war of choice
Compensation
Assessing damages
Gulf countries must compensate for their internationally wrongful acts
A word about payment currency
Consequences of US and Israeli perfidy  
What's Next for the Gulf? 


As I wrote in 2023:

"On the 5th of December 2023 The Russian Federation and Iran signed the "Declaration by the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran on the Ways and Means to Counter, Mitigate and Redress the Adverse Impacts of Unilateral Coercive Measures"...Guideline 6 says "In the event of economic or financial loss incurred as a result of the adoption of unilateral coercive measures, the State that has inflicted such loss on an affected State, individuals and legal entities by its actions or extraterritorial application of its national laws, shall be primarily held liable for compensation and damages."

This is unequivocal. The west will be held liable for damages and compensation. As I predicted here on the 11th of November (above), Russia "is more likely to invoke the international law of State responsibility which requires a state doing a wrong act to make full reparations for a 'wrong act', which comprises any or all of restitution, reparations, and compensation for damage done, both material and moral."

This history made it easy to predict, as I did on the 3rd of March 2026, that Iran will demand reparations for the 28 February unprovoked aggression these two countries launched (without warning) on February 28 2026. The attack was launched in the middle of a truce and peace negotiations. This is a war crime, the crime of perfidy.

"War is essentially an evil thing. Its consequences are not confined to the belligerent States alone, but affect the whole world. To initiate a war of aggression, therefore, is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole."
International Military Tribunal, Nuremburg, The Trial of German Major War Criminals, Judgment: 30th September, 1946 - 1st October, 1946, at "Conspiracy and Aggressive War," p.13.

US and Israeli Unlawful Aggression

'Aggression' was defined by the UN General Assembly in 1974 in UN resolution 3314:

Definition of Aggression
3314 (XXIX). Definition of Aggression
The General Assembly,
Having considered the report of the Special Committee on the Question of Defining Aggression, established pursuant to its resolution 2330 (XXII)· of 18 December 1967, covering the work of its seventh session held from 11 March to 12 April 1974, including the draft Definition of Aggression adopted by the Special Committee by consensus and recommended for adoption by the General Assembly
Deeply convinced that the adoption of the Definition of Aggression would contribute to the strengthening of international peace and security,

Approves the Definition of Aggression, the text of which is annexed to the present resolution;

The General Assembly,
Basing itself on the fact that one of the fundamental purposes of the United Nations is to maintain international peace and security and to take effective collective measures for the prevention arid removal of threats to the peace, and for the suppression of acts of aggression or other breaches of the peace,
Recalling that the Security Council, in accordance with Article 39 of the Charter of the United Nations, shall determine the existence of any threat to the peace, breach of the peace or act of aggression and shall make recommendations, or decide what measures shall be taken in accordance with Articles 41 and 42, to maintain or restore international peace and security,
Recalling also the duty of States under the Charter to settle their international disputes by peaceful means in order not to endanger international peace, security and justice,
Bearing in mind that nothing in this Definition shall be interpreted as in any way affecting the scope of the provisions of the Charter with respect to the functions and powers of the organs of the United Nations,
Considering also that, since aggression is the most serious and dangerous form of the illegal use of force, being fraught, in the conditions created by the existence of all types of
weapons of mass destruction, with the possible threat of a world conflict and all its catastrophic consequences, aggression should be defined at the present stage,

Reaffirming the duty of States not to use armed force to deprive peoples of their right to self-determination, freedom and independence, or to disrupt territorial integrity,
Reaffirming also that the territory of a State shall not be violated by being the object, even temporarily, of military occupation or of other measures of force taken by another State in contravention of the Charter, and that it shall not be the object of acquisition by another State resulting from such measures or the threat thereof,
Reaffirming also the provisions of the Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Co-operation among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations,
Convinced that the adoption of a definition of aggression ought to have the effect of deterring a potential aggressor, would simplify the determination of acts of aggression and the implementation of measures to suppress them and would also facilitate the protection of the rights and lawful interests of, and the rendering of assistance to, the victim,
Believing that, although the question whether an act of aggression has been committed must be considered in the light of all the circumstances of each particular case, it is nevertheless desirable to formulate basic principles as guidance for such determination,

Adopts
the following Definition of Aggression:

Article I
Aggression is the use of armed force by a State against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of another State, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Charter of the United Nations, as set out in this Definition.
Explanatory note: In this Definition the term "State":
(a) Is used without prejudice to questions of recognition or to whether a State is a member of the United Nations;
(b) Includes the concept of a "group of States" where appropriate.

Article 2
The first use of armed force by a State in contravention of the Charter shall constitute prima facie evidence of an act of aggression although the Security Council may, in conformity
with !he Charter, conclude that a determination that an act of aggression has been committed would not be justified in the light of other relevant circumstances, including the fact that the acts concerned or their consequences are not of sufficient gravity.

Article 3
Any of the following acts, regardless of a declaration of war, shall, subject to and in accordance with the provisions of article 2, qualify as an act of aggression:
(a) The invasion or attack by the armed forces of a State of the territory of another State, or any military occupation, however temporary, resulting from such invasion or attack. or any annexation by the use of force of the territory of another State or part thereof;

( b) Bombardment by the armed forces of a State against the territory of another State or the use of any weapons by a State against the territory of another State;

(c) The blockade of the ports or coasts of a State by the armed forces of another State;

(d) An attack by the armed forces of a State on the land, sea or air forces, or marine and air fleets of another State;

(e) The use of armed forces of one State which are within the territory of another State with the agreement of the receiving State, in contravention of thc conditions provided for in the agreement or any extension of their presence in such territory beyond the termination of the agreement;

(f) The action of a State in allowing its territory, which it has placed at the disposal of another State, to be used by that other State for perpetrating an act of aggression against a third State;

(g) The sending by or on behalf of a State of armed bands, groups, irregulars or mercenaries, which carry out acts of armed force against another State of such gravity as to amount to the acts listed above, or its substantial involvement therein.

Article 4
The acts enumerated above are not exhaustive and the Security Council may determine that other acts constitute aggression under the provisions of the Charter.

Article 5
1. No consideration of whatever nature, whether political, economic, military or otherwise, may serve as a justification for aggression.
2. A war of aggression is a crime against international peace. Aggression gives rise to international responsibility.
3. No territorial acquisition or special advantage resulting from aggression is or shall be recognized as lawful.

Article 6
Nothing in this Definition shall be construed as in any way as enlarging or diminishing the scope of the Charter, including its provisions concerning cases in which the use of force is lawful.

Article 7
Nothing in this Definition, and in particular article 3, could in any way prejudice the right to self-determination, freedom and independence, as derived from the Charter, of people forcibly deprived of that right and referred to in the Declaration on Principles of international Law concerning Friendly Relations and Co-operation among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, particularly peoples under colonial and racist regimes or other forms of alien domination; nor the right of these peoples to struggle to that end and to seek and receive support, in accordance with the principles of the Charter and in conformity with the above-mentioned Declaration.

Article 8
In their interpretation and application the above provisions are interrelated and each provision should be construed in the context of the other provisions.

The USA and its Israeli proxy have intentionally done all 7 acts in Article 3 that qualify as acts of aggression.
The US has no leg to stand on. It launched these acts of aggression recklessly, with intent to murder and destroy, well aware aforethought of the pain and suffering its brutal acts would cause, expressing racist, white supremacist and genocidal thoughts. It is strictly criminally liable, accountable, deserving of the highest condemnation, retaliation, retribution, and exemplary compensation.

The moral damage is huge. A perfidious sneak attack, the murder of the head of state, the head of state's daughter-in-law, son and grandchild, the deliberate murder of school children (including a repeat strike, this time with a thermobaric weapon to burn any injured survivors to death in the most horrific manner possible).

America and Israel initiated a war of aggression - the supreme international crime. On this count alone, the compensation due is immense.

"Iran’s Ministry of Health announced that more than 15,000 citizens have been injured since the start of the US-Israeli aggression on Iran.

According to the ministry, 12,495 people have already been treated and discharged from hospitals, while 670 surgical operations have been successfully performed. Currently, 1,682 injured individuals remain hospitalized, receiving ongoing medical care.

The ministry noted that the healthcare workforce has also been affected, with 12 medical staff members wounded and 72 others sustaining injuries while performing their duties.

Additionally, the war has caused significant damage to healthcare infrastructure, including 87 health units, 24 treatment centers, 21 emergency bases, and 18 ambulances, further straining the country’s medical response capabilities.

Earlier today, Iran’s Emergency Organization announced that the number of victims since the start of the US-Israeli aggression against the country has risen to 1,348 martyrs...civilian casualties continuing to rise"
?9 March 2026

Add in the material damage - the homes destroyed, the hospitals damaged, the commercial buildings damaged, the military facilities, the oil refinery, the water desalination plant, the aircraft, the ships, the medical supply sterilisation units, the ambulances destroyed, the police stations, the pharmaceuticals manufacturing facilities - the list goes on and on. Destroyed or damaged.The aggressors must pay to re-build, restore and repair everything they damaged.

Add in the human losses. The civilians, the government personnel from police through medical staff, the local government officials, and, of course university staff. Killed or wounded. That's without accounting for military commanders, soldiers, airmen and sailors killed or wounded. The attack on the oil refinery spread toxic fumes over Tehran. There will be damaged lungs and increases in cancers as a result. Each and every injured person must be paid compensation. And for the injured, the permanently maimed, that payment must compensate the family dependents for the entire course of a natural life.

Seyed Abbas Araghchi
@araghchi

Israel's bombings of fuel depots in Tehran violate international law and constitute ecocide.
Residents face long-term damage to their health and well-being. Contamination of soil and groundwater could have generational impacts.

Israel must be punished for its war crimes.
2:33 PM · Mar 16, 2026

Walter
@googlexrp

Burning petroleum releases sulfur and nitrogen oxides that mix with rain to form sulfuric and nitric acid, essentially turning rainfall toxic.

When Saddam burned Kuwaiti oil wells in 1991, the fallout contributed to what became known as Gulf War Syndrome, with veterans developing chronic illness and cancer decades later.

The difference now: this isn’t a desert battlefield, it’s a city of 10 million people, most of which women and children.

2:37 PM · Mar 16, 2026

Normally, both the USA and Israel would refuse to pay, or offer token payments - which they will later renege on. Only the defeated are forced to pay compensation. The question then is 'has America in effect suffered a strategic defeat'?


The US, Israel and the Europeans have suffered a strategic defeat


The US and Europe initiated a hybrid war on the Russian Federation, using their Ukrainian proxy as their 'boots on the ground'. So-called 'sanctions' made up the other part of the hybrid war. The intention in Russia's case was to inflict what Biden called "a strategic defeat" on Russia. While the US could impose a sea blockade on Venezuela, they could not blockade Russia.

In Iran's case, the west hoped to provoke domestic opposition to the government through the classic techniques the US has always used to overthrow governments around the world. Paying small groups of dissidents to riot, massive interference in government via US funded propaganda channels, and, above all brutal 'sanctions'. The intention was to immiserate the population. But nothing worked. So the 28 February surprise attack was intended to murder as many leaders of civil society and the military as possible. That, too didn't work.

At the time of first writing, 2130hrs 10 March 2026 (NZDT) Iran continues to defend itself by destroying US bases in the region and by significantly de-militarising Israel. And, while the US has been able to bomb Iran with 500lb glide bombs, Iran has used relatively light missiles and very light drones to destroy radars and selected military equipment. The missile campaign is likely to increase to match the US use of heavy bombs. The Iranian missiles have free access to Israeli airspace. The Iranian missiles have radar jammers and use 'chaff' to provide false targets to the Israeli intercept missiles. The US and Israeli missile defense batteries are both overwhelmed and of very low effectiveness anyway in the face of the Iranian countermeasures.

Once Iran moves to heavy missiles the cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa are able to be destroyed (literally). Large numbers in a small space create a radius of overlapping overpressure that causes damage not dissimilar to a small nuclear bomb. Without the radioactive fallout, and probably without the firestorm. And without the long term increase in cancers.

The only response from Israel or the US would be a strike on Iran with nuclear weapons. The laws of war require proportionality, and the effect of an atomic bomb would be disproportionate. The Americans and Israelis have exempted themselves from International law, and the laws of war in particular. They consider that themselves 'chosen', superior to everyone else. But even ethnosupremacists cannot take the risk that Iran will not assemble a nuclear weapon deep underground in some part of that vast country and respond to Israel's arrogant perfidy with nuclear obliteration.


The US Objectives have only been partly met


It is clear that Trump is slowly preparing the public mind for a declaration of "success".

Trump will then declare he has ended the war and attained his objectives, which are:
1. Destroyed the navy
2. Destroyed Irans missile capability
3. Ended Irans work towards a nuclear weapon
4. Forcibly replace the elected Iranian government in order to seize control of Iranian oil and gas. As the US did in 1953 (assisted by the UK).

1. Navy
Yes, Trump has destroyed Iran's larger naval vessels. But large ships are worthless for a defensive military with limited air defenses and no real airforce. They are a sitting duck for missiles. US naval ships there are also useless for exactly the the same reason.

Trump knows that Iran may already be able to hit a US carrier in the Mediterranean. Iran has chosen not to do so - yet.

But Iran has fast small missile carrying boats that are hard to hit. And small submarines. And mine-laying capacity. And undersea drones. And small surface drone. And bases to hide them in. Many can be pulled out of the water and hidden until needed.

There is no doubt that the problem of finding and targeting large naval vessels has been solved by linked autonomous, solar re-charging, loitering sea drones. These are in constant communication with the command center by satellite. It is an open question as whether or not Iran already has such drones. MIlitary-political analyst Patricia Marins summarised the strategic shift on January 11 2026:

"Solid-State Batteries: Wolfpacks of Small UUVs Will Dominate the Seas

UUVs are currently the most dangerous threat to submarines and military surface ships. Their development is accelerating rapidly, and I would argue that the smallest ones are the most dangerous.

This week, the first solid-state battery ready for mass production was announced, with an energy density of 400 Wh/kg. By 2028, several companies are promising to reach 600 Wh/kg, roughly 3–4 times the density of today’s lithium-ion batteries.

This will completely transform naval warfare

It not only renders conventional diesel-electric submarines obsolete but also creates an entirely new category of UUVs: small, mini, and extremely fast.

I’m talking about UUVs in the 250–350 kg weight, capable of sprint speeds of 45–50 knots.

They would carry a compact 50 kg warhead using modern explosives, including CL-20-based mixtures, inside a fuselage largely composed of solid-state battery cells, supplemented by a small 2.5 kVA gasoline generator with a snorkel for recharging.

These UUVs could be air-dropped, ships, submarines, from aircraft or larger drones, and operate in Wolfpack, sprinting up to 35 km to engage targets.

If the target pulls out of range, the onboard AI calculates that interception is no longer feasible and switches to recharge mode, surfacing discreetly, running the generator, and continuing to track the target via periscope or mast-mounted sensors. It analyzes surface images, estimates target course and speed, and calculates the exact energy needed for a new high-speed intercept, also getting data from satellites or drones, composing a versatile kill web.

A true high-tech wolfpack: persistent, autonomous, and capable of engaging both surface ships and submerged submarines (by forcing them to surface or detecting them when they snorkel).

Warhead design is evolving toward combined shaped charge + blast configurations: an initial shaped charge penetrates the outer hull or Kevlar spall liners (creating a breach and injecting energy), followed immediately by the main high-explosive blast that causes flooding, shock damage to equipment, and internal compartment failure.

This mirrors the mechanism of modern lightweight torpedoes.

A UUV carrying just 50 kg of advanced explosive in such a warhead would be capable of breaching the pressure hull of a Virginia-class submarine or the hull of an Arleigh Burke-class or Type 055 destroyers, causing serious flooding and likely achieving at least a mission kill. In successive impacts from a wolfpack, the damage would be catastrophic, comparable to that inflicted by an Mk 54 or MU90 torpedo.

Another key development is the refinement of UUV AI to prioritize initial strikes against propulsion systems (shafts, propellers, reduction gears, or waterjets), maximizing the chance of immobilizing the target early.

These are fully autonomous units that can loiter for weeks, hunting targets, making independent decisions, and even receiving software updates while recharging on the surface.

They fit into a broader ecosystem of UUVs,  primarily propeller-driven, torpedo-shaped vehicles weighing 250–350 kg with warheads of 50–100 kg,  but the range of designs and capabilities is expanding fast.

Their cost is orders of magnitude lower than any manned ship or submarine, and effective countermeasures do not yet exist. We are talking about a technology that could put billions of dollars in naval investments at risk.

The trend is clear: UUVs will continue to get cheaper, faster, longer-ranging, and smarter, while traditional platforms (surface ships and submarines) only become more expensive and vulnerable.

These wolfpacks will be supported and coordinated by drones, satellites, and motherships.

Just as drones have reshaped land warfare, UUV swarms are doing the same at sea."
Patricia Marins, Military-Geopolitical analys, X platform 11 January 2026

2. Missiles First edited 13 March 2026
"What I'm trying to do here is give you a case of why things are going to go to hell in a handbasket as this war goes on—with regard to attacks against US bases in the Persian Gulf from drones as well as ballistic missiles, but also damage to Israel itself from ballistic missiles. This is going to go downhill big, and we're only beginning to see how bad it's going to get."

(Professor Postol goes on to describe Irans ability to use electronic jamming and metallic 'chaff' to defeat US & Israeli defense missiles)

"So all these missile defenses - whether strategic or tactical- are worthless.

All this money spent and all these false claims that we can protect the public from ballistic missiles are now being shown to be false... I've been talking about this for 35 years.

I showed to the International Institute for Strategic Studies—people said, "What can we do about it?" I was in London 35 years ago; people came to me and said, "What can we do about it, Dr. Postol?" And I said, "I'm telling you because I'm trying to alert you to the fact that you can be defeated, and there are no countermeasures to these." I'm trying to warn you that you cannot deal with these things when the adversary chooses to react.

[they replied] "Oh, you're a negative person."  Well, I'm just a scholar trying to inform you of what's technically doable on both sides..."
Ted Postol, Physicist, MIT Professor and Pentagon advisor (Retired) 9 March 2026

Irans regional-deterrent missile capability is far from destroyed, hidden underground. Advances in missile tech continue. Accurate and unstoppable. Equipped with highly effective chaff and radar jamming. Soon with ICBM capability. And, as Professor Postol points out there are no countermeasures.

Israeli and American radars have been destroyed. Warning of incoming missiles has been reduced to minutes. The Thaad and Patriot interceptors are demonstrably ineffective. Even cheap drones powered by 'lawnmower engines' - but linked to, and guided by irdium satellite feeds - are flying through Israeli and Gulf country airspace without being shot down.

The US and Israel are exhausting both their attack and defense missiles. They are turning to 'iron bombs' fitted with glide kits and standoff aircraft launched missiles, because, for the most part, they cannot risk entering Iranian airspace.

The pace of air sorties is wearing down men and equipment. Logistic bases they rely on are now much further away.

"In that last interview I did on the fifth day, I said, we have passed the peak and are heading downhill. Meaning because we hit the radar and the infrastructure.

Today, Trump and Netanyahu are trapped in a slaughterhouse in the Persian Gulf.

Look, the big mistake they made was that they came and designed a short-term war, but they didn't realize this might turn into a long-term one.
Even the greatest international powers, if they initially plan for a short-term war and halfway through it becomes a long-term war, no matter how much power they have, they will be defeated. Why?

Because short-term wars have a specific design. They require limited logistics and limited preparations. A long-term war requires abundant logistics, extensive planning, and they have to anticipate many consequences.

They thought the Islamic Republic would be finished in 48 hours. First, they brought one aircraft carrier, then recently they said, for precaution, let's take another ship too.
But now they are saying, we must bring whatever ships we have from anywhere in the world so maybe we can handle this....

They came for 48 hours, now if they want to stay long-term, from the fatigue of the forces to the shortage of ammunition, they will be burdened with other problems.
Iranian Brigadier General Masoud Akhtari 9 March 2026

Iran's missile defenses are its strategic weapons. They won't give them up, and they will continue refining them and extending their range.

"Vast majority of the British People do not want any part in the Israel-U.S. war of choice on Iran.
Ignoring his own People, Mr. Starmer is putting British lives in danger by allowing UK bases to be used for aggression against Iran. Iran will exercise its right to self-defense."
Seyed Abbas Araghchi 21 March 2026


"Iran reveals new missiles and targets Diego Garcia. Far from showing a reduction in power, the Iranian arsenal continues to expand.
The WSJ has confirmed that hours ago, following the UK’s approval for the US to use its bases in the conflict, Iran launched two ballistic missiles."
Patricia Marins 21 March 2026

Missiles will be able to push American carriers further and further away, forcing them to rely aerial re-fueling, which creates vulnerability to SAM anti-aircaft missiles. A third stage added to the Khorramshahr-4 will enable it to reach almost anywhere in Europe.

At the moment the Khorramshahr-4's range of around of over 2,000 km can hit NATO Aegis ashore batteries in Romania, the Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base NATO operational hub on the Black Sea, Souda Bay naval and airbase facility in Greece, and Bezmer airbase in Bulgaria.
 
"What the Iranian people want is the continuation of an effective defense that makes the enemy regret...

Studies have been conducted regarding opening other fronts where the enemy has minimal experience and where it would be highly vulnerable. Should the war continue, activation of such fronts will be carried out based on certain interests."
Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei 12 March 2026

These are obvious targets. Less obvious is the South Stream leg of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) bringing decompressed natural gas to Germany, Italy and Austria. If the pipelines (or pumps) in Italy are blown up, it will serve the interests of Russia as the Russia-Turkiye TurkStream pipeline would likely be expanded. These large expensive gas-turbine compressors would take at least months, and probably years, to replace.

There are large LNG decompression facilities in the Mediterranean, but a strike on these would be catastrophic, so they won't be touched. Iranians are not ethnosupremacists, unlike some western countries.

With further work, an Iranian 'Khorramshahr-5' would put the Straits of Gibraltar in range, which means that Iran would have finally 'collected the set'.

This is one of the 2 major reasons why this article is titled 'Security Shift'.


3. Nuclear Weapon


""I can remind your audience about the capabilities of Iran as a nuclear weapon state.

It is not a non-nuclear weapon state. It is not a nuclear weapon state that has built a nuclear weapon, at least as far as we know. But it is a threshold state that could build a nuclear weapon on very short notice.

And it would not be possible to stop them from building a nuclear weapon - even if you were using nuclear weapons on Iran while they were constructing it.

They have enough enriched uranium hexafluoride to construct 10 atomic bombs, which would be far more than enough to finish off Israel as a state... 10 nuclear weapons would be far more than needed to end Israel as a state.

There is no way to stop Iran.

Basically, what you need to do could be easily housed in a tunnel that's not necessarily especially large. You could do the final enrichment to get weapons-grade uranium and build a nuclear weapon that does not need to be tested. It's important to understand this is a uranium weapon, and it would not need to be tested—it is well within the reach of Iran to build these nuclear weapons. So we need to start thinking about the possibility we could see nuclear weapons used.

Now, I do not think Iran will use nuclear weapons against Israel first, but as this war goes on, Israel's situation is going to continue to deteriorate. ..."
Ted Postol, Physicist, MIT Professor and Pentagon advisor (Retired) 9 March 2026

Iran is now an ambiguous nuclear weapons state. The US murdered the Supreme Leader who prohibited Iran from having a nuclear weapon. The new Supreme Leaders attitude is not yet known. Iran slowly and progressively enriched uranium to just below weapons grade in an attempt in response to the west's craven failure to honour its side of the agreement to lift sanctions in return to stringent inspections of Iran's peaceful-purpose nuclear enrichment program.

Trump knew the 60% level put them 2 weeks from a a capacity to build 10 nuclear bombs. He knew at least before June 4 2025, when Tulsi Gabbard visited Hiroshima (ostensibly privately) when visiting a US military facility nearby. She knew Iran was a latent nuclear state. She was criticised for not mentioning the fact that America is the country that committed that crime. She omitted naming any country because she was revealing to those with ears to hear that the USA was aware Iran was at least a latent nuclear state.

She knew the only course was concessions, removing the sanctions in return for verification. In the discussions immediately before the perfidious 28 February sneak attack on Iran, Iran agreed to down-blend the enriched uranium under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision, which US observers for verification. Iran even agreed to discussion on bringing its missiles into the 500 kilometer maximum range under the Intermediate range missile agreement that Trump himself destroyed. The US got everything it claimed wanted. On a platter. The Omani mediators confirmed it. Presumably, the Iranians got sanctions relief.

Trump had a slam dunk solution.

It is clear to me, at least, that Gabbard was promoting exactly this diplomatic solution. Yet Trump ignored her advice and chose violence.

Why? No one knows. Maybe because he sent incompetent people (his son-in-law, and a real estate friend) to a technical discussion. One whose details they misunderstood, and whose reports back to the President were simply false and misleading.

"Seyed Abbas Araghchi
@araghchi

Factual knowledge matters.

Case 1: Iran's proposal to ensure NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS was dismissed because U.S. counterparts didn't grasp the technical details."
13 March 2026

Trump forced Iran into now having to choose whether or not to become a declared nuclear weapons power.

Notably, nuclear powers are immune from attack from the USA.


4. Overthrow the Iranian Government First edited 11 March 2026. Last edited 12 March 2026

"Iran is much more confident now about itself. And  great harm has been done to its people by adversaries. And Iran sees its strength. The people see their strength. The people on the streets recognize their strength. And this is a reality that the Americans are going to have to deal with from now on."
Professor Seyed Marandi 10 March 2026

This is barely worth discussion. Iran is a thousands of years old civilisation, with a strong tradition of resistance to wrong doing and injustice. This is not 1953. People hold strong opinions, but they do not abandon their country when attacked by barbarians from outside.

"...the bottom line here is the bombs change the political game inside of the target. It infuses nationalism inside the target because they may not like their leader, but do they really want to be run by Donald Trump out of the Oval Office? And ...he picks the leader as he's clearly saying he wants to do ? And he'll kill his way there if necessary? This is not going to work.

And what you're seeing is it's a self-defeating strategy. It's not just a strategy hasn't been tried enough...I've debated these folks for decades here. Since 91,92 I've been debating them and all. Done it in front of the German Air Force, Norwegian Air Force, so all these excuses why it doesn't work, we've tried them all...And the reason is ...that bombs produce game-changing nationalism inside of the society that fuses the society and the regime closer together.

...it means the strategy itself is self-contradictory. It's self-defeating. ...my goodness gracious, when you have a distribution of 100% over a hundred years and you're dealing with dozens and dozens of cases by different country, different actors, different presidents, dot dot dot, you got to start to understand the problem is probably with the strategy."
Dr. Robert Pape, Professor of political science at the University of Chicago, specializing in security affairs. 11 March 2026 "

Bombing doesn't work. In Iran's case it not only consolidates the population, it adds massively to the bill that the perpetrators of the bombing will have to pay. Bearing in mind the war is an unprovoked war of aggression, the exemplary damages alone will be huge (let alone punitive damages, and actual damages).

Trump, observing the Russian campaign of destroying Ukrainian power facilities, threatens Iran with such a strike, claiming it will take 25 years to recreate them.

First, the Russian strikes are in response to Ukrainian terrorist attacks on its own infrastructure and civilian population. Similarly, if USA struck Iranian electric power plants, Iran would respond in a similar manner. But as it can't (yet) reach USA, they will attack Israeli power plants. Keep in mind 60-80% of Israeli drinking water comes from 6 desalination plants. And massive industrial gas turbines account for 70% to 75% of the country's total electricity generation. They would take years to replace.

Destroy Electricity Generation First edited 14 March 2026 Last edited 24 March 2026
Second while Trump says he could destroy Iran's electricity generation capacity, 85% comes from natural gas generators. But relatively few use highly advanced Iranian heavy duty type F turbines. In the best case it would take 12 months to replace one. More realistically, 2 years per turbine.

There are around 130 very well distributed reasonable size electric power generating plants in Iran (counting small generating facilities there could be maybe 500 or so). About 100 of the bigger facilities run on natural gas, with some being the highly efficient combined cycle plants. Dozens of the plants are medium to large. Only a few power plants are very large, and even those produce under 3% of Iran's total electricity capacity of around 98,800–102,000 MW. For example, the Damavand gas powered electric power station (2,868 MW) in Tehran produces about 2.9% of Iran's power, the next 2 largest produce about 2,000 MW. There are about 20 power plants that produce 1,000 MW or more. There is a gas-powered electricity powerplant at Bushehr with a capacity of about 50MW, and also a nuclear power plant producing 1,000 MW (currently being expanded in a Russia-Iran joint venture). 

If Trump hits all the modern type F turbines it would take about 22 years to replace them. (The global order books for class F heavy turbines are all full. Replacements simply aren't available.) But that still amounts to only about 5,000 to 10,000 MW out of a total about 100,000 MW nationally. Iran's grid is interconnected, and power can be redistributed around the country. Load-shedding would cause temporary blackouts, but again, Iran is well provided with substations, and has a good level of redindancy.

On the declared Iranian principle of 'security for all or insecurity for all' Iran could force Saudi Arabia and UAE to expeditiously build and re-route the Saudi-Greek interconnector and the UAE-backed Egypt-Italy Interconnector to replace the lost power. But Trump is unlikely to knock them all out, or even knock a significant number out. The Gulf could be closed to adversaries until the temporary power supply is in place and compensation (in gold) is pre-paid to restore the generation capacity with Iran's highly advanced 'type F' heavy turbine manufacturing plant.

If Chinese contractors are involved, it might be possible to connect Iran to Saudi excess power within 2 years. That's how long Iran's adversaries will be without Gulf oil and natural gas. The nett result will be windfall profits for Saudi and Russian oil and gas supplies. It will then be a race against time to re-supply Iran with electricity and open the Gulf before the western globe falls into a severe economic recession and high inflation (cutting oil demand and dropping oil prices).

So Trump can destroy power plants and cause some pain to Iranian people. But he can't magically repair and restore the turbines he wrecks. The Iranians will fully understand that. And Trump knows it as well.

Damaging Iranian power infrastructure also damages or even totally destroys Israeli power infrastructure, as night follows day.

"Iran's national infrastructure is under attack. This time, a branch of my country's oldest bank was bombed while full of employees. They were laboring to ensure Iranians have food on the table ahead of our New Year.

Our Powerful Armed Forces will exact retribution for this crime"
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi 12 March 2026

"the enemy has opened the door for us to target economic centers and banks affiliated with the US and Israel in the region.”
 Lieutenant Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaqari 12 March 2026

On the 12th of March the US destroyed an Iranian bank. Iran promised to strike US banks throughout the Gulf. Once again, any attack on Iranian infrastructure will be met by a mirror resonse on US and Israeli infrastructure.

"Today, our verdict is the rule of 'an eye for an eye', straightforward, without exception… If they start a war on infrastructure, we will undoubtedly target theirs."

“The enemy should know that whatever they do, it will undoubtedly face a proportional and immediate response; no act of aggression will go unanswered"
Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament 

The US threatened Iranian commercial ports. Iran promised to destroy Israeli and Gulf ports.

"On Wednesday, the spokesman of Iran’s Armed Forces warned that all ports and economic centers in Persian Gulf littoral states will be considered legitimate targets for Iran if the United States attacks Iranian ports as part of the ongoing joint aggression with Israel against the country.

“If the US follows through with its threat against Iran’s ports, there will definitely be no port, economic center, or location in the Persian Gulf that could remain beyond our reach, and they will be struck as legitimate targets,” Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi said."
PressTV News 12 March 2026 

Boots on the ground added 17 march 2026

Seyed Abbas Araghchi
@araghchi
When the U.S. Secretary of War declares “no quarter”, he doesn't project strength. He conveys moral bankruptcy and ignorance about law of armed conflict.
We advise him to review the Hague Convention and Rome Statute of the ICC, unless he aspires to join Netanyahu as war criminal.
8:35 AM · Mar 17, 2026

Several highly respected military commentators such as Scott Ritter, Andrei Martyanov, and Douglas macGregor  have explained the impossibility of a US land force overthrowing the Iranian people's government. Peter Brian Hegseth, the crazed crusader from the US Defense Department has incited US troops to commit war crimes, which American domestic law prohibits them from obeying. Iran calmly says it is waiting for the American troops to arrive. They will be all killed or captured. And then Iran will issue an arrest warrant for Peter Brian Hegseth for war crimes.

Trump's Retreat
 
The Kharg Island misdirection First edited 4 April 2026
On March 14 the US destroyed all the military installations protecting the Kharg Island oil terminal handling almost all Iran's oil exports. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's oil terminal infrastructure unless Iran opened the Straits of Hormuz. Perhaps he calculates the Iranians won't carry out their threat to destroy Gulf country oil infrastructure in reprisal. If so, he might think if he airdrops troops onto the Island the Iranians won't fire on them because Iranian fire would destroy their Iran's own infrastructure. He is wrong. Iran would not hesitate to fire on US military on the island. Iran can remain calm in the face of hitting its own infrastructure because Gulf states will then have to pay Iran the lost export income.  They will have to pay until such until such time as the oil terminal is repaired (and why would Iran hurry?). There is another possibility, albeit a little farfetched.

Iran won't talk to USA, for obvious reasons. In the meantime, the Gulf countries are extremely worried. (Amongst many other things, the Umrah religious pilgrimage to Mecca season is only 7 months away, and requires a huge logistic effort to accommodate flights, food, hotels etc for Muslim pilgrims visiting from all over the world)  But as food supplies shorten, tourism ends, belts tighten, so the discontent of the populations of these feudal family-owned governments increases.

Donald J. Trump
@realDonald Trump
The United States of America has beaten and completely decimated Iran, both Militarily, Economically, and in every other way, but the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage, and we will help - A LOT!

The U.S. will also coordinate with those Countries so that everything goes quickly, smoothly, and well.

This should have always been a team effort, and now it will be - It will bring the World together toward Harmony, Security, and Everlasting Peace!
President DONALD J. TRUMP
Mar 14, 2026, 7:58 PM

Perhaps, behind the scenes, via the Omanis, the Gulf states, plus EU countries, Japan, Korea - whoever has some money - have agreed to Iran's reparations demand. After all, the alternative is global depression. Reparations will also have to be paid to the Houthi, who control the Red Sea, and thus the passage of oil carriers loading from the Saudi Red Sea pipeline (very large crude carriers are too big for the Suez canal end of the Red Sea). Perhaps reparations will have to be paid to Hezbollah for the intentionally wrongful acts of Israel and the USA.

Perhaps it was tacitly 'agreed' Trump could strike the military sites on Kharg Island. Iran claims, and it seems correct, no one was harmed and the site is still functional and loading out oil.

Meanwhile, Trump dispatched the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit along with the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, allegedly to Kharg Island. This seems like theater, a dramatic theatrical element for Trump to show the American public the power of the USA military (Treasury Secretary Bessant is so impressed with the US military he wants his teenage son to ultimately join). A further amphibious vessel was dispatched, due about mid April.

It is shaping up for Trump to assemble some US and vassal state ships around the Gulf 'to protect' ships entering and leaving. Around 1,000 kilometers out to sea to avoid Iranian missiles, of course. It seems to me that Trump will try to use Japan and some other countries (or even the amphibious ships) to seize any shiploads of oil that haven't paid in dollars. This, as is usual, would backfire on him.

Crossing the finish line before its too late
In this scenario, Iran runs the Strait in line with a de facto 'Hormuz Treaty' (outlined below), but in actuality allows all ships (except US and Israeli) passage as long as the unfriendly countries continue to pay the toll. Trump hinted at this. When he said "the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage" the term "take care of" should be understood as 'take care of the bill'.

But Iran goes on bombing Israel for all the reasons I outlined here. And again, this is hinted at by 'former' American security official Joseph Kent.

The American polity reject the notion that America should go to war on behalf of Israel's expansionist plans, and the same 'former' official more or less confirms that Israel will have to stop its regional aggressions permanently, or it won't receive US weapons or backing.

On the 21 March 2026 Trump signaled that he is about ready to wash his hands of his misadventure:

"We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran:
(1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them.
(2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base.
(3) Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry.
(4) Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place.
(5) Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others.

The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!
If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated.
Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them.
Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Mar 21, 2026, 10:13 AM

Trump has promised Gulf leaders personal protection as long as they pay in dollars - that's how I read it.

"“Today we are talking about certain leaks in which the American president is demanding that the GCC states pay approximately $5 trillion if they want this war to continue, and if they want it to stop, they must pay $2.5 trillion to the United States for what has been accomplished over the past period...”
Salem Al-Jahouri, Omani journalist and international affairs researcher 20 March 2026

Trumps signal follows the shoot down of an F35, and March 20 alleged fire of Iranian advanced missiles at the UK-US base on Diego Garcia (later denied by Iran, and so opening up other questions).

Trump can later blame Netanyahu - and some of his staff - for dragging America into an unwanted war, but now he can claim (falsely) he has met all his aims. He can falsely claim Iran is a "terrorist" (but no one cares about this garbage-talk any more). He can claim that he, Trump, has brought peace to the region blah, blah, blah. But no one cares what he says to his domestic audience. It is over.

"Americans haven’t forgotten how, even as hundreds of U.S. soldiers were dying in Vietnam, and the outcome was already clear, General William Westmoreland was flown home to reassure everyone that the war was going well — that the U.S. was “winning.”
The media haven’t forgotten either; those briefings full of fantasy from the frontlines became infamous as the “Five O’Clock Follies."

Fast forward to today: same script, different stage; Hegseth steps up, and the message is still detached from reality.

U.S. government says one thing, reality says another.
Right as U.S. authorities claim Iran’s air defences are gone, an F-35 gets hit.
As they declare Iran’s navy finished, USS Gerald Ford turns back, and USS Abraham Lincoln drifts farther away
Different decade, same “we’re winning”"
Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Foreign Minister, Islamic Republic of Iran 21 March 2026

Trumps claims to dominate the skies over Iran has gone, and his claim of having destroyed Iran's missiles is looking more ridiculous every day. He will have to act very fast. I previously predicted that he would announce the end of his war on monday 23rd (making money on the futures market on the way). This seemed increasingly likely. But if not that Monday then midweek (a good news drop time) or the following monday. As it turns out, he let the opportunity slip through his hands. As he so often does.

The finale? Added Sunday 22 March 2026. First edited 23 March 2026. Last edited 4 April 2026
On Saturday 21 March 2026, after the USrael attacked Irans peaceful nuclear research facility, Iran attacked and damaged Israel's Dimona research facility on Sunday 22 March. This exchange could, in my opinion, be seen as the final act that forces Israel to join the nuclear non proliferation treaty (NPT) and be subject to exactly the same inspection regimes that all signatories (including Iran) are subject to.

In my view, that was the final matter for the behind-the-scenes-negotiations to resolve. That assessment is bolstered by a message from Trump making absurd hyper-threats

"If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!
Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"
Mar 22, 2026, 12:44 PM

He is using 'coercive urgency' by providing a defined timeline. As I have already explained, if Iran's power plants are extensively hit - not easy to do - Iran might require power to be fed from Saudi Arabia for the next 25 years (for free) while turbines are re-built.

"Spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters:
Following previous warnings, if Iran’s fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked, all US and Israeli energy, IT, and water desalination infrastructure _ will be targeted."
Iran Nuances 22 March 2026

At this date, Israel has run out of air defense missiles, and Iran has free rein to strike Israel even with low end ballistic missiles. Obviously, Iran will destroy all Israel's electric power if Trump carries out the threat. Then Israel will have no water (I doubt other Gulf countries desalination would be attacked). It will be an urgent humanitarian disaster, and a massive wave of Arabs and colonists will have to emigrate to the adjacent region, Europe, and beyond.

This is likely Trump's last piece of theatre, a chest-thumping demonstration of how powerful Trump is, and how he is forcing Iran to 'open' the Straits. Iran can't complete the taxing of the Strait until its parliament passes the appropriate law. By a stunning coincidence, the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) is currently discussing a bill that puts this very provision in place. Should be voted on soon.

On Monday 23 March 2026 Trump announced a 5 day extension until Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time. He claimed was in talks with Iran, and laid out the terms allegedly under discussion.  Some of which was completely misunderstood by both the mainstream press and the alt press.

"Uh, we have had very, very strong talks. We'll see where they lead. We have point -- major points of agreement; I would say almost all points of agreement. Perhaps that hasn't been conveyed. The communication, as you know, has been blown to pieces.

They're unable to talk to each other. But we've had very strong talks. Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner had them.  Uh, they went, I would say, perfectly. I would say that if they carry through with that, it'll end that that problem, that conflict, and I think it will end it very, very substantially.

We have very much in mind, our partners in the Middle East. We have great relationships with a lot of them, as you know. A lot of them were surprisingly hit, and I was surprised to see it and so was everyone else. But we have -- uh, they're very much in mind in the discussions. So the discussions took place yesterday. They went into yesterday evening. Uh, they want very much to make a deal. We'd like to make a deal too.

We're going to get together today by, probably phone, because it's very hard to find a country. It's very hard for them to get out, I guess. But we'll at some point very, very soon meet. We're doing a five-day period. We'll see how that goes. And if it goes well, we're going to end up with settling this. Otherwise, we'll just keep bombing our little hearts out

Reporter: Who is Steve speaking with, Mr. President?
A top -- a top person. Don't forget, we've wiped out the leadership phase one, phase two, and largely phase three. But we're dealing with a man who I believe is the most respected and the leader. You know, it's a little tough. They've wiped out -- we've wiped out everybody.No, not the supreme leader. We don't -- well, nobody's ever -- nobody heard of the second supreme leader, the son. Nobody -- we have not heard from the son. Every once in a while, you see a statement made, but we haven't -- we don't know if he's living. But the people that seem to be running it and they seem that based on really fact because things they've said have taken place.
Reporter: Mr. President -- Can you say where that is?
I can't. I can't, because I don't want them to be killed. OK? I don't want them to be killed. Nobody wants to be that -- nobody wants that job right now, you know? Nobody's exactly looking forward to being the head of that particular country, but perhaps we'll be able to solve that problem.

Reporter: What exactly are you looking for in these talks, Mr. President?
We're looking for all of the things that we've been talking about.
We want to see no nuclear bomb, no nuclear weapon, not even close to it,
low key in the missiles.
We want to see peace in the Middle East.
We want -- the nuclear dust, we're going to want that, and I think we're going to get that. We've agreed to that.
Yeah, and we want no enrichment, but we also want the enriched uranium.

We're -- if this happens, it's a great start for Iran to build itself back and it's everything that we want. And it's also great for Israel and it's great for the other Middle Eastern countries, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, all of them, Kuwait and Bahrain, in particular.

Reporter: If these talks go well and you reach a ceasefire agreement with Iran, do you believe Israel would abide by that agreement?
I think Israel will be very happy with what we have. We just spoke to Israel a little while ago. I think they'll be very happy. This will be peace for Israel, long-term peace, guaranteed peace.

If this happens, and I can't guarantee it, but I think it's going to. My life is a deal. That's all I do is deals, my whole life. I think this is something that's going to happen. And why wouldn't it happen? So tomorrow morning sometime, their time, we were expected to blow up their largest electric generating plants that cost over $10 billion to build. It's a very good one. There was no dearth of money. And one shot, it's gone, it collapses. Why would they want that?

So they called. I didn't call, they called.

They want to make a deal. And we are very willing to make a deal. It's got to be a good deal and it's got to be no more wars, no more nuclear weapons. They're not going to have nuclear weapons anymore. They're agreeing to that. Any of that stuff, there's no deal.

Reporter: Have they offered to reopen -- How are you -- you said you want to get the enriched uranium. How are you going to get the enriched uranium? Are you going to send --

Well, it's very easy. If we have a deal with them, we're going down and we'll take it ourselves.

...You're talking about a country that has been evil for 47 years.They've been horrible, death all over the world, not just us. Look at the way they attacked, unexpectedly, all of those countries surrounding them. That was not supposed to -- nobody was even thinking about it, but they wanted to take over the Middle East, and they wanted to knock out Israel permanently. And if they had a nuclear weapon, they would have been able to do that.

Reporter: He [Joesph Kent] said Iran was not an imminent threat, that that's what the intelligence showed.

I think it was an imminent threat. I think that Iran, if they -- if we didn't bomb them with the B-2 bombers, now that set them back, but if we didn't hit them with the B-2 bombers, they would have had a nuclear weapon within two weeks to a month. And if they had a nuclear weapon, they would have used it as soon as they got it.

Reporter: If you obliterated their nuclear sites last summer with your strikes, then how can you argue it was an imminent threat now?
Oh, we hit them so hard. We obliterate them, but -- obliterated them. But that doesn't mean with the right equipment, you can't dig down and go get it. We don't want that, and we won't have that, but we obliterated that site. They still haven't been able to get it. That was a complete success. But if it wasn't, they would have had -- If we didn't hit them, if we didn't use the B-2 bombers, which are unbelievable....

...we were talking last night and I'm sure they have a lack of communication, which is appropriate considering we blew up, in addition to their Navy Air Force, every division, their radar.We also blew up all of their anti-aircraft and communications. So they have no telecommunications, so there is a lack of -- I would imagine a lack of coordination Well, we think -- we think -- all we can do is think -- look, we have numerous leader groups. They've all been killed, very dangerous position. Khomeini was killed. Khomeini's son is unavailable. Nobody knows what happened to him. I can say, they haven't seen him there either. Something is going on with him. But regardless, I don't consider him really the leader, but they do have some leaders left. Because we blew up group number one, group number two, a lot of group number three, but we think we have people that are very representative of the country and will do a good job in representing.

Reporter: And just a detail, you said there's many points of agreement with Iran right now.
Many. Many. Like 15 points. 15 points.Well, they're not going to have a nuclear weapon. That's number one. That's number one, two and three. They will never have a nuclear weapon. They've agreed to that.
Reporter:have they agreed to no enrichment whatsoever even for medical purposes, civilian purposes?
They have.

Reporter What about the Strait of Hormuz, who's going to be in control of that?
That'll be opened very soon if this works.
Reporter:How soon?
Immediately. Immediately.
Reporter:And who's in control of it? Will Iran still be able to control the flow of oil?
Be jointly controlled.
Reporter: By whom?
Maybe me. Maybe me. Me and the Ayatollah, whoever the Ayatollah is, whoever the next Ayatollah -- look, and there'll also be a form of a -- a very serious form of a regime change. Now, in all fairness, everybody's been killed from the regime. They're really starting off -- there's automatically a regime change. But we're dealing with some people that I find to be very reasonable, very solid. Uh, the people within know who they are. They're very respected. And maybe one of them will be exactly what we're looking for. Look at Venezuela, how well that's working out. We are doing so well in Venezuela with oil and with the relationship between the president elect and us. And maybe we find somebody like that in Iran.

The price of oil will drop like a rock as soon as a deal is done. I guess it already is today. No, we have a very serious chance of making a deal. That doesn't guarantee anything. I'm not guaranteeing anything. I'm not going to come out here in a week or two weeks and have you all say, oh, you said -- I didn't say anything. All I'm saying is we are in the throes of a real possibility of making a deal. And I think -- if I were a betting man, I'd bet for it. But again, I'm not guaranteeing anything. They want to make a deal very badly. Thank you."
Donald Trump 23 March 2026

First, Iran's conditions were communicated by Iran to Russia on the 23rd of March (1427hrs Moscow time). The talks weren't with USA, and weren't 'initiated' with USA.

"On March 23, a telephone conversation took place between Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi at the initiative of the Iranian side.

The ministers discussed the situation in the Persian Gulf, which has sharply deteriorated as a result of US and Israeli aggression. Sergey Lavrov underscored the categorical unacceptability of strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, including the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, noting that such actions pose serious risks to the safety of Russian personnel and carry the potential for severe environmental consequences across the region. Mutual concern was raised that the conflict provoked by Washington and Tel Aviv would expand to the Caspian Sea.

The Russian side stressed the urgent need to end hostilities immediately and transit toward a political and diplomatic resolution that would take into account the legitimate interests of all parties involved, with particular emphasis on Iran. Russia intends to maintain this position at the United Nations Security Council.

For his part, Abbas Araghchi expressed his gratitude to the Russian leadership for its substantial diplomatic and other forms of support extended to the Islamic Republic of Iran, including humanitarian assistance."
Russian Foreign Ministry Press Release 23 March 2026


"A senior Iranian official confirmed to Drop Site that “no new developments have occurred” between Washington and Tehran. The official was not authorized to make public statements and spoke on condition of anonymity. The U.S. has continued to send messages through third countries, he said, but Iran has only reiterated its position and has not engaged in any back and forth.“There aren’t any negotiations taking place.

The Iranian side has simply communicated its conditions to them and even that has been done indirectly,” the official said. He added that Iranian officials had previously expressed their position on ending the war in general terms to regional countries acting as intermediaries, but that they “firmly deny” claims that any talks had taken place between Iranian and American officials.

While denying any talks with Washington, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said “messages from the US, sent via friendly countries to seek talks and end the war, were received and answered in line with Iran’s principles,” according to Press TV.

The senior official told Drop Site the messages from the U.S. presented to Iran are “difficult to assess, as they have conveyed different points to each of the intermediary countries.” He added that the U.S. has “expressed a willingness to halt operations” in the messages passed onto Iran via third parties, but said they appear “primarily aimed at reassuring those countries and [have] not been taken seriously by the Iranian side.” Regarding reports of a possible meeting to be convened in Islamabad, the senior official told Drop Site that “each of the intermediaries is eager to have the ceasefire talks held in their own capital. Pakistan is no exception.”

According to the official, Iran’s conditions for an end to the war include a simultaneous ceasefire in Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq. Iran has consistently said that it will not accept a ceasefire similar to the one requested by Israel and the U.S. that ended the “12-Day War” in June 2025. Tehran has maintained that agreement was exploited to buy time for another U.S.-Israeli war and that Iran will only consider a comprehensive deal.

The war, the official said, created a new dynamic for Iran’s nuclear enrichment. “In light of the violations of international law by the United States, as well as Israel’s extensive attacks on nuclear facilities, Iran will formulate a new doctrine concerning its nuclear industry,” he said. “Under this doctrine, enrichment activities at levels required for national needs will continue, either independently or in cooperation with China and Russia.” Iran had previously insisted on the right to enrich uranium on its soil for purposes of generating energy and medical research.

Iran also wants U.S. sanctions on the procurement of defensive weapons and equipment lifted. Iranian ballistic missiles, the official asserted, represent a deterrent against future aggression that Iran will not abandon. “Given its defensive nature in countering Israel, this program will continue unchanged and with increased intensity in the event of a ceasefire,” he said. “The missile program shall not be subject to negotiation under any prospective talks.”

Iran would also pursue compensation for damages inflicted by the U.S. and Israel during the war, the official added."
Dropsite News 24 March 2026

Second Russia probably appraised Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner of where the Iranian Parliament 'was at' in terms of passing a 'regime to regulate shipping transiting the Hormuz Straits'. No doubt a comparison of notes was made, with these 2 persons able to give to Russia confirmation of acceptance of terms.

Third, Trump is mistaken when he says there will be no enrichment for medical purposes. That is their right as a NPT signatory. Likely they have agreed to pause it for a defined period (working in China or Russia in the interim) so long as there are no further aggressions.

Fourth, Trump says the Straits will be jointly controlled. This is technically correct, Iran will control the inshore Straits where traffic is currently herded, and the littoral states of the Gulf will control their own ships within the international portion once inside the Persian Gulf. When pressed as to whether the US will control it, he resorts to what appears to be sarcasm saying 'maybe the Ayatollah and me' then quickly segues to the notion of 'regime change'. Here he floats a convenient idea that the Iranian Parliament leadership is somehow a 'new' government which Trump now finds more acceptable - deliberately conflating the word 'regime' with the government, while actually answering the question at hand - the Gulf will be controlled by a document outlining the regime used to control transit of the traits of Hormuz. Political sleight of hand.

"I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. Based on the tenor and tone of these in-depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.Thank you for your attention to this matter!
President Donald J. Trump"
Mar 24, 2026, 12:23 AM

As soon as it the law formalising control of the Straits is passed (and it will be), the Straits, legally, will be 'open'. de facto, they are already open.

Trump will then boast how he opened the Straits, declares he has done a favor to the world, 'goes home' militarily, Iran continues pummeling Israel into submission, and the Security Shift is complete.

One positive result for US taxpayers is that the US will save huge amounts of money by exiting the bases in the Gulf. It also enables Trump to abandon Israel, and stop paying vast amounts of taxpayer money to them. True, Netanyahu's freedom from prison relies on keeping Israelis insecure by fomenting constant aggressions inside and around the country, but it is up to Israelis to 'see the light' and find another leader. If they don't, Iran will keep lazily attacking their military from now to the end of time.

This gives Trump a very good face-saving backdown. Not only that, Trump receives benefits.

Here's Trumps finger in the pie: First, sanctions on Iran will end.
This means US firms can sell goods to Iran. Gulf states are stuck with 'picking up the tab' for reparations. Reparations can include goods in kind (Germany had to hand over a lot of industrial equipment to Russia after world war 2). The US may persuade Gulf States to buy non strategic goods of a humanitarian (non-strategic from Iran's perspective, not America's) to 'donate' to Iran. Consumables of all kinds would fit this description, as well as raw materials and building materials. Cement, wood for framing, rolled steel joists, sheet metal, that sort of thing. If Iran were buying these materials on the international market, they would buy them from China, as that is the cheapest source. But as they are 'free', that is reparations for the Israeli - US crimes, the price doesn't come into it. Trump can. of course, frame it as 'selling' great American goods to the Iranians. This is technically a possibility, but Trump's flawed nature probably won't allow him to do it.

Second Trump sells oil in dollars via Japan. Later he will sell gas to a Japanese co-owned strategic store.

Third, US may be allowed to do joint ventures with Iran in oil and gas. As a non-controlling (maximum 49% control) partner. Russia also does it this way for critical resources (minerals). This possibility was discussed by Iran and the US negotiators prior to US's perfidious war of aggression on Iran. On the 25th of March 2026 Trump said "They did something yesterday that was amazing actually, they gave us a present, and the present arrived today. It was a very big present, worth a tremendous amount of money, and, I'm not gonna tell you what that present is, but it was a very significant, um, prize, and they gave it to us."

"An official from Iran’s foreign ministry said Sunday that the United States and Iran could jointly invest in oil and gas projects as part of an ongoing nuclear agreement under negotiation, signaling Tehran’s willingness to reach a deal and avoid military conflict.

“For the sake of an agreement's durability, it is essential that the U.S. also benefits in areas with high and quick economic returns,” Hamid Ghanbari, deputy director for economic diplomacy at the Iranian foreign ministry, said, The Caspian Post reports, citing foreign media.

“The country must be prepared for all scenarios,” the official said, “while at the same time seriously pursuing the negotiations.” Ghanbari listed among potential areas of cooperation, besides oil and gas, also mining, urban development, and aircraft purchases."
The Caspian Post 16 February 2026

He very carefully used the word 'prize'. In US hegemonic politics, this refers to control of Eurasia. He has not been given that of course. The 'The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) is a US-backed strategic transport and infrastructure corridor that links Tukiye to Azerbaijan on the Caspian Sea. A US-Armenian agreement was signed in 2025 allowing transit through Armenia's Syunik province. The route is owned by a US company, and the US controls the development and operational rights for the corridor for the next 99 years. As operator, they will take a toll on all goods passing through the so-called Zangezur corridor. US companies will be involved in building the rail, road and communications infrastructure.

A joint venture Iranian oil and gas company that has a branch connecting into the pipelines that will run along the American TRIPP concession would have been icing on the cake for Trump. But this is merely a Trump 'wish list' item. The backroom messengers (Turkiye, Egypt, and Pakistan) passed this along, and Iran clearly rejected it. Trump then reframed his 'prize' remark by claiming he was referring to 8 Pakistani oil tankers that have been allowed transit through the Strait.

" they said, we're going to send two more boats, and it ended up being 10 boats, all right. I hope I haven't screwed up your negotiations, but I thought it was appropriate to say, because I did taunt you the other day by saying they're going to give us a present."
Trump 26 March 2026
On the same day he more or less conceded he was pulling US bases out of the Persian Gulf. He said:

"they're probably like us to stay. But if we -- if we don't stay -- look, it's a beautiful thing about airplanes that go 2000 miles an hour, is you can get back there very quickly. Uh, if we don't stay, we're going to be protecting them. You know, they've been very good. Hey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, in particular, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, the three of them Kuwait, Bahrain, they've been 100 percent."
Trump 26 March 2026
The US does not yet have planes that travel that fast. Likely he is referring to a Lockheed Martin program to create a perhaps unmanned version of the discontinued supersonic SR-71 which did travel this fast.  This very fast aircraft travelling very high where there is less drag is used for monitoring and perhaps limited strikes far outside the range of most anti aircraft missiles. No doubt the US will continue to sell Gulf countries arms as well.

Trump is booked to go to China on 14 April. He will want the conflict finished before then.

Iran achieves its security and keeps the US out of the Gulf. And it makes those who committed these crimes pay.

On the 24th of March 2026 Israel's Channel 12 published what is alleged to be the US latest offer to Iran:

1. Removal of all sanctions on Iran.

2. US assistance in advancing and developing a civilian nuclear project (electricity generation).

3. Removal of the threat of sanctions being reimposed.

4. Iran’s nuclear programme is frozen under a defined framework.

5. Enriched uranium to remain, but under supervision and agreed limits.

6. Missile programme to be addressed at a later stage, with limits on quantity and range.

7. Use of nuclear programmes restricted to civilian/defensive purposes only.

8. Development of existing nuclear capabilities halted.

9. No further expansion of enrichment capabilities.

10. No production of weapons-grade nuclear material on Iranian soil.

11. All enriched material to be handed over to the IAEA within an agreed timeline.

12. Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow to be taken out of use (destroyed).

13. International monitoring and verification mechanisms enforced.

14. Gradual implementation tied to compliance.

15.Additional regional and security understandings between the parties.

The proposed mechanism: a one-month ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey, during which negotiations would take place.

Obviously 2 (US, rather than Russian, involvement in building nuclear power plants), 12 (these are a right under the NPT, and are already easily inspectable by the IAEA as they have in the past) , and 14 (a promise to lift sanctions didn't happen last time, so this is a trick to renege on the agreement) are unacceptable, and have been put in the proposal in order to be 'bargained' away.

The Iranians subsequently made it plain that they are not in negotiation with the USA. They will create new 'facts on the ground' that ensures their security. They later said that they will require objective security guarantees such that Israel or the US will not attack them again. Logically, this would mean as military, economic, or terrorist attack.

The obvious objective guarantee would be a nuclear weapon, although this weapon is political in nature, and too big. If Israel carries out yet another murder of an Iranian official, the response must be proportionate. The most plausible guarantee would be a bilateral mutual aid agreement with Russia.

On the first of April 2026 Trump made a statement claiming in effect that the US has defeated Iran.

"We are systematically dismantling the regime’s ability to threaten America or reject power outside of their borders. That means eliminating Iran’s navy, which is now absolutely destroyed, hurting their air force and their missile program at levels never seen before and annihilating their defense industrial base. We’ve done all of it. Their navy is gone. Their air force is gone. Their missiles are just about used up or beaten. Taken together, these actions will cripple Iran’s military, crush their ability to support terrorist proxies and deny them the ability to build a nuclear bomb. Our armed forces have been extraordinary. There’s never been anything like it militarily. Everyone is talking about it. And tonight, I’m pleased to say that these core strategic objectives are nearing completion...I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly. Very shortly...We are in this military operation, so powerful, so brilliant against one of the most powerful countries for 32 days. And the country has been eviscerated and essentially is really no longer a threat... The whole world is watching and they can’t believe the power, strength and brilliance, they just can’t believe what they’re seeing, they, leave it to your imagination, but they can’t believe what they’re seeing, the brilliance of the United States military."
Trump 1 April 2026

He conceded that the US is not concerned with the Hormuz Straits.

 "The United States imports almost no oil through the Hormuz Strait and won’t be taking any in the future. We don’t need it. We haven’t needed it, and we don’t need it. We’ve beaten and completely decimated Iran. They are decimated both militarily and economically and in every other way. And the countries of the world that do receive oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage. They must cherish it. They must grab it and cherish it. They could do it easily.

We will be helpful, but they should take the lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on. So to those countries that can’t get fuel, many of which refuse to get involved in the decapitation of Iran — we had to do it ourselves — I have a suggestion. No. 1, buy oil from the United States of America. We have plenty. We have so much. And No. 2, build up some delayed courage. Should have done it before. Should have done it with us as we asked. Go to the strait and just take it, protect it, use it for yourselves. Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done, so it should be easy.

And in any event, when this conflict is over, the strait will open up naturally. It’ll just open up naturally. They’re going to want to be able to sell oil because that’s all they have to try and rebuild. It will resume the flowing and the gas prices will rapidly come back down."

and that the USA would intensify its aggression on Iran with aerial bombing for '2 or 3 weeks more'.

"We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages, where they belong."

He then claimed that negotiations are going on with a "new group" which is "much more reasonable" (having murdered Iran's previous leaders), but if a "deal" isn't made over the next 2 - 3 weeks, he will commit a series of war crimes.

"If there is no deal, we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously. We have not hit their oil, even though that’s the easiest target of all, because it would not give them even a small chance of survival or rebuilding. But we could hit it and it would be gone. And there’s not a thing they could do about it. They have no anti-aircraft equipment. Their radar is 100% annihilated. We are unstoppable as a military force."
In the meantime he is assembling a relatively small military force, perhaps as coercion, or perhaps as a stunningly foolish adventure to capture an Iranian island near Kuwait.

As it turned out, the incursion on 5 April was relatively near the Natanz nuclear facility, allegedly to search for Iran's remaining highly enriched uranium (a fools errand as it will long since have been removed to a safe place, as US military nuclear expert Professor Postol has publicly repeated on several occasions prior). If it was a mission, it failed badly, with aircraft and helicopters destroyed. The next day Trump posted:

"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah."
President DONALD J. TRUMP Apr 06, 2026, 12:03 AM

He subtly references Mike Tyson's post-fight rant on June 24 2000 when he knocked out his opponent (Lou Savarese) in the first round, in 38 seconds. Tyson boasted "There's no one who can match me, my style is impetuous, my defense is impregnable, and I'm just ferocious, I want your heart, I wanna eat his children. Praise be to Allah". Tyson was actually aiming most of his rant at his next opponent, Lennox.  Ironically Lennox then beat in the 8th round of the 2002 match with Tyson. Tyson is a Muslim, and his final phrase is pausing to reflect on the victory he just had.


Wild card - US mine control of the Straits of Hormuz  Added 4 April 2026

Following the shoot down of a F15-E bomber Trump coercively threatened to "take the oil".

With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE. IT WOULD BE A “GUSHER” FOR THE WORLD???
President DONALD J. TRUMP
Apr 04, 2026, 1:22 AM
On the 23rd of March Trump, when asked about control of the Straits of Hormuz, said:

"Reporter:And who's in control of it? Will Iran still be able to control the flow of oil?
It will be jointly controlled
.
Reporter: By whom?
Maybe me. Maybe me. Me and the Ayatollah, whoever the Ayatollah is, whoever the next Ayatollah...But we're dealing with some people that I find to be very reasonable, very solid. Uh, the people within know who they are. They're very respected. And maybe one of them will be exactly what we're looking for. Look at Venezuela, how well that's working out. We are doing so well in Venezuela with oil and with the relationship between the president elect and us. And maybe we find somebody like that in Iran."
Trump 23 march 2026
Trump has in mind the 'Venezuela model' where he controls the sale of a countries oil, it is paid for using US dollars, sits in a US Treasury bank account (as money from the sale of Iraqi oil does), and the US gives the country an 'allowance', keeping the rest for itself. But first he has to somehow control the oil. With a minimum of US military service personnel killed.

The Iranians don't want anything to do with Trump. The aggressor will not be rewarded for their crime. What can Trump do?

It occurs to me that there is one 'wild card' - although it seems far fetched. The US could probably lay enough mines in the Iranian-Omani Gulf such that it is closed. Until Iran agrees to sell its oil via the USA, with the US taking a 'cut', along the Venezuelan model. The US has little mine removal capability. Once laid, the US can't easily remove conventional mines. But there are now new unconventional mines that are programmable and even autonomous. "Smart" sea mines. Some variants can be switched on or off, or moved to another location by remote control. They can be deployed by aircraft or drones. They can be deployed from submarines. They are more like mini unmanned submersible vehicles than mines.

Insurance companies won't move ships through such a minefield until they have both US and Iranian guarantees of safety (and a written indemnity). I suspect this has always been an option. But it has not been deployed for the obvious reason - you should never do something to someone that you would not want done to yourself.

In any case, the Iranians won't bend. Even if the US claims it has switched the mines off, Iran will allow no traffic through (beyond China and Russia who can strike US ships hard by the same technique if their merchant ships are sunk or damaged anywhere in the world). And if the Gulf is shut, this will destroy the world economy. Except for China and Russia, and maybe Asian countries who can hire China to bring them oil from the Gulf.

Trump always takes things to the most dangerous and foolish extremes. So this 'wild card' can't be discounted.

In essence, he has tossed away the opportunity to withdraw and focus on domestic issues. This is classic Trump behaviour. He always takes it too far in the belief he can get a better outcome. And, as usual, he gets nothing, or a much worse outcome.


Coming to terms - new realities added 8 April 2026 (NZ time) First edited 9 April 2026 NZT  Last edited 13 April 2026 NZT

1. New Reality - Trump cannot defeat Iran Militarily

On 7 April Trump's Truth Social account (unsigned) proposed to commit a crime against humanity of enormous scale - the genocide of an entire civilisational state. He uses the typical bizarre vague third person grammatical form that he apparently believes (wrongly) that relieves him of culpability.

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrum
A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.

I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.

However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!
Apr 07, 2026
A little later, as Iranian civilians streamed in their thousands into the targeted infrastructure, he pulled back.

On April 7 2026, at 1732 (EDT) Trump unilaterally cancelled the aggression planned for 2000 hrs (EDT) that day.

"Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.

This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE!

The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East.

We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.

Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated.

On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
President DONALD J. TRUMP
April 7, 2026, at 5:32 PM EDT

Trump posted a text, allegedly from Iran, which said:

"TEHRAN-7 APRIL 2026
On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region.
In response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif in his tweet, and considering the request by the U.S. for negotiations based on its 15-point proposal as well as announcement by POTUS about acceptance of the general framework of Iran's 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations, I hereby declare on behalf of Iran's Supreme National Security Council:

If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.

For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.
Seyed Abbas Araghchi Minister of Foreign Affairs
Islamic Republic of Iran
It is not a "double sided" ceasefire. Iran has previously explicitly said they will not agree to a ceasefire, because US and Israel simply re-arm in that period. It is a permanent settlement or nothing. The Araghchi simply re-states the existing situation - if no one attacks Iran, there is nothing to respond to. It is up to Trump and Israel. Entirely. But the words used to state this include the word "cease". Good enough to enable Trump to save face. Thereafter, Iran uses the term 'ceasefire' in its public statements. After all, who cares? Trump must stop the aggression on Iran. That's all. (Assuming Trump controls his Israeli proxy.)
Black cat, white cat, as long as it catches mice.

Trump was forced to change his plans because of mounting realisation that he cannot defeat Iran militarily, and that Iran would reply with an attack on Saudi and other oil facilities that would send the western global economy into depression lasting years.Some respected analysts estimated that some oil prices could reach as high as $200 a barrel in the worst case scenario.

He cannot attack bridges and power stations because Iranian civilians have formed human rings to protect them.

New air defense systems have probably not yet been deployed. They are waiting for the US high flying heavy bombers, with many likely to be shot down. Iran has a war fighting plan that has been adjusted and honed over several decades. It is carefully calibrated.

Iran agreed to negotiations in Pakistan (a very risky venue) using Iran's 10 points as a foundation. The US allegedly agreed to 4 conditions to induce Iran to come to talks.

@Khanalizadeh_IR
The 4 preconditions that Trump accepted:
1. The release of Iran’s frozen assets
2. A ceasefire in Lebanon
3. Limitation on passage through the Strait of Hormuz to 15 vessels per day, with transit payment
4. The prohibition of any redeployment of U.S. forces and equipments
April 11, 2026, 00:10 AM Tehran ( US 20:40 April 10, 2026 EDT)

The two week 'ceasefire' period is simply to condition the US public mind to the fact that the US accepts Irans conditions. It will almost certainly be finalised as a UN resolution, but the wording will not be dictated by the west. Or there will be no end.

"...at an appropriate moment, we are fully “LOCKED AND LOADED,” and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran! "
President DONALD J. TRUMP
April 12, 2026,  09:30 AM EDT

Trump promised to make a sneak attack on Iran once again at some point in the future, perhaps years from now (probably using a proxy like India, Pakistan or Turkiye). That would be unwise, to say the least. However, if he doesn't want to end it, Iran, almost certainly in alliance with other regional powers, will strike back at American interest in the region with 5 times the power.

2. New Reality - Iran will govern transit in the Straits of Hormuz and collect fees for services

Technically, the Gulf of Hormuz is open already (originally except to US and Israeli ships, but following the pause in US/Israeli aggression it is open to non military ships of the aggressors as well) subject to digital or physical inspection of cargoes for war materiel to be used against Iran. The Iranian Deputy FM confirmed this, but the number passing per day will be limited.  It is the shipping insurers who refuse or cancel insurance who prevent any given ship from passing. Of course, shippers who do transit the Strait have to pay a fee. The Trump spokeswoman said the next day (8 April) that Trump believes there will be no fee.

"The president was very clear … in his language last night … he said that this ceasefire is subject to the free, safe and immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz - without limitation, including tolls."
Leavitt, Trump spokesperson 8 April 2026


There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait — They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!
President DONALD J. TRUMP
Trump, 9 April 2026 (2108 hrs EDT)

America doesn't get to dictate terms. This imperial diktat will be ignored. Fees will be connected, and Iran will govern ship transit, safety, and exclusion of war materiel entering the Gulf.

Araghchi's choice of words about the Hormuz Strait once again repeats the status quo, but in a way that can be read as opening the Straits for 2 weeks. The technical limitations probably refer to the rate at which ships requesting passage can be processed, and, of course, whether the US will allow the ships owners to pay Iran. No pay, no go. There are claims - probably fanciful - that payment can be made using cryptocurrencies, in particular Tether and the Trump families USD1 stablecoin. Others say payment can be made in yuan bonds, which would require transfer of ownership via a third party, and thus take some time.

The American so-called 'red lines' going into talks in Islamabad were said to be:

1) End all uranium enrichment;
2) Dismantle all major nuclear enrichment facilities;
3) Retrieve highly enriched uranium;
4) Accept a broader peace, security and de-escalation framework that includes regional allies;
 5) End funding for terrorist proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis;
6) Fully open the Strait of Hormuz, charging no tolls for passage

Following reasonably successful talks between Vance, (Kushner and Witkoff) and the high-powered large Iranian delegation, the US remained intransigent on only a desire to be own part of the Hormuz transit fee structure, an impulse that it should be given the Iranian enriched uranium, and a strange impulse that the US should dictate to Iran unusual conditions of administration of its peaceful handling of nuclear research that are not required by the NPT Treaty and the IAEA. Iran is nobodies 'bitch', and will certainly tell the US to go to hell (in such a diplomatic manner that they ask for directions).

As was the case before the American unprovoked war of aggression, the nuclear agenda items are easily managed by allowing the US to accompany IAEA inspections for a period of time, and by having the IAEA watch the down-blending of the enriched uranium to the more normal research level of about 20%. The Americans will simply have to swallow the new Straits regime. They don't rule the world.

Trumps exit from this adventure is hoving into sight. After a short while I am sure a final meeting will convene, and Iran will agree to the handling of the nuclear material as outlined above.

First, Trump has set up a performance of 'blockading Iranian oil'. He probably wants oil payments made via a mechanism that benefits him - perhaps the seemly unlikely Trump family stablecoin method. The US 'sanctioned' purchasers of the Iranian oil then has to pay the crypto firm (the Trump family's USD1 stablecoin) for services. China and Russia will obviously ignore this and pay via CIPS or direct over the counter payments central bank to central bank.

"So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not.

Effective immediately, the United States Navy...will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.

At some  point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,” that nobody knows about but them. THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted.

I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.

We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits.

Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!

Iran knows, better than anyone, how to END this situation which has already devastated their Country. Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft and Radar are useless, Khamenei, and most of their “Leaders,” are dead, all because of their Nuclear ambition.

The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION. They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear.

Additionally and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully “LOCKED AND LOADED,” and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran!
President DONALD J. TRUMP
April 12, 2026,  09:30 AM EDT


"@ir_rezaee
Translated from Persian
"America, just as it suffered a historic defeat against Iran in failing to open the Strait of Hormuz, is also doomed to failure in its maritime blockade.
Iran's armed forces will not grant America such permission and possess major untapped levers for countering it.
Iran is not a place to be blockaded with tweets and fanciful schemes!"
Dr. Mohsen Rezaee Military Adviser to the Supreme Leader 13 April 2026


Aside from the IRGC's ability to strike American forces 'blockading' the Straits, the US threat will of course persuade insurers not to provide cover for any ship entering or exiting the Strait. So, apart from Iranian, Chinese and Russian ships, no uninsured ship will move through the Strait. Iranian ships will likely re-flag to sail under the Russian flag. Later statements claim that the blockade will not be applied to ships coming from 'non Iranian' ports. Iran might still allow those ships through, but only if they have paid the toll.

"The meeting with Iran began early in the morning, and lasted throughout the night — Close to 20 hours. I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!

In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people.

My three Representatives, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!"
President Donald Trump
April 12, 2026, at 11:30 AM EDT



"In intensive talks at highest level in 47 years, Iran engaged with U.S in good faith to end war.

But when just inches away from "Islamabad MoU", we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade.

Zero lessons earned

Good will begets good will.
Enmity begets enmity."
April 12, 2026, 1731 hours US EDT (Tehran time 13 April 2026, 0101hours just after midnight).
Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Foreign Minister of Iran

Iran registered its response with the UN on 13 April 2026.

"In the Name of God, the Most Compassionate, the Most Merciful

No. 2865518  13 April 2026

Excellencies,

Upon instructions from my Government, I am writing to bring to your urgent attention, and to that of the members of the Security Council, the continued internationally wrongful acts of the United States against the Islamic Republic of Iran. On 12 April 2026, the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) publicly declared that U.S. forces would begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports pursuant to a presidential proclamation.

The imposition of a maritime blockade constitutes a grave violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It amounts to a flagrant breach of the prohibition on the threat or use of force enshrined in Article 2(4) of the Charter of the United Nations and constitutes a clear act of aggression under international law. Furthermore, this unlawful measure constitutes a serious violation of the fundamental principles of the international law of the sea.

By seeking to obstruct maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports, the United States unlawfully interferes with the exercise of the sovereign rights of the Islamic Republic of Iran and infringes upon the rights of third States and lawful maritime commerce under international law.

The Islamic Republic of Iran unequivocally rejects and condemns the unlawful act of the United States in the strongest possible terms. It will exercise its inherent right to take all necessary and proportionate measures, in accordance with international law, to safeguard its sovereignty, territorial integrity and national interests.

The United States bears full responsibility for this internationally wrongful act and for any consequences arising therefrom, including its impact on regional and international peace and security
.

Given that this unlawful action poses a grave threat to international peace and security and obviously exacerbates the risk of escalation in an already highly volatile region, the Islamic Republic of Iran calls upon the Secretary-General and the Security Council to discharge their responsibilities under the Charter of the United Nations by unequivocally condemning this unlawful measure, taking urgent and effective steps to prevent further escalation with potentially catastrophic consequences for regional and international peace and security, and urging the United States to put an immediate end to its internationally wrongful acts against the Islamic Republic of Iran.

I should be grateful if you would have the present letter circulated as an official document of the Security Council.

Please accept, Excellencies, the assurances of my highest consideration.

Amir Saeid Itavani
Ambassador
Permanent Representative

H.E. Mr. António Guterres
Secretary-General
United Nations, New York
H.E. Mr. Jamal Fares Alrowaiei
President of the Security Council
United Nations, New York

Incidentally, China responded with a warning. Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun stated that Chinese ships will continue transiting the strait under existing energy and trade agreements with Iran. He warned against any interference with Chinese vessels. This was followed up on the same day (13 April 2026) with the entry into law of a State Council Decree (No. 835), 'Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Anti-Undue Extraterritorial Jurisdiction by Foreign Countries'. Articles 3 and 4 are relevant to transit through the Hormuz Straits and International Waters.

"Article 3 The People's Republic of China adheres to an independent foreign policy of peace, opposes hegemonism and power politics, and opposes any country interfering in China's internal affairs under any pretext or in any way.

If a foreign state violates international law and the basic norms of international relations, implements inappropriate extraterritorial jurisdiction measures that endanger China's national sovereignty, security, and development interests, or harm the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese citizens and organizations, the Chinese government has the right to take corresponding measures.

Article 4 The Chinese government, in accordance with the laws of the People's Republic of China and international treaties concluded or acceded to by the People's Republic of China, or on the principle of reciprocity, has the right to exercise extraterritorial jurisdiction over acts that have appropriate connections with China, in order to safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese citizens and organizations.

The Chinese government has jurisdiction over the relevant acts in accordance with the preceding paragraph. If a foreign state claims jurisdiction over the same act, the two parties may resolve the matter through a treaty or through diplomatic channels or consultation between the competent authorities, on the basis of mutual compliance with international law and the basic norms of international relations.

Article 8 The relevant departments of the State Council, in accordance with their working mechanisms and decision-making procedures, may include foreign organizations or individuals that promote or participate in the implementation of improper extraterritorial jurisdiction measures by foreign entities in the list of malicious entities. In accordance with the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law of the People's Republic of China and the Provisions on the Implementation of the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law of the People's Republic of China, they may decide to take one or more of the following countermeasures and restrictive measures against them and make a public announcement:

<...>
(iii) Seize, detain, or freeze its movable property, immovable property, and other types of property within China;

(iv) Prohibit or restrict organizations or individuals within China from providing them with data or personal information, or from engaging in related transactions or cooperation activities with them;

(v) Prohibit or restrict its import and export activities related to China;

(vi) Prohibit or restrict its investment in China;

(vii) Prohibit or restrict the entry of its products, means of transport, etc.;

(viii) Fines;

(ix) Other necessary measures.

The measures stipulated in the preceding paragraph may also be applied to organizations that are actually controlled or participated in the establishment or operation of organizations listed in the malicious entity list."

In other words, if the USA violates the law of the sea harm the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese shippers, China will also claim jurisdiction over USA actions in International waters. If the USA continues to insist it has jurisdiction over China while far outside sovereign USA territory, the matter can only be solved by recourse to compliance with International Law. Which Trump doesn't respect. However, a blockade is recognised by the UN as an act of aggression (UN resolution 3314, Article 3 C ). That is beyond argument. And an act of aggression is an act of war. Also beyond argument. If USA is making a military action against China, seizing ships and taking them to a 'prize' port, then China is entitled to respond in a reciprocal and proportional manner. (It is notable that the San Remo rules specifically exclude oil tankers from being seized.)

There are an abundance of foreign ships with goods bound for America that can be seized in a Chinese port. The China oil export trade is vital for Iran. Iran consumes domestically roughly 50%of all the oil it produces.What happens to the 50% of the oil Iran exports? Almost ALL of it (~90%) is sold to China under a long term contract.

In contrast, Iranian oil imports still only represent about 11% of China's total imports. But Iran is still very important for China. It is a vital node for trade transport routes. It is also an important market for all other goods. As important, China is drawing a line in the sand. It will not longer tolerate the US attempts to impose their illegal extraterritorial jurisdiction. They will punish those who interfere in normal trade and relations.

Foreign organisations include government organisations. Under Article 8, the Chinese government can fine the American government, or freeze USA government reserves within the Chinese banking system. More importantly, they could freeze or seize US government owned minerals being refined for the US strategic reserves.
In spite of Trumps stupid, duplicitous, bad faith, unreliable and frustrating  (literal) 'last minute' negotiating real-estate tricks, this US misadventure in Iran is drawing to a close. That leaves the Israeli criminal entity to be brought to heel and war crime indictments issued.



Is Israel a party? First edited 10 April 2026

Pakistan, which pulled the framework together, is adamant that Israel is a party.

Shehbaz Sharif
@CMShehbaz
Follow

With the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.
I warmly welcome the sagacious gesture and extend deepest gratitude to the leadership of both the countries and invite their delegations to Islamabad on Friday, 10th April 2026, to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes.
Both parties have displayed remarkable wisdom and understanding and have remained constructively engaged in furthering the cause of peace and stability.
We earnestly hope, that the 'Islamabad Talks' succeed in achieving sustainable peace and wish to share more good news in coming days!

Iran is equally adamant that the pause in firing covers Lebanon.

Israel says Lebanon is not covered. Vance on April 9 2026 said "...Israelis [agreed to] check themselves a little bit [in Lebanon], that's not because that is part of the ceasefire..." In short, the USA agrees that Israel can commit war crimes that almost certainly amount to genocide in Southern Lebanon, just as the US participates in and aids Israeli war crimes that, taken together, are clearly a genocide of the Gazan population.

Israel then launched airstrikes in Southern Lebanon hitting 100 'targets' and murdering over 254 civilians and injuring over 1,000 more.

"Seyed Abbas Araghchi
@araghchi
9 April 2026

The Iran–U.S. Ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the U.S. must choose—ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both.

The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the U.S. court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments."

Iran (and Lebanon's Hezbollah) will have to respond to Israeli or US further aggression against it, and respond harder from now on. It seems to me that Israeli transport lines to the north will be destroyed by Iran because the Israelis, in their arrogance, have killed  Shia Lebanese civilians, medical first responders, hospitals, infrastructure, their homes, ancient sites, businesses.  The Israeli invaders of Southern Lebanon will be pushed out by the local citizen militia (Hezbollah), with the help of Iranian missiles. The Iranians have done a lot of damage to northern parts of Israel, and this will continue without end until all Lebanese land - including Sheba farms. Iran and Lebanon may have to create a residence-free buffer zone a sniper rifleshot distance within Israeli territory in order to ensure South Lebanon's security.

"Trump neither wants nor can sustain a long war, and he won’t find support in Congress for one, either.

This means he must maintain the fragile ceasefire and pretend that everything is fine. Because every step on this board pushes the situation closer to zugzwang.

But this is a game of chess with three players, not two: there’s also Israel, which is not playing on the U.S. side. It has no use for a ceasefire, and it has not achieved its objectives. It could very well make its own move: simply sweep all the pieces off the board. That makes the situation highly uncertain."
Dmitry Medvedev Telegram 8 April 2026



"Netanyahu's criminal trial resumes on Sun. A region-wide ceasefire, incl in Lebanon, would hasten his jailing.

If the U S. wishes to crater its economy by letting Netanyahu kill diplomacy, that would ultimately be its choice. We think that would be dumb but are prepared for it."
Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran Foreign Minister 9 April 2026 (1632 Tehran time = 0802 hrs EDT US)


"Time is running out
1- Lebanon and the entire Resistance Axis, as Iran's allies, form an inseparable part of the ceasefire. (Point 1, 10-point proposal)
2- PM Shehbaz Sharif publicly and clearly stressed the Lebanon issue; there is no room for denial and backtracking.
3- Ceasefire violations carry explicit costs and STRONG responses. Extinguish the fire immediately."
  MB Ghalibaf, Speaker of Islamic Republic of Iran’s Parliament 9 April 2026, 2321 hrs Tehran time (1551 hrs US EDT)


This is a test for Trump. He has left his army close at hand, with a foolish threat to attack Iran if it doesn't agree to what was already in place before Trump even launched his unprovoked war of aggression (there was no nuclear weapons program, and the Straits of Hormuz were open).

|All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel, with additional Ammunition, Weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded Enemy, will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.

If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the “Shootin’ Starts,” bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.

It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary - NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and, the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE. In the meantime our great Military is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest. AMERICA IS BACK!
Apr 08, 2026

If Trump washes his hands of Israel due to Israel's intransigence, Israel will be punished by Iran.

Alternatively, Iran will close the Straits of Hormuz until Israel complies. That will require Trump to strongarm Israel to come into line. Can he do it? If Israel doesn't comply, or sporadically breaks the agreement, Trump is left with the choice of withdrawing all bases from Israel, cancelling all aid, or mounting a military attack on Israel to force compliance. Either that, or attack Iran again, which will mean Iran will destroy all American data centers, attack all Gulf oil and gas facilities, and plunge the world into years of depression. There is no good move, but the least bad move is to suppress Israel.

If it is looked at positively, this is a great opportunity for the US to get rid of the burden of Israel, tainted by genocide and irrational, aggressive behaviour. Trump fails to control Israel, it will show the world that Israel is blackmailing Trump, likely by the as yet unreleased full Epstein files. Curiously, in that regard, Melania Trump made a public statement that she had nothing to do with Epstein. This remark, at this time, might not only distract from the reality of Iran controlling the Straits of Hormuz, but hint at Trump moving to square up and face down any blackmail material Israel may have on him.


How long will the conflict last?  Added 11 March 2026
"Ceasefire is not an option. This war will continue until Iran's demands are met.
Iran will no longer accept a situation in the region where the United States can threaten it again. That's over.
Professor Seyed Marandi 10 March 2026

""There is a consensus that we must act in such a way that the shadow of war is permanently removed from the country,...We must not allow our enemies to simply continue their aggressions, starting them whenever they wish, and then raising their hands to declare a halt only when they come under heavy pressure and incur costs."
Esmaeil Baghaei spokesman Foreign Ministry of Iran 12 March 2026

Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council has already said the conflict will last until two conditions exist:

1. When the Americans, Israelis, and adversarial Gulf and European countries "understand" they have no 'right' to violate Iranian territory in any way, ever.
2. When Iran's "adversaries" agree to pay compensation.

Taking the first condition, how will this 'understanding' of the inviolability of International law be reached? The US and Israel in particular consider themselves to be 'superior', 'special', and that the laws that apply to all the other countries of the world don't apply to them. Because 'they said' they don't.

It seems to me all 'adversarial' countries will have to publicly lodge a letter with the United Nations Security Council stating clearly and unambiguously that they will no longer violate Iranian territory and will also obey laws that relate to respectful relations between states. This, of course, is meaningless in the case of USA, Israel and some European countries, as these nation can not be trusted. But form must be followed.

The real "understanding" is the practical demonstration by Iran that aggression from now on will be met with resolute and powerful defensive measures - both military and economic. Most importantly, severe physical damage will be done to regional adversaries, while severe economic damage will be done to US and European adversaries. (It is reasonable to expect that in the not too distant future both the East coast of USA and all of Europe will be within range of Iranian retaliatory long range missile strikes.)

"In an outright lie, Trump claimed that Iran’s missile launches have severely diminished. But in reality, Iran is more powerful even compared with the early days of the war and is targeting US and Israeli bases with warheads weighing more than a ton

American forces are not the ones who determine the end of the war, we are fully capable of expanding the war. Security will be for all and insecurity will also be for all.

We are the ones who determine the end of the war”
Iranian IRGC Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini

The conflict will not end when the USA says so.

First, Iran must destroy Israels military capacity comprehensively.
Second, the USA and European military must re-deploy out of the region.
Third, all adversaries must sign the required letter of future compliance with International law, and then either commence first payments of reparations compensation or wait until Iran has seized enough assets to cover reparations.

Then there is the issue of revenge.

"The revenge we have in mind is not just because of the martyrdom of the illustrious Leader of the Revolution.

Every member of the nation who is martyred by the enemy constitutes a separate case that demands seeking revenge.

A limited portion of this seeking revenge can already be seen.

But until we completely take revenge, this file will remain on top of all the others. We’re even more sensitive with regard to the blood of our children and infants. The crime deliberately committed by the enemy against the Shajarah-Tayyibah School in Minab and other similar cases will receive particular attention in this process of taking revenge."
Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei 12 March 2026


"The unknown fate of the Zionist criminal prime minister and the possibility of his death or his escape, along with his family, from the occupied territories reveal a crisis and the faltering situation of the Zionists, if the child killer is still alive, we will strongly keep chasing and killing him.”
 Islamic Revolution Guards Corps 15 March 2026

The equation seems to be that until as many Israeli military die as Iranians, including high ranks, nothing will be settled. But because civilians, including children have been murdered, then the price the Israelis pay must be much higher. The Americans are the primary aggressor. Yet there have been almost no deaths. American don't care how many people they kill, brown or white (Yugoslavia), but they are very sensitive about their own soldiers being killed. As Vietnam and Afghanistan proved, the Americans won't leave until a substantial number of American military are dead. But in the process, more Iranians will be killed by USA. These will also have to be avenged. On 15 March 2026 the IRGC said attacks on American bases in the 52nd wave of retaliations was for 'the blood of workers killed in US - Israeli industrial towns. (A list of targets of the various waves and the missiles used is published on PressTV website.)How long will this cycle go on? Until the global economy collapses and the USA stops its aggression.

At that point Iran could agree to end the military phase.

But that is only part one of a two part process.

Iran uses the West's hybrid war technique

The west tried to destroy Russia's economy, make its people suffer and seize control of its mineral assets via sanctions and a proxy war. Details.

The west tried to destroy Iran economy, make its people suffer and seize control of its mineral assets via sanctions and a proxy war.

Now Iran will blockade and sanction the west and make its people suffer. Iran will seize back the opportunities for development the west stole from Iran. It will demand full compensation for everything it has suffered. It will demand punitive damages.

Iran Control of the Straits of Hormuz

Iran militarily controls entry and exit through the Straits of Hormuz. It decides which ships enter and which ships are locked out. This is what the US did to Venezuela. But Iran controls the Straits from land as well as sea. Immediately, from the hills around the coast, but also from its strategic depths far inland. From missile silos hidden deep in the mountains all across the country.

Iran controls, and will control, the chokepoints exiting the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. I previously proposed the obvious - marine goods will be allowed to flow once again, but the US and aggressor countries will have to pay a tariff until reparations are paid in full. (This will take decades.)

It is beyond obvious, even to the most inept and foolish person, that the Straits will remain closed until
(1) all seized money is returned (with interest) and
(2) every sanction is fully and permanently removed from Iran.

No signed agreement is needed. Why? Because countries that refuse to return the money or attempt to re-impose 'sanctions' will have their ships banned from maritime access to the Middle East via the Straits of Hormuz.

The US and Israel knew this would happen. Prior to the February 2026 surprise attack, Iran repeatedly warned the US that if it was attacked again (in spite of the truce that Iran agreed to at the US sides request) then Iran would immediately attack US bases in the region, as well as Israel.

Yet on the 28th of February 2026 the US and its Israel proxy launched another sneak attack under cover of truce and while negotiations were on-going - which is a war crime, the war crime of 'perfidy' (Article 37 of the Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions). Apparently the US and Israel did not think the Iranians were serious when they said they would retaliate if they were attacked again.

Iran attacked the US bases in Gulf States which were used to attack Iran, insurance companies refused or cancelled insurance for ships entering or exiting the Gulf, all trade ground to a halt, shipborne oil and LNG gas income was placed at risk. The Gulf states were, and still are, furious. They paid the US for protection, but the US cannot, and did not, protect them. Ultimately, only a few Gulf states told Iran they would not allow their territories to be used as a base from which Americans could attack Iran (Qatar only banned US attacks only after it was hit with an Iranian reprisal attack). But many states reneged, and became parties to the conflict. As at 3 April, Iran is controlling entry and exit to the gulf in line with existing controls, and with addition of new protocols it is developing.

Iran is already applying rules broadly consonant with the Montreaux Treaty of 1936.

"Iran is not going to accept a ceasefire. That's out of the question. Conditions will have to be met and those conditions will be met.

And these Arab family dictatorships in the Persian Gulf first and foremost are the ones who are going to have to obey and accept Iran's conditions.

Iran is now talking about controlling the Strait of Hormuz from now on, and receiving money for allowing ships to pass through.

This is what these Arab regimes had brought upon themselves. these dictatorships.

They thought that they could have their cake and eat it too. That they could have US bases and threaten Iran and have Iran bombed, and then Qatar and the Emirates and the regime in Bahrain, Kuwait and the Saudis, they could say that we're neutral and get away with it. That's not happening.

Right now they're paying a price, but even when the war ends, they will continue to pay a price. They have to compensate for all the things that they've done against Iran. We're living in a new reality, Glenn.
Professor Seyed Marandi to Professor Glenn Diesen 10 March 2026

The new Supreme leader made it official on 13 March 2026:

"... the leverage of closing the Strait of Hormuz must definitely continue to be employed."
Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei 12 March 2026

Therefore, those Gulf countries that allowed their airbases to be used for re-fuelling will also have to pay.

When the US-Israeli aggression ends, a new form of regulation of the straits is likely to be developed - with the Gulf countries. Oman, under existing conventions, is a co-controller of the Straits of Hormuz, and so will probably be brought into an Irani-Omani control regime.

Once the US-Israeli project to destroy Iran fails - and Russia and China will ultimately make sure it does - Israel, once a US proxy, will slowly lose economic support. Israel, the primary state terrorist in the region, will slowly start to learn civilised behaviour.


Iran's Terms First edited 11 March 2026, last edited 14 April 2026

"Talking to leaders of Russia and Pakistan, I reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region. The only way to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime & US—is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int'l guarantees against future aggression."
Masoud Pezeshkian, Ninth President of the Islamic Republic of Iran 12 March 2026


"Shutting down US bases in the region will enable those governments to strengthen their ties with their own people, who are generally dissatisfied with the humiliating behavior associated with those bases. It will also bring an increase in their wealth and power."
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei 12 March 2026


 "The fifth part of my address is directed to the leaders and influential figures in certain regional countries. We share land or sea borders with 15 countries and have always wanted, and still want, warm, constructive relations with all of them. However, the enemy has been gradually establishing military and financial bases in some of these countries over the years to secure its dominance over the region.

In the recent attacks [against Iran], a number of military bases were used. Naturally, as we had clearly warned in advance, we have only targeted those bases without committing any act of aggression against those [regional] countries.

After this, we will have no choice but to continue this course of action even though we still believe in the necessity of maintaining our friendship with those neighbors.

These [regional] countries must determine their position with regard to the aggressors who have attacked our beloved homeland and murdered our people. I advise them to shut down those [US] bases as soon as possible, for they must surely have realized by now that the US’s claims of ensuring security and peace have been nothing but lies."
Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei 12 March 2026


"Iran has formally called on the United Arab Emirates to provide compensation for damages resulting from recent US strikes, saying Abu Dhabi facilitated attacks on Iranian territory, according to a letter submitted to the United Nations.

In a correspondence addressed to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Iran’s UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani said the UAE had enabled the United States to use its territory to carry out military operations against Iran.

Iravani stated in the letter that the UAE’s actions constituted “an internationally wrongful act that entailed state responsibility,” stressing that allowing foreign forces to launch attacks from its target launch sites in the Gulf Earlier on March 14, the spokesperson for Iran’s central Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters warned that Iranian forces may target US missile launch sites operating from locations inside cities in the UAE. Lieutenant Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaghari said the US military had resorted to operating from ports, docks, and concealed facilities within UAE cities after its military bases in the region were destroyed...US forces launched missiles from these locations targeting the Iranian islands of Abu Musa and Kharg.

...Although several Gulf states have publicly claimed that their territories would not be used for attacks against Iran, open-source information suggests otherwise. Flight-tracking data indicate that Saudi Arabian airspace is being used by aerial refueling tankers supporting fighter aircraft involved in strikes against Iran. The Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia has reportedly hosted multiple Stratotanker refueling aircraft participating in these operations.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates hosts anti-missile radar systems and interceptor batteries, along with logistical infrastructure supporting both US and Israeli personnel, including facilities used for resupply and operational coordination soil violated international law.

The Iranian envoy underscored that such conduct directly contributed to the aggression against Iranian territory, holding the UAE accountable for its alleged role in enabling the strikes. Tehran argued that the UAE bears international responsibility to provide full reparations, including compensation for both material and moral damages caused by the attacks.
Al Mayadeen English March 2026

Gulf countries must not host US bases. Iran will not stop attacking US bases in the Gulf, even after the war ends. In February 2026 Saudi Aramco exported 7.1 million bpd. By late March it was exporting only about 4.36 million barrels per day.

We know Iran will require the US to leave the Gulf militarily. We know Iran will demand full compensation. The new leader also has a goal of regime change in Israel.

"Without a doubt, cooperation between the members of the Resistance Front will shorten the path to eliminating the Zionist sedition."
 Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei 12 March 2026

He says a 'zionist sedition' occurred on January 8-9 2026 with the goal of de-stabilising Iran and turning the Iranian people against the government. He listed the events of those time. The 'rioters', hiding behind peaceful shopkeeper protests, a 'coup-like' targeting of government agencies. An action planned and coordinated by the CIA and Mossad, using smuggled starlink terminals as well as other communication means. Murders of of random citizens, police, and other government officials, the torching of ambulances and police stations. Engineered by trained ringleaders to cause panic in the civilian population, and create a sense that normal law enforcement had broken down and could not protect people. Finally foreign agents and their local proxies were fought off (300 police were killed) and law and order was restored.

Even although Trump and the Israelis murdered many leaders, and a new leader had at that time not been selected, people came out in massive numbers in support of government, whoever it would be.

It seems to me the term 'zionist sedition' should be understood as killing Mossad operatives, causing levels of destruction of military targets such that the zionist political faction falls, settler Israelis return to their own country, and the balance of political power in Israel tips in favor of somewhat more normal Israelis. Of course, it includes expelling CIA bases from Gulf countries. In other words, the CIA will be confined to US embassy staff only. So, although no one has even noticed this remark, let alone understood it, it seems that Iran will not stop its response to the Israeli aggression until there is a somewhat normal, non-Zionist government in Israel.

The current conflict is a golden opportunity for the root cause of many problems to be finally resolved. This seems to be the intention of the Iranians.

"...the United States started this war and must also acknowledge that it made a mistake and put an end to its aggression. We are not seeking a ceasefire because we do not want this scenario to be repeated again after some time.

Rather, we want the war to end completely and permanently...

We desire lasting peace throughout the entire region encompassing all the countries within it.

We do not believe in a ceasefire. We believe in ending the war. ...Ending the war on all fronts. I think this is also in the interest of peace in the region.

That once and for all the issues of war in the region is resolved and that we witness peace throughout the region in Lebanon, in Yemen, in Iraq, in Iran and in other countries of the region.

The region should become a stable region characterized by peace, development and progress. I believe that peace in the region must be comprehensive encompassing all dimensions of peace and including all countries.

Foreign Minister Araghchi 18 March 2026


In late March 2026 I presented my ideas of what other terms and conditions Iran might require. They made perfect sense to me at that time, but were speculative. I wrote:

"The Hormuz Straits will likely be tolled. Houthis will toll the Red Sea. This leverage means Iran can enforce terms that solve its own and many regional problems. While the list below is in what I think is the order of likelihood, and is speculative, the first 3 are certain. But, in principle, the Gulf is already open. Of course it is closed to those 2 countries attacking it, and it will probably remain permanently closed to them until they or their proxies have paid in full for what they have done to Iran.

Iran will open the Gulf to friendly countries taking goods to and from friendly countries in the Gulf. At the moment this is probably only Iraq.
Iran will open the Gulf to friendly countries taking goods to friendly countries outside the Gulf - China, Russia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Indonesia etc.
Iran will allow humanitarian shipments through, no matter who it is for, as long as the cargoes are inspected and verified first. Fees may or may not be applied.
Iran won't re-open the Gulf to western adversarial ships until:

1. Iran has prepared a bill of reparations by country with the current (inflation adjusted) amount from past crimes and coercive practices, plus reparations due for damages done in the on-going effort to defeat the aggressors. Payment mechanisms are flexible, and not yet in place (as far as we know), but include seizing adversaries assets - all cargoes of oil and gas, and the ships transporting them. (By 14 April 2026, Iranian talk had shifted to using tolls on ships passage through Hormuz as the primary means of extracting reparations.)

2. Recognition of Iran's already existing rights (as a signatory of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty) to nuclear enrichment for civil purpose (sterilization, cancer treatment etc)
3. Nuclear weapons states provide written guarantees of Iran's security (probably by bilateral Security Agreements along Russia's 2009 outline, with Article 7 being highly pertinent)
4. All sanctions on Iran are lifted
5. Iranian money stolen by USA is returned in full, all interest paid
6. The US, Israel, and NATO countries withdraw all their military and military facilities from Gulf countries
7. Israel withdraws from Lebanon
8. Israel is forced to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and commence enabling the required international inspections, including by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
9. Israel and US gets out of Gaza and Gulf states pay for full reconstruction
10. Israel borders are legally fixed and there is either one democratic state or 2 viable states on the 1967 borders determined by the relevant UN resolutions
11. The zionist regime in Israel is replaced by a relatively more normal one that observes international law including human rights law and the prohibition on genocide"
On the 7th of April 2026 the US accepted the Iranian terms in their greater substance. The terms were reported in a PressTV article, quoting the Iranian Supreme National Security Council:

"In a statement addressed to the "noble, great, and heroic nation of Iran," the Supreme National Security Council said the enemy had suffered an undeniable defeat and now saw "no way forward but to submit to the will of the great nation of Iran and the honorable Axis of Resistance."

The announcement comes on Day 40 of the US-Israeli war of aggression on Iran, which began with the assassination of Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and top-ranking commanders on February 28.

According to the statement, the United States has agreed to a 10-point proposal that fundamentally commits Washington to:

1. No new aggression against Iran
2. Continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz
3. Acceptance of enrichment
4. Removal of all primary sanctions
5. Removal of all secondary sanctions
6. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions**
7. Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions*
8. Payment of compensation to Iran
9. Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
10 Cessation of war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon

"Iran has achieved a great victory and has forced criminal America to accept its own 10-point proposal," the statement read."
PressTV 7 April 2026
[7] *The Board of Governors refers to the decision-making body of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is dominated by the west, and has passed politicized discriminatory, biased, vexatious, unfair and unreasonable resolutions. It has made crude and imperious discriminatory and unreasonable demands targeting Iran and Iran's's compliance with IAEA requirements (relating to compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty).

[6]** The "Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions" which refers to now-expired United Nations Security Council resolutions and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The west tried to revive provisions JCPOA, using the IAEA, even after the JCPOA had been previously unilaterally junked by Trump. The west was in long-standing breach of its obligations, as it had not complied with its side of the bargain, namely removing the sanctions).

Forever sanctions weaken Iran and allow the US to overthrow the government and seize the oil and the chokepoint. This is an element of a plan aimed at "the prize" - China.

Iran is aware of the long term 'forever sanctions' US plan (the same was done to North Korea). Iran expected the US to attack them sooner or later. The Iranians never had any intention of making a nuclear weapon. Frustrated by western non-compliance with the agreement, even after Iran had 'over-complied' in a show of good-will, Iran progressively increased enrichment as a tool to try to make the Europeans return to their obligation under the terms of the JCPOA to remove sanctions on Iran. The Europeans, in their turn, were determined to keep their jackboot on Iran's throat forever - even after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action reached its legal expiry date. The Europeans tried to use the so-called 'snap-back' mechanism outside the legal framework in order to re-impose 'sanctions' under the now expired JCPOA. The west insolently ignored their own obligations under the JCPOA, abandoned the agreement, then reached back to one sole element in it in a bizarre act of selective time travel.

"The snapback mechanism was incorporated into UN Security Council Resolution 2231 that approved the Iranian nuclear deal in 2015. The incorporation followed direct talks between Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and US Secretary of State John Kerry.

This snapback mechanism is not typical for other sanctions regimes. In fact, it authorised any country to submit a resolution for a vote on extending the sanctions. [usually] A country with veto power [in the Security Council] could block such a resolution single-handedly, resulting in the non-extension of the sanctions.

I have two observations here.

First, the mechanism lacks elegant formulation and was implemented solely for the purpose of maintaining a hold on our Iranian counterparts’ throats, preventing them from any sort of deviation.

Second, Iran agreed to this “exotic” mechanism solely because it was confident it would never violate the deal. The rationale was, essentially, that they let this mechanism remain in place as a contingency measure.

Iran had no intention of violating it then and has no intention of doing so now. Therefore, they agreed to it with a light heart as they saw it at the time.

They could not have imagined that the deal would be torn apart not by them but by the United States in 2018. And yet, it happened.

The United States withdrew from the deal and declared that it no longer recognised the resolution.

Instead of demanding that the United States reassume its obligations, Europe also began to retreat from its commitment to these agreements. This continuous series of violations is well-documented.

So, from the resolution that the United States does not recognise, the Europeans take only what they need. And what they need is this exotic snapback mechanism. What did they do? It is difficult to explain this in a human language. It is a trap. This paradox was created as a trap for Iran. This is yet another indication that Iran never intended and does not intend to violate the requirements of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons or this nuclear deal. However, Iran’s next government has fallen into this trap inherited from 2015.

Russia and the People’s Republic of China have done everything possible to give diplomacy a chance. Even after the resolution to restore the sanctions regime was adopted, there was still a chance to agree on extending the full implementation of the [expired] Iranian nuclear deal for a certain period (we proposed three months) without adding or removing any conditions so that it would remain in effect with all its aspects during a period when, as we hoped, talks would proceed.

Since the West sabotaged this effort and blackmailed the majority of UN Security Council members into supporting its destructive stance, now I don’t know how the Islamic Republic of Iran will respond.

This demonstrates a complete inability to negotiate across the board. They did not even give Iran two or three months to negotiate and secure acceptable terms to continue cooperation with both the IAEA and the United States.

Iran was and remains open to dialogue, even if not direct but mediated.

Iran has also maintained regular contact with the European Three, yet the outcome of these interactions confirms only one thing: from the very beginning, the European Three needed a pretext to reinstate the sanctions. Consequently, all proposals of a compromise made in good faith by our Iranian counterparts were rejected.

Whenever an announcement was made giving hope for an agreement, new demands would emerge by the next morning.

This is a deliberate campaign to initiate another phase of strangling Iran economically, financially and so forth.

You consistently say in your reports, and political analysts mention, that the threats of new strikes against Iran persist and, as some informed sources even indicate, are discussed as options at a practical level, which is also highly indicative.

All these actions are synchronised, both the military threat and the measures of economic suffocation.

This is regrettable and indicates only one thing: western countries hold UN Security Council resolutions very cheap, as we say in Russia. This is true regarding Iran, Kosovo and the Minsk Agreements on Ukraine. I could give you plenty of examples."
Sergey Lavrov 28 September 2025

Iran responded by continuing to enrich uranium, but make no effort to create a nuclear weapon (confirmed by regular IAEA inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities). Iran was trying to coerce the west into lifting the crippling sanctions. It would happily downblend the material to say 20% if the west removed the punitive so-called 'sanctions'. But the west planned to militarily destroy Iran, pull it apart into west controlled statelets, as they always do. This was the west's plan all along.

"...we would like to recall that all provisions of Security Council Resolution 2231 have ceased to be in effect on October 18, 2025, ten years after the date of adoption of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). On that day, the Security Council stopped its consideration of Iran's nuclear program, and agenda item “Non-proliferation” was removed from the list of issues covered by the Security Council. These consensus-based decisions were enshrined in the text of UNSC resolution 2231...neither the UN Secretariat nor the Council has relevant mandates any longer...

In 2025, Western countries finally threw off their masks of alleged champions of a political and diplomatic solution to the issue of Iran's nuclear program. If anyone still had doubts as to their true position, then this position has been revealed now once and for all.

At the beginning of this year, many of us pinned great hopes on resumed mediated contacts between Iran and the US on nuclear issues. There were five rounds of indirect talks, and the parties agreed to meet for the sixth round. However, two days before the meeting was due to take place, Israel opted for military escalation and struck Iranian territory, including civilian nuclear facilities that were under the IAEA safeguards.

A week later, West Jerusalem was joined by Washington in this misadventure.

Not only did these actions jeopardize the security of the entire Middle East region, but also de facto wiped out any chance of reaching any agreement.

Given this, the steps taken by the European trio of the JCPOA – the UK, France, and Germany [E3] – were nothing but the height of hypocrisy.

Despite their previous statements about the inadmissibility of a military solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, these countries just turned on a dime and supported strikes against a sovereign state.

 I would like to quote what my UK colleague said in this chamber at the UNSC emergency meeting on June 22: “Military action alone cannot bring a durable solution to concerns about Iran’s nuclear program.” In other words, London was prepared to view military strikes and threats as a lever to resolve the crisis around Iran's nuclear program; thus, only to please its “big brother,” London fundamentally changed its position in just a few hours.

...this was an attack not only on Iran, but also on the entire NPT architecture and the IAEA safeguards system underpinning it. Moreover, the E3, the US, and other Western countries went so far as to directly distort the content of the IAEA Director General's reports on Iran's nuclear program, which never, and in no context, mentioned converting material for military purposes.

Any attempts to blame Tehran for its defensive steps in the nuclear sphere are doomed to failure and can impress only amateurs;

all these steps were taken purely in response to the unilateral withdrawal of the US from the nuclear “deal” in 2018 and to the obstruction by the “E3” of the deal’s implementation.

Anyone who knows the slightest bit about this matter perfectly understands that neither the NPT nor the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA) impose any restrictions upon the parties to the Treaty on enriching uranium, provided that all material is solely used for peaceful purposes.

Over the past few months, it became absolutely clear that the E3 was also completely non-viable as a participant in the negotiation process on Iran. Initially, these countries sought to play the “snapback” card. But they did not succeed: their plans were thwarted when our country along with a number of other member states presented to the international community their convincing legal analysis, explaining that, due to their numerous violations of the JCPOA and Security Council Resolution 223, the E3 forfeited its right to use the instruments stipulated therein.

Furthermore, the so-called “notification” on the launch of the “snapback” mechanism was sent by our British, French, and German colleagues in circumvention of the procedures provided for in the JCPOA – in particular, without invoking nor exhausting the dispute resolution mechanism. Therefore, as any conscientious lawyer will confirm, no assertions by the former European participants in the JCPOA can replace the reality in which there has been no restoration of the anti-Iranian Security Council resolutions whatsoever.

Then the E3 demonstrated its utter inability to act and make decisions independently. The interim “solution” agreed upon “on the sidelines” of the UN General Assembly High-Level Week between Iran and European countries, which suited both sides, ‘crashed’ against the position of the US, which nullified its initial parameters advanced by the E3. But the E3 pretended, however, that nothing happened.

 And even after this humiliation, the Europeans did not summon the courage to support the depoliticized Russian-Chinese draft resolution on a technical extension of Resolution 2231, which would have given additional time to find a negotiated solution without causing a legal “vacuum” following the expiration of the JCPOA.

Given this powerlessness, we are not surprised by the attempts of the UK, France, and Germany to try with renewed vigor to convince everyone around them that the “snapback” has indeed been triggered. However, for all the attempts of our Western colleagues to create their own “parallel reality,” the actual situation leaves them no chance of doing so. The Security Council resolutions adopted through 2006-2015 have not been reinstated.

Resolution 2231 expired on October 18. The Iranian nuclear program has been removed from the UN Security Council's agenda.

Let us not forget that the objectives of the Council's previous sanctions resolutions concerning Iran have long been achieved, which is documented by the IAEA.

Under the current circumstances, the previous restrictions are not viable and cannot be applied to address the current problems having to do with the Agency's monitoring activities in Iran, especially since those problems arose not because of Tehran, but because of US-Israeli acts of aggression. All these things further emphasize the unviability of any intentions to reestablish the “sanctions regime.”

We would urge our American and European colleagues, as well as the UN Secretariat, to stop living in a world of illusions and to rectify their unlawful and deeply erroneous course. The Russian Federation will consistently quell any attempts to further undermine the normal work of the Security Council or call into question its earlier decisions, and mislead the international community.

If the US, EU countries, and their allies really want to eradicate doubts they themselves have vis-à-vis the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program, they must abandon their biased, politicized attitudes towards Iran and instead of trying to exert “maximum pressure” on this country - they need to engage in real dialogue with it.

Tehran has repeatedly demonstrated its readiness to have fair and equal discussion, and has outlined the parameters for such a conversation that would be agreeable to it.

Russia remains ready to assist any genuine attempts at finding a political and diplomatic solution to this issue. We would urge everyone to focus on these very attempts rather than building castles in the air and indulging in phantom limb pains over Resolution 2231, which has ceased to be in force.
"
Russian Permanent Mission Representative at the United Nations 23 December 2025

The 10 points are very broad, and, as always, the devil is in the detail. The agreements will ultimately come, but it will be a long process. In the meantime, Iran will continue to build and improve it's missiles. It may agree not to including develop a small multistage intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States. More likely they will build it (an easy step for the Iranians), but agree not to deploy it, and probably allow US inspectors competent in inspections and versed in regional sensitivities and culture to do regular verification inspections. There will have to be some form of token reciprocal inspections of Israeli nuclear weapon deployment.

With regard to point 10, within hours of Trump agreeing to Irans terms, Israel said its agreement did not apply to its war of aggression in Lebanon.


Ensuring compliance


The west is notorious for not keeping to its agreements. Barely had the now expired JCPOA agreement been signed and the promised relief of sanctions on Iran disappeared.

The moment Israel does some crime - they act like 2 year olds, with no restraint - the Straits of Hormuz could be closed to the adversarial countries with reparations still outstanding - until such time as the USA (or more likely their financial sugar daddies) has/have paid reparations for Israel's latest crime in full, or Iran seizes sufficient assets to cover the bill. With the addition of punitive damages (Israel is a US proxy). If there are no assets available to seize, Iran would re-start the cycle of defensive retaliatory strikes - with interest added.


Mediation

It is uncertain if mediation is necessary. Iran holds all the cards. If there were to be mediation, China is the obvious choice, because Iran has specifically named them. Russia has offered mediation services, and in early April Arab and other regional countries have worn a track in the path to the Russian Foreign Ministry's door. As is so often the case, Russia is asked to pull someone else's chestnuts out of the fire.

"There are many countries, our friends that have proposed ideas and expressed readiness to play a role in achieving peace. We thank all of our friends who are making efforts in this regard. Our position is the same as what I have stated here and we have also conveyed it to our friends.

We do not accept a ceasefire. However, if there is an idea for ending the war that meets our conditions so that the war ends permanently across the entire region and the damages suffered by Iran are compensated, we will certainly listen to it...in my view, several countries can play this role. China is one of them.

China played a positive and successful role in mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia and I believe that both remain committed to the agreement reached through China's mediation. China certainly has strong capacities and alongside it other countries also have such potential. I repeat, any idea that meets our demands and fulfills our conditions, we will listen to it.

Foreign Minister Araghchi 18 March 2026


US and Israel are guilty of starting an unprovoked war of choice

"...everything about the current situation is the Americans fault. They must answer not only to their own people but also to our people, to the people of the region, and to history in the future. This war is not our war, not the war of the American people, nor the war of the region. It is America's war. A war that the United States itself chose...This war was imposed on us and we had warned about it in advance. We did not turn this into a regional war simply because attacks are coming from countries in the region. Their military bases in the region are being used against us. It is the United States that has turned it into a regional war, not us...I will repeat this war is not our war.
We did not start it.
The United States started it and is responsible for all the consequences of this war, human and financial.
Whether for Iran, for the region, or for the entire world, the United States must be held accountable."

Foreign Minister Araghchi 18 March 2026



Compensation

"A point I must highlight is that in any case, we will obtain compensation from the enemy.

If they refuse, we will take it from their assets to the extent we deem appropriate.

If that wasn’t possible, we will destroy an equivalent amount of their assets."
Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei 12 March 2026


The Iranians may allow the west to join together to compensate in a lump sum. The World Bank may be forced to pay, for example. The US may 'sell' Iran Venezuela's oil at a massive discount for the next 50 years (or however long it takes) so that Iran can on-sell it at a good profit. There are many ways to skin a cat. Without a doubt, a tonnage tax on passage will play a major part.

Early in the conflict, on March 14, ideas had not yet solidified:

"In order for Iran to get paid for all these damages, there are different ideas. One idea is levying tax on ships that are passing through and then yes, you can play with that tax rate, make it lower for friendly countries, make it higher for hostile countries. That's a way of generating revenue for paying all these damages.
The other idea is creating a fund, a regional reconstruction fund, and through that regional reconstruction fund Iran's damages would be paid.
Iran needs to make sure that the cost of attacking Iran is significant enough both financially and in terms of human cost that Iran is not attacked again."
Dr. Foad Izadi Pofessor of Communication, Tehran University 14 March 2026


Insofar as Gulf states are the enemy, Iran can certainly interdict their oil export assets, or seize, for example, North Pars. But there are no US assets in Iran to seize. The US has been preparing for this attack for a long time. Sanctions were an excuse, in part, to make sure Iran couldn't seize any assets once the US - Israeli attack came. Yet the Gulf is full of assets - oil, gas, fertilizer. No unfriendly country will receive anything unless they pay in advance. If they complain, well they can ask the US to re-imburse them. This means that Europe will plunge into ruin. Before it comes to that, they will stop giving money to Ukraine, and start giving money to Iran.

But however the US and Israel offload their financial punishment onto others, the price will flow through into the global price of oil. For decades. Gulf countries will probably finance the US debt. They will retrieve the cost by increasing the price of oil and gas. The US cannot escape the effect.

"There are demands but they are not directed, they're not directed at anyone in particular, at any entity in particular. So the issue of compensation for example is something that has been stated, but who compensates doesn't matter to us if Japan wants to compensate or Kuwait wants to compensate or the United States wants to compensate that's not the issue.

They've murdered many people. They've destroyed the lives of many, and through aggression, through an unprovoked and illegal and immoral war to support ethnosupremacism, to support a genocide in Gaza. I mean, this is evil upon evil upon evil, and so there will have to be compensation.
Professor Seyed Marandi 11 March 2026


That's the mechanism - positive incentives for compliance and fair dealing, collective punishment for debtor states until the non-compliance is fixed. With increasing 'fines' for continued non-compliance in future.

As for Trump - he is a devious and foolish person, and nothing should be concluded with him. He is not capable of keeping agreements, is devious and malign.

"I no longer see any room for diplomacy. Because [US President] Donald Trump deceives others and does not keep his promises, and we experienced this in two rounds of negotiations. While we were negotiating, they attacked us.

The Persian Gulf Arab countries and other countries must put pressure on the United States to end the war. If it continues, this pressure will increase, and thereby others will have no choice but to intervene”
Kamal Kharrazi, Head of Iran's Strategic Council of Foreign Relations 9 March 2026

No agreement is necessary. And when there finally were negations in mid April 2026 (at the US request), the Americans refused to agree to Iran's sovereignty over the Non Proliferation Treat or the Straits of Hormuz. The Americans vowed to blockade Iranian ships that leave through the Straits and to seize ships that pay a toll to Iran. The Straits are probably the mechanism for receiving the compensation they are due.

On the 13th of April 2026 Iran lodged a letter with the UN Security Council notifying them that they insist on compensation from the Gulf countries that allowed their territory to be used by US and Israel for aggression against Iran. Those attacks would have been much more difficult if the Gulf countries had obeyed international law prohibiting countries from allowing an aggressor to use their territory against a third party.

Now the Gulf countries named in the letter must pay for their 'internationally wrongful acts'.


In the Name of God, the Most Compassionate, the Most Merciful

No. 2865512  13 April 2026

Excellencies,

Upon instructions from my Government, and in response to the letters dated 29 and 30 March 2026 and 8 April 2026 from the Permanent Mission of the Kingdom of Bahrain to the United Nations addressed to the President of the Security Council (S/2026/244, S/2026/258 and S/2026/304); the letters dated 2 and 6 April 2026 and 10 April 2026 from the Permanent Mission of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to the United Nations addressed to the President of the Security Council (S/2026/283, S/2026/294 and S/2026/317); the letters dated 30 March 2026 and 6 and 7 April 2026 from the Permanent Mission of the State of Qatar to the United Nations addressed to the President of the Security Council (S/2026/254, S/2026/295, S/2026/296 and S/2026/299); the letter dated 31 March 2026 from the Permanent Mission of the United Arab Emirates to the United Nations addressed to the President of the Security Council (S/2026/271); and the letter dated 1 April 2026 from the Permanent Mission of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan to the United
Nations addressed to the President of the Security Council (S/2026/275), I wish to draw the attention of Your Excellency and the members of the Security Council to the following:

1. Contrary to the claimants' general refutation of the legal arguments and factual evidence, the Islamic Republic of Iran has provided the Security Council with documented and evidentiary information regarding not only the use of the territories of the aforesaid States by the aggressors, but also, in some instances, their direct involvement in the commission of unlawful armed attacks targeting civilian objects in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The said evidence is based on monitoring and assessments conducted by the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

2. The legal position of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding the unjustified Security Council resolution 2817 (2026) has been communicated to the Secretary-General and the President of the Security Council in a letter dated 18 March 2026, which has been issued as a document of the General Assembly and the Security Council (A/80/680-S/2026/20). In that communication, it was expounded that resolution 2817 (2026) was adopted in a manner that is manifestly unjust, legally untenable and fundamentally divorced from the factual and legal realities of the situation.

3. It is recalled that, on 28 February 2026, the Islamic Republic of Iran was subjected to a flagrant act of aggression carried out jointly by the United States and the Israeli regime, in clear
violation of international law and the Charter of the United Nations.

Since then, the aggressors have utilised the territories of the Kingdom of Bahrain, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the State of Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan for the perpetration of acts of aggression against the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The conduct of those States in allowing their territories to be used by the aggressors against the Islamic Republic of Iran qualifies as an act of aggression.

Hence, under the present circumstances, the aforesaid States cannot lawfully invoke Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations vis-a-vis the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is the victim of aggression and is exercising its inherent right of self-defence.

This is further reaffirmed by the fact that, in some instances, unlawful armed attacks targeting civilian objects in the Islamic Republic of Iran have been carried out directly by those States.

In light of the foregoing, the Kingdom of Bahrain, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the State of Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan:

. Should cease their internationally wrongful acts of allowing their territories to be used by the aggressors and, in certain instances, engaging in the commission of unlawful armed attacks against the Islamic Republic of Iran, in violation of General Assembly resolution 3314 (XXIX) of 14 December 1974;

. By their internationally wrongful acts, they have breached their international obligations owed to the Islamic Republic of Iran under international law, thereby engaging their international responsibility; and

. Should make full reparation to the Islamic Republic of Iran, including compensation for all material and moral damage sustained as a result of their internationally wrongful acts.

I should be grateful if you would have the present letter circulated as an official document of the Security Council.

Please accept, Excellencies, the assurances of my highest consideration.

Amir Şaeid Iravani
Ambassador
Permanent Representative

H.E. Mr. Antonio Guterres
Secretary-General
United Nations, New York
H.E. Mr. Jamal Fares Alrowaiei
President of the Security Council
United Nations, New York

In 2023, Iran and Russia signed an Declaration on countering unilateral coercive restrictions. It promoted the concept that states should adopt laws to counter coercion. This is exactly what Iran is doing. Iran will extract compensation from the Gulf States. The sooner they recognise this and get on with life the better.

Assessing damages  Added 15 April 2026

Assessment will take a long time. Past Israeli acts of murder and damage will have to be brought to account. That can wait. For now, preliminary total will be calculated so that payments and disbursement to victims can start.

""Preliminary and very crude figures put the damage at $270 billion so far," Fatemeh Mohajerani told RIA Novosti.
She noted that the Iranian administration’s economic authorities will determine more precise figures through a multi-stage process.
The first will be an assessment of damage to buildings; the second will be an analysis of budget revenue losses and the impact of industrial shutdowns, she explained.
"We will certainly defend the rights of our people through legal means, including compensation for the bloodshed of our loved ones at the Minab school," Mohajerani added"
Tasnim News Agency 14 April 2026


A word about payment currency

Iran has approved its new draft bill to reinforce Iranian sovereign control of the Strait of Hormuz

A Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee member laid out the tenor of bill, which I mentioned previously (security, environmental concerns, Iranian sovereignty, reparations).

Ships will also have to pay a toll or fee, which is already being collected. The surprise is the payment currency. The payment is in rial.

Iran has a huge balance of payment deficit with China. China buys raw materials from Iran, as well as oil. Iran has to buy yuan or dollars to pay for its imports. It is now easier to pay China for some of its imports using rial. Countries transiting the Hormuz straits must now buy rial to pay the toll. But they can't use the western controlled SWIFT payment system because the USA won't allow it.

Now shippers will have to pay via digital transactions outside the SWIFT system, or buy yuan and request China to pay in rial on their behalf (for a fee, of course). Or simply buy some of China's excess rial directly.

Global South banks may ultimately use direct Central Bank digital currencies. The Reserve Bank of India proposed to interlink central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) across all the BRICS nations. A mosaic of payment systems can be used - Central Bank mediated digital settlement in local currencies, 'BRIC Pay' digital cross border payments, or barter. Trade imbalances could even be settled by re-allocating ownership of gold in central bank depositories. These 'non-west' systems free Iran and other Eurasian countries from fear of US manipulation of dollar availability and sinister exchange rate manipulation.

Whatever method countries use to acquire rial to pay the toll, when countries buy the Iranian rial, they strengthen it. This slightly lowers the cost to Iran when Iran import goods from China - up to balanced trade, anyway. Over time, the rial is more likely to be used in regional trade, particularly with India & Russia (Russia's VTB bank recently opened a branch in Tehran, and plans to offer direct payment settlement in national currencies). The yuan, too will become even more regionally important.

This is an Iranian masterstroke. More and more countries will use other payment methods that by-pass SWIFT. While fewer US dollars will be used, the drop in use of the dollar is likely to be insignificant. What is significant for the global south countries is freedom. Freedom from the chokehold that the US has on the international payment system.

The new Iranian legislation allegedly bans vessels linked to the US and Israel from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Merchant ships from US and Israel are likely to be refused entry while these two rogue nations are attacking Iran and Lebanon, but ultimately allowed transit in times of peace.

The legislation is said to restrict passage from countries imposing unilateral sanctions on Iran. When these unilateral sanctions are removed from Iran, I guess ships will be once again allowed transit. I suspect they will have to pay an additional levy over and above the normal levy for transit. The higher fee, if imposed, will, in my opinion, remain until they pay off the decades of damage done to Iranian people by the illegal 'sanctions'. As at 3 April 2026 some western countries are scurrying to try to contact Iranian officials to settle their issues and allow their vessels passageway.

This means Iran has a free hand in designing a new legal order, based on Iran's right to collect transit fees from the Strait of Hormuz.
This means the practical end of 47 years of illegal sanctions against Iran.
Foad Izadi, Associate Professor, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, 21 March 2026

It may not be publicly stated, but these countries will definitely have to remove all trade restrictions (so-called 'sanctions') before they will be granted transit. And they will have to provide rial, whether via buying yuan or not, doesn't matter.

And parties to the aggression on Iran - such as UK, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Australia, and others in the west who provided fueling and other services, should also have to pay at the highest rate until their share of war damages done to Iran is fully paid for (which must include lifelong care for seriously injured Iranians, and full cost of educating a new generation of scientists, professionals, and military murdered by the complicit western countries).

As for Israel and USA, the brutal aggressors, they should, in my opinion, pay a punitive rate, and pay until satisfaction is achieved. Based on the model of German reparations, I estimate this will take at least 80 years. Unless Gulf countries pay it off for the US and Israel much earlier - which is more likely than not. All paid in rial, yuan, or gold.

Of course, the US doesn't really use the Gulf, and Israel can use overland and Mediterranean routes, so payment will have to be extracted via third party 'sanctions', or rather third party tolls. The Americans are very familiar with this technique.

But what the Iranians choose to do is up to them. We will know soon enough.


Consequences of US and Israeli perfidy Added 11 March 2026

“Today, our verdict is the rule of 'an eye for an eye', straightforward, without exception… If they start a war on infrastructure, we will undoubtedly target theirs.

The enemy should know that whatever they do, it will undoubtedly face a proportionate and immediate response; no act of aggression will go unanswered”
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf Speaker of the Parliament of Iran ?10 March 2026


"What more can they do? If they want to destroy Iran's key infrastructure, that's a possibility.

But then Iran will destroy all key infrastructure in this region. Everything. All the oil and gas installations in the Persian Gulf region and in the Caucasus will be gone, finished. They won't be damaged. They'll be destroyed.

And that will mean that the key infrastructure of the United States will collapse.

The world will collapse because we will enter a severe global economic depression.

If that's what the United States wants, that's what it will get.

But the world will know that it's the United States that did this.
It will know that the Zionists did this.
It will know that Netanyahu did this.

Because Iran does not want war. Iran does not want to expand the war.
We want to live in peace.
We want the rights of Palestinians and the Lebanese and the people of Syria to be restored.
That's a very normal expectation.

But if war is imposed upon us, we will respond with counter measures. We will punish the enemy. And now the United States has lost everything in the Persian Gulf region. And and the damage that has been done to the United States is far greater so far than to Iran because the Persian Gulf region is [has] all of these American assets.

...This oil is not being sold. What is it sold in? It's sold in dollars. That is one. Two, a lot of this money goes to the US stock market. And for bonds, there's no money, so it's not going to go there.

And there's huge damage has been done to these regimes. It's not just the drone or the missile that hits. It's the entire confidence that used to exist about these regimes where huge amounts of money from across the world would go, to the Emirates for example. That's disappeared.

So these are all US assets and they're huge consumers. The amount of consumption that these Arab family dictatorships in the Persian Gulf have is is equivalent of maybe the African continent or the Latin American continent. I can't say with specifics, but they are huge consumers. Huge consumers. Well, they're not consuming anymore.

...and of course the the worth of the entire western side or southwestern side of the Persian Gulf has collapsed. It is no longer a place where you can in future invest in, or you can have confidence in.

...So the the damage done to the United States and the West through its own aggression against Iran and of course the Israeli regime which is being hammered day and night.

What fool is going to invest in Israeli regime in future? This is the second time Iran has been pounding it for eight in the last eight nine months. So all of these are huge.

We're the country that's sanctioned. We don't have foreign investors. Any investment is carried out by individuals in Iran and the government. That will continue to be the case. But I think for the United States, this is this is a sea change."
Professor Seyed Marandi 10 March 2026

The immediate and medium term consequences are becoming obvious, but long term consequences will only become obvious in time.

I will briefly mention the more important negative consequences over the ensuing months.

Oil
20 million barrels a day are now offline. In 10 days that is 200 million barrels. Every countries situation is different, but the G7 has about 1,200 million barrels of reserves. So in several months time the reserves will be gone.The price of oil will skyrocket. Until recession, economic stasis, destroys demand for oil.

As of 11 March 2026 about 6% of global production has disappeared. Iran has been sanctioned for decades. It is one of the countries best able to weather the economic downturn this oil shortage will incur.

As at mid April, disruption linked to the US-Israel war on Iran has removed about 16% of global oil supply. This is more than in  surpassing previous crises such as:
The 1990 Iraq invasion of Kuwait (8%)
The 1973 Arab oil embargo (8%)
The 2011 US war on Libya (2%)
The 2022 NATO-Ukraine war on Russia (2%)


Oil products
Jet fuel
As at 25 March 2026 Jet fuel is in short supply. Flights have been cancelled.

Petroleum (Gasoline)
As at 25 March 2026 petroleum is in short supply in some countries. Slovenia is the first EU country to introduce rationing.

Bitumen
As at 25 March 2026 bitumen is not yet in short supply, as, for a variety of reasons, demand is low at the moment. Locally sourced (not made from imported feedstock) bitumen exporters:
Iran 15–25%+ of the global export market in volume the largest global exporter
UAE 8–15% number 2
Saudi Arabia, Iraq are also important exporters. Bahrein, Kuwait and Qatar have only modest export production.
Optimistically, about a quarter of global bitumen exports are no longer available. Some countries (US for example) are self sufficient in bitumen supply. Most countries are reliant on imports. The UK, for example, fills in well in excess of 2 million potholes a year. That's a lot of asphalt. This does not include major road re-surfacing and roading network extension.



Fertiliser

The Gulf produces about 15 million metric tons of nitrogen fertiliser annually. Qatar, Iran, and Saudi Arabia are the major producers. Some can be shipped overland in Iran and Saudi Arabia's case, but a significant proportion will be shut in. There is little extra capacity in the global nitrogen fertiliser manufacturing facilities. The northern hemisphere planting season is under way, and competition for nitrogen supply will drive up prices, eventually driving up food prices.

Infrastructure - water

"And if Iran wants everyone, all the Americans, to leave, all they have to do is destroy the desalination plants and it'll be over.
Iranian Brigadier General Masoud Akhtari. March 2026

If Trump and Netanyahu escalate and attack Iranian desalination plants, Iran will destroy Gulf desalination plants. Iranian has a low dependency on desalination plants, Gulf countries have an extremely high dependency. If Gulf plants are destroyed, almost the entire population of the affected country will have leave overland to Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, Turkey, then to Europe.

Infrastructure - oil

"If Iran want they can destroy all these oil and gas facilities and it will take years to rebuild them."
Iranian Brigadier General Masoud Akhtari. March 2026
 
Israel struck an oil refinery in Tehran. Iran struck an Israeli oil refinery. An eye for an eye. This is the equation.


Infrastructure - natural gas

"Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar's LNG Gas facility.

NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar - In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before. I do not want to authorize this level of violence and destruction because of the long term implications that it will have on the future of Iran, but if Qatar's LNG is again attacked, I will not hesitate to do so.:
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
President DONALD J. TRUMP

Trump won't attack Iran's turbine pumping stations for its natural gas because Iran will attack Gulf country gas turbines, ending the pumping of natural gas for many years to come. Instead, he directed his Israeli proxies to attack Iran's South Pars gas field (a field Iran shares with Qatar). Most (70%) of the gas produced here is used solely for Iran's domestic use. USrael struck 4 of the 24 production phases. Resulting fires and damage stopped production in those areas (100 million cubic meters/day, about 14% of Iran's total natural gas production), but the bulk of production remains on line. Gas is used to drive the turbines that generate electricity. The interruption to gas supply is causing rationing of both electricity and gas. Natural gas is also used in petrochemical production. Restricted gas supply has removed 40% of normal production levels. Iraq relies on Iranian natural gas to generate around 30% of its electricity. Gas shipments have been suspended.

"Trump has said, 'we can take apart Iran's electric capacity within one hour, but we have not done it.' Well, if they do that, the whole region will go dark in less than half an hour, and darkness provides ample opportunity to hunt down US servicemen running for safety,"
Ali Larijani Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council 12 March 2026

The strike was limited because Trump knew the Iranians would retaliate in kind. The threat to "blow up the entirety of South Pars (he means the infrastructure) is meaningless bluster, as Qatar's terminal would be destroyed in retaliation. What's more, If all Iran's domestic natural gas was destroyed by the US, Iran would force Qatar to fully supply Iran with natural gas from North Pars. In addition, Iran would undoubtedly destroy all Israeli natural gas platforms and terminals, as well as those belonging to US companies wherever they are found - within the limit of the range of Iranian missiles.

On March 19 2026 Iran retaliated to the strike on South Pars with an attack on Qatars Ras Laffan LNG infrastructure, mainly processing plants and storage units. QatarEnergy says ~17% of Qatar's LNG production capacity is damaged. Ras Laffan is responsible for about 20% of global LNG exports Repairs are estimated to take 3 years or more for full restoration. A retaliatory strike on Israel's Haifa Bay oil refinery and petrochemical complex allegedly caused minor damage. The Americans refueled their strike planes in Saudi Arabia, and as a result, Saudi Arabia's Yanbu SAMREF refinery was attacked, but allegedly 'defeated' except for minor damage from a drone. The ARAMCO-ExxonMobil joint venture is the primary export facility for Arabian light crude. The Houthi closed the southern (Indian Ocean) end of the Red Sea to countries attacking Iran on 23rd of March 2026, so exports from that coast are now locked in anyway, except for those exiting via the Suez canal. The Suez canal can't take the largest oil tankers (VLCC class) if they are fully laden, only fully laden Suezmax or smaller can go through without delay. For practical purpose, exports from Yanbu are probably around 2.5 million barrels a day, at best.


Metal Products
29 March 2026 - Iran struck the EMAL aluminium plant in the UAE and the ALBA aluminium plant in Bahrain in response for an Israeli attack on 2 of Iran's largest steel factories, a power plant and civilian nuclear sites (among other infrastructure). The EMAL plant has the longest aluminium production line in the world with a 1.3 million ton capacity. The ALBA aluminum plant produces aluminium products for the US military industry, and is partly US owned.


Markets
The American weapons sales to Gulf countries will simply end.


Positive consequences
There are also positive consequences:

1. A surge of interest in electric vehicles. This incentivises governments to subsidise the import of electric vehicles, and to supply charging stations. A natural knock-on effect will be a surge of interest in wind and solar powers, as well as batteries for baseload capacity.

2. A realisation that oil does not last forever. All three majors - USA, Saudi Arabia and Russia will run out of surplus oil (exports) before 2060. (Unless decadal scale economic stagnation drops oil demand dramatically.)

3. Eurasian trade routes will strengthen. There are 15 countries bordering Iran. Trade goes in all directs, with Iran as an important hub. The projects connecting China to Iran and beyond will expand. The Same for Russia. India may finally realise what side its bread is buttered on and start connecting to and through Iran. Iran's strategic depth will become even stronger.


War Crimes


 "The United States is openly supporting a a holocaust in Gaza.
It's helping the Israeli regime carry out massacres in Lebanon.
It's engaging in war after war against Iran. Unprovoked!
And it's slaughtering women and children.
It targets schools, murders hundreds of little kids at an elementary school - which was not a mistake. That was the first wave of attacks. Those first targets are always well planned. Maybe, you know, after two, three weeks, an officer would be under pressure to find new targets and he'd make a mistake. But this was no mistake. This was to hit where it hurts. And why should it be a mistake?
They've been bombing hospitals.
They've been bombing other schools.
They've been bombing ambulances on highways.
They've been bombing gymnasiums where young women play volleyball and they massacred them, too.
They bombed stadiums.
They've bombed squares in Tehran.
Today, it was the new year in Iran, and as people were on the streets celebrating, they bombed them.
They bombed demonstrations against the war and in support of the armed forces and the leader on Friday, where I was present, and they murdered a woman.
They bomb protesters.
They bomb demonstrations and the western media looks away.
Never in human history... I don't think such a thing has happened.
They bombed a funeral in Ramadan a few days ago.
Last night they bombed a gathering of people at night, a very large gathering in Anzari city.
This is the dystopia that the western regimes have imposed on the world.
When they strike Iran, they don't tell anyone beforehand what they're going to do. When the carpet bombing starts, we sit at home, we sit at our place of work, we sit wherever we are, waiting to see if we're going to be killed or not.
But when the Iranians retaliated, they told everyone - and the Emirates - they told everyone to leave these areas.
Professor Mohammad Marandi 22 March 2026

Evidence is being collected to charge the US and Israeli military and civilian officials in any level responsible for these war crimes. The US doesn't recognise international law of any kind, so it won't make any difference to the officials. But in the future, the individuals convicted in Iranian courts will be put on international lists, and (even at great old age), if a perpetrator passes through a country with a reciprocal agreement to arrest war criminals and other terrorists, they will find themselves behind bars. In Iran.




Will the US, Israel and West capitulate before the global economy collapses? Added 11 March 2026

"...They didn't think the war would become long-term. They didn't think, for example, the price of oil would go up from $80. It has already gone up to $110, you should expect $120 and $150 in the coming days.

Well, what does this mean? It means the entire global economy will collapse. If the global economy collapses, will the world allow Trump to continue his warmongering?

Or will the countries of the region allow him to continue his warmongering?"
Iranian Brigadier General Masoud Akhtari 9 March 2026

I don't think anyone knows. After all, it is up to the US (mainly) to agree to terms, return to its own country - and busy itself with its domestic problems. But it is up to the will of one man. Donald Trump.

The longer he delays, the higher the cost across all aspects of the global economy - including his own.

Even once he signs, a certain amount of inflation will wash through. If he delays too long - and he is the sort of person who has a habit of always gambling with very high stakes and bad odds - the world will plunge into a severe recession. This self inflicted calamity will inevitably be made worse by domestic unrest due to high prices, unemployment, and insecurity. Perhaps this is his plan to cancel elections. After all, he is a cunning and devious person.



What's Next for the Gulf?  First edited 17 March 2026

"Those who count on such assistance should recall the sad experience of all leaders of countries that had relied on the United States.

As soon as the situation changed, Washington remorselessly left those leaders to their own devices and launched a new stage of its selfish policy."
Sergey Lavrov 5 November 2023

The Americans forced the Gulf States to sell oil using the dollar; in return, the US would protect them. The US cannot protect them; in contrast, its efforts are concentrated on protecting Israel. The 'petrodollar' bargain is broken. The Gulf states were already accepting yuan in payment for oil shipped to China. The 'petrodollar' bargain broke down in relation to China, at least, because the Chinese CIPS payments facility allows states to by-pass the US controlled SWIFT system of international payments.

But if the US can't protect the Gulf states, who can? Before this question can be answered, the Gulf states will have to decide whether or not they will continue to host US bases. If they do, Iran will continue to destroy those bases. So far, Iran has deliberately avoided hitting US troop concentrations (except for senior officers, in reprisal for US murder of their senior military). They don't need to hit troops. They have their hands around the throat of Gulf oil flows, and nothing the US does will change that.

Seyed Abbas Araghchi
@araghchi
Hundreds of Iranian civilians have been killed in Israel-U.S. bombings, including over 200 children.

Reports claim that some neighboring states which host U.S. forces and permit attacks on Iran are also actively encouraging this slaughter. Stances should be promptly clarified
3:27 AM · Mar 17, 2026

No defense or security pacts can be developed with a state that permits the acts of state terrorism Mr.Araghchi describes. On the other hand, Gulf States are duplicitous and often dishonorable, and Iran knows this, and should expect it. Gulf states are probably waiting to see if the US really does leave before they think about what to do to guarantee their own security from USA, Israel, and a future Iranian government.

Therefore, at the moment, the Iranians will have to sort the sheep from the goat - those states where a degree of trust can be developed, and those states where it can't. Unlike the Ukraine - Russia conflict, Iran can has no long term strategic desire to trade or diplomatically align with other Gulf states. It can retaliate and exact compensation in the blink of an eye. Iran can easily use access to the Straits of Hormuz to punish any Gulf country that allows its territory to be used for an attack - of any kind.

Russia has long promoted the idea of a Gulf Security Council (made up of Gulf States and Gulf States only) joining together to provide mutual security. A united Gulf will protect its own trade and civilisational peace.

"As you may be aware, Russia is advocating an immediate cessation of aggression by the United States and Israel against Iran. ...We stand ready to provide mediation or other assistance to the parties to the conflict in order to return the situation to a political and diplomatic track.

"Yesterday, I held a meeting with foreign ministers of the GCC member states. ...The meeting lasted more than two hours. We noted the ongoing relevance of the Concept of Collective Security in the Gulf Region advanced by Russia in the 2010s, which provides for fully normalised relations between Iran and its Arab neighbours.

We can infer from the developments in the region that the United States and Israel are the ones that are attempting to prevent normalised relations between Iran and its neighbours, and even to sic GCC members on the Islamic Republic.

We maintain a constructive approach to resolving other conflicts around the world. However, it is troubling to see some of our partners misunderstand the point of diplomacy and the role of talks in international relations. Whenever diplomatic or negotiating contacts are used to cover up preparations for a military invasion - or even to create a pretext for one - this is wrong, unacceptable, and unfair...Of course, we cannot put up with this.

President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly spoken about the lessons we have learned from engagement with the West over the past more than two decades. Undoubtedly, having learned from bitter experience, we will from now on insist more firmly on compliance by all participants in international relations with generally accepted standards of conduct.

Some of our friends from the Muslim and Arab world were asked whether they truly believed that Iran would have attacked facilities located within the borders of the GCC countries had it not been for the aggression perpetrated by the United States and Israel, given that Iran has not historically initiated such wars, whereas wars have been launched against it, including at the beginning of this century and in the previous one...

The response was that Iran was allegedly plotting an attack on them regardless and was merely waiting for the right pretext to go ahead with it. What kind of pretext? The aggression of the United States and Israel - that is the pretext. In other words, Iran was supposedly waiting for this aggression to take place in order to grab the opportunity and to take pleasure in attacking its neighbours.

This is, of course, an extremely simplistic explanation. Iran never planned an attack; on the contrary, it was an energetic participant of discussions on establishing an Arab-Iranian security system. In addition to Russia, China also supported this approach, and Iran itself put forward initiatives to this end.

There was every opportunity to go down this road.

A couple of years ago, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia normalised relations with Iran, and they exchanged diplomatic missions. In the autumn of 2004, in Doha, the capital of Qatar, the first in-person conference of the foreign ministers of the Arab monarchies and the Islamic Republic of Iran took place. Clearly, that did not sit well with those who seek to assume control over the vast resources possessed by the countries of the region.

...Most importantly, we must firmly defend our national interests while keeping the door open to dialogue and potential agreements. However, first, this must be done on a strictly equitable and mutually advantageous basis. Second, the door is open to those willing to leave their whims at the door and present their proposals in specific terms. We will then decide how to respond to ideas that may still come from Western elites. However, we will not be chasing after anyone. That much is certain.

The initiatives put forward by the Russian leadership on the international stage, be it the earlier mentioned Concept of Collective Security in the Persian Gulf, the Greater Eurasian Partnership, or the creation of a collective security architecture in Eurasia, are constructive in nature. They impose nothing on anyone and, in all cases, encourage equal dialogue aimed at finding a balance of interests among those willing to participate in this work."
Sergey Lavrov 31 March 2026"

A Gulf Security Council, a BRICS version of this, a "greater Eurasia" partnership (ncluding the Gulf and North Africa), or a multilateral Gulf Security Treaty, is now all but a certainty. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, etc, all jointly patrolling and protecting the Gulf under Gulf developed regulations and conditions. The conditions will probably be similar to 'The (Montreux) Convention regarding the Regime of the Straits' that governs free peacetime access to the Black Sea, with Turkiye being the controller. (The Iranian Parliament approved the new legal regime as is simply awaiting the final legislative move to bring it into effect.)

"From our perspective, this is a waterway [Straits of Hormuz] located next to Iran.

Naturally, we will not allow our enemies to use this waterway.

At the same time, a war is taking place around it. And naturally many ships and countries may not want to use this route due to insecurity. Some countries contact us to discuss safe passage through the strait of Hormuz and we try to provide them with the conditions for such passage.

In my view, we need to design new arrangements for the strait of Hormuz and the way ships pass through it in the future after the war so that peaceful navigation through this waterway can be permanently maintained under clear regulations with consideration for Iran's interests and the interests of the region.

I believe that after the war, the first step should be drafting a new protocol for the Strait of Hormuz. Naturally, this should be done between the countries that lie on both sides of the strait as they are the principal parties in this matter and it should guarantee that safe passage through the strait takes place under specific conditions. Conditions that ensure peacefulness. We do not want to witness another war in the region and we do not want to see the strait closed again.

There must be regulations and conditions established that guarantee lasting peace in this region."

Foreign Minister Araghchi 18 March 2026

A Gulf defense force is a further step, albeit it would not be essential. Foreign military vessels berthing and refuelling only, no base, and restricted to humanitarian tasks. Gulf owned and operated radars, satellites, AWAC, and comms,  missile and drone technology. Sourced from multiple countries. None of it American. A Gulf Security Treaty with dispute settlement mechanisms. And Gulf reciprocal defense mechanisms in the case of attack from outside.

Perhaps the cost of such standing cooperative military forces could be paid for from revenue collected from ships traffic. Naturally, aggressor states will still have the reparations tax on top.

"The Islamic Republic, without being in pursuit of domination or colonization in the region, is fully prepared for unity, and fostering warm, sincere, reciprocal relations with all its neighbors."
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei 13 March 2026

"We are ready to resolve all problems with you. In order to ensure peace in the region, we propose to create a security structure in the Middle East, which will include Islamic countries, in order to ensure peace, stability and security,"
Middle Eastern countries do not need the presence of "outsiders," the president said.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, 20 March 2026

"The messages of the President and the people of Russia are a source of encouragement for us in these historic days. Today, thanks to the resistance of the Iranian people, past relations in the region have been transformed, and new bonds are being formed.
The security of East Asia will henceforth be ensured by the countries of the region."
Masoud Pezeshkian Mar 27, 2026

But the Gulf countries will be made to understand - if you ever allow foreign bases in your countries again to use those bases to attack Iran - you will be utterly destroyed. There are new rules. The cup of tolerance has now overflowed.

"Those drones that murdered General Soleimani, they came from Doha, from Qatar, from the US base there. They flew from there to Iraq and murdered him.
So what they've been doing to Iran is nothing new.
The Iranians have tolerated this.

During the 1980s when the West encouraged Saddam Hussein to invade Iran and they gave him chemical weapons - especially the Germans - but the collective West was behind it. These Arab family dictatorships gave him $200 to $250 billion dollars back then [to attack Iran - Ed]. And dollars back then were worth a lot more than today.
But after the war ended, Iran forgave them.

When Saddam went into Kuwait, they changed their policy. Iran forgave them.

Or when Qatar, which supported ISIS and al-Qaeda in Syria, and supported the Saudi genocide in Yemen alongside Erdogan.
Erdogan supported the genocide in Yemen. And he supported ISIS and al-Qaeda in Syria. And of course now we see from Joe Kent, he too is saying this was all done by the Americans. ISIS, al-Qaeda, this was all our thing, and General Soleimani was fighting against them [ISIS and Al Qaeda]. No moral compass there.
But the point is, Qatar supported the genocide in Yemen.

They supported these genocidal monsters in Syria, which you know brought great benefit to Qatar. And [to] Erdogan too. [And to] the Israeli regime.

I mean, the treachery is just unbelievable.

But when the Saudis and the Emiratis turned against Qatar, Iran saved it. Without getting any concessions, without saying, "Okay, you have to do this for us. You have to give this, you know... nothing."

And then again after the 12-day war, Iran didn't go after them. After the murder of General Soleimani, Iran didn't do anything.

But now it's not going to be the same anymore. Iran will not accept in future these regimes - if they survive - to behave the way they did over the past 47 years.

So if the Americans expand the war, if they try to take Iranian territory, Iran can wipe out everything. And that is finish. Then they no longer need the Strait of Hormuz. And the US economy will collapse, and the US armed forces will collapse.
Mohammad Marandi 22 March 2026

There is a limited window of time to convert to solar, nuclear, clean gas, wind and geothermal economies in the Gulf. Oil and gas are a diminishing and terminal resource.

The Gulf must protect its own future. No one can afford to have solar projects, wind, projects, cables and sophisticated battery storage infrastructure damaged or destroyed.

The security shift is a renewable energy shift which in the Gulf region is steadily embedding into daily life. Oil reservoirs are protected from war by geological depth under the ground. Renewable energy is vulnerable. This reality insures compliance with International law and peaceful relations between states. The greatest danger to peace and security in the Gulf is Israel and the United States.

A big power - Russia and China - Eurasian security umbrella will be needed.


The Convention regarding the regime of the Hormuz Straits Added 19 March 2026 First edited 3 April 2026 Last edited 12 April 2026

"Did you know that Denmark earns significant revenue from the Kattegat Strait?
Of course, unlike Turkey, which officially receives tolls from the Bosphorus Strait, Denmark forces most passing ships to purchase pilotage services.
In other words, ships in international waters are compelled to comply with the laws of Denmark and Turkey"
Foad Izadi, Associate Professor, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, 21 March 2026


"Did you know that Turkey receives $5.83 in transit_fees for every ton of goods passing through the Bosphorus Strait?
This means there is legal precedent for collecting tolls from the #Strait_of_Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz should remain closed until the issue of transit tolls through the strait and war compensation is settled."
Foad Izadi, Associate Professor, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, 19 March 2026


The Iranians have decided the rules (regime) that will regulate shipping movements through the Gulf. Iran's territorial sea extends for 12 nautical miles (~ 22.2 kilometers). These 12 nautical miles are Iranian sovereign territory.

The Strait of Hormuz is about 21 nautical miles (~39 kilometers) wide at its narrowest point between the Iranian coast (or nearby islands) and Oman's Musandam Peninsula. The entire width of the Straits at their narrowest point overlaps the sovereign territorial seas of both Iran and Oman. That's the first point.

Iran's functional control is rooted in long application of its historic laws. Later, Iran voted against the 1958 'Geneva Convention on the Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone' that allowed the right of 'innocent passage'. Iran signed the 1958 Geneva Convention, but they did not ratify it, meaning it is not part of Iranian law. Nevertheless, in practice, Iran has acted in general conformity with the 1958 Geneva Convention. That's the second point.

Under the 1958 Convention, there is the concept of a 'Contiguous Zone' abutting territorial seas. This zone is also 12 nautical miles wide. This zone is in international waters, but, under the 1958 Geneva Convention, the coastal state has limited jurisdiction in the contiguous zone in spite of that. The coastal state (Iran in this case) has the right to exercise functions in this zone - such as Customs control, immigration measures, quarantine directions such as halting potential pandemic flu carriers, biosecurity measures (for example shipping containers externally infested with insect egg masses), environmental security (restrictions in times of war when oil may be spilled) and so forth. That's the third point.

Under the 1958 Convention there is no right of 'transit passage' or unimpeded navigation for international shipping. There is a right of 'innocent passage' under the 1958 convention and Iranian law - but only in times of peace. That's the fourth point.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which gives the right of transit passage, does not apply to Iran because while they are a signatory (1982), they have never ratified it in Parliament. Both Iran and Oman opposed the convention at the time it was being discussed. So did Turkey and Venezuela, coastal countries with important straits (in Venezuela's case, the Bocas del Dragón and Bocas del Serpiente Straits, and the Gulf of Venezuela bordering Colombia's Guajira Peninsula). So the laws and customs applying to the Straits are those of Iran, and it can modify them any time they want.That's the fifth point.

At the time the UNCLOS was put in place Iran filed an interpretative declaration on how it sees UNCLOS in relation to itself as a non-UNCLOS country. In their declaration Iran said the UNCLOS rules on transit and on Exclusive Economic Zones did not correspond to customary law and thus were not applicable to States that did not contract with UNCLOS. They also declared, that in the light of customary international law, Iran considered it legal to require warships intending to pass through its territorial sea to receive its authorisation beforehand. That's the sixth point.

" ‘In accordance with article 310 of the Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran seizes the opportunity at this solemn moment of signing the Convention, to place on the records its “understanding” in relation to certain provisions of the Convention. The main objective for submitting these declarations is the avoidance of eventual future interpretation of the following articles in a manner incompatible with the original intention and previous positions or in disharmony with national laws and regulations of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It is the understanding of the Islamic Republic of Iran that:
1) Notwithstanding the intended character of the Convention being one of general application and of law making nature, certain of its provisions are merely product of quid pro quo which do not necessarily purport to codify the existing customs or established usage (practice) regarded as having an obligatory character. Therefore, it seems natural and in harmony with article 34 of the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, that only states parties to the Law of the Sea Convention shall be entitled to benefit from the contractual rights created therein.
The above considerations pertain specifically (but not exclusively) to the following:
- The right of Transit passage through straits used for international navigation (Part III, Section 2, Article 38).
- The notion of “Exclusive Economic Zone” (Part V).
 - All matters regarding the International Seabed Area and the Concept of ‘Common Heritage of mankind’ (Part XI).
2) In the light of customary international law, the provisions of Article 21, read in association with Article 19 (on the Meaning of Innocent Passage) and Article 25 (on the Rights of Protection of the Coastal States), recognize (though implicitly) the rights of the Coastal States to take measures to safeguard their security interests including the adoption of laws and regulations regarding, inter alia, the requirements of prior authorization for warships willing to exercise the right of innocent passage through the territorial sea’.

In 1993 Iran introduced a law on marine areas, still in force today, which provides for prior authorisation for the passage into the territorial sea of numerous categories of ships, including warships. This law followed the 1991 Persian Gulf oil spill, a deliberate act of environmental sabotage by Iraqi forces during the Persian Gulf War (the US 'Operation Desert Storm'). It was probably the largest oil spill in history. Iraqi forces, in an attempt to hinder the landing of US troops invading Iraq opened valves on the Kuwaiti Sea Island Terminal releasing tens of thousands of tons a day, released oil from moored oil tankers, tank farms and refineries. That's the seventh point.

Further arguments were superbly outlined by International Lawyer Reza Nasri on 6 April 2026 (see the link below for the full sweep):

"Fourth, even under UNCLOS itself, the regime of non-suspendable innocent passage remains a legally recognized alternative in certain straits. This regime is more restrictive than transit passage and explicitly allows the coastal state to take necessary steps to prevent passage that is not innocent. Iran’s interpretation is therefore not a legal aberration, but a plausible reading grounded in existing law.

Fifth, and most critically in the present context, the law of armed conflict and the UN Charter fundamentally alter the legal landscape. Following an unlawful use of force against it, Iran is entitled to invoke its inherent right of self-defense. In such circumstances, the legal characterization of passage cannot be divorced from the realities of hostilities. Vessels and aircraft associated with belligerent states—or facilitating military operations—cannot claim protected navigational rights while simultaneously contributing to acts of aggression.

International law has never required a state to permit its own territorial sea to be used as a conduit for hostile operations. On the contrary, the right of self-defense permits proportionate measures to prevent such exploitation. Conditioning passage on neutrality and non-hostility is therefore not only lawful but necessary to uphold the integrity of that right.

Finally, the conduct of other states further undermines any claim that Iran’s position is exceptional. The United States itself is not a party to UNCLOS yet selectively invokes its provisions as customary law when convenient."
Reza Nasri International Lawyer 6 April 2026

At the moment Iran requires authorisation for ships wanting transit in the war zone which means they control the their own territorial waters, and run an exclusion zone for safety (and environmental) reasons in the contiguous international waters. The best sea route through the Straits is via Omani seaways. It seems some sort of arrangement is being made with Oman, because while in times of war the Iranians are entitled to block the Strait (on the grounds of safety) what happens when peace returns?

It seems to me there will eventually be a meeting with Gulf countries to sign a document of accession to the Iranian (and possibly Omani) regime. Once the littoral countries sign indicating accession, a formal written protocol that records and authenticates the proceedings, documents, agreements, and specific understandings will be issued. As soon as the respective contracting governments deposit the ratification with the UN, the Treaty will come into force.

If the will is there, this can be done quite quickly. If it isn't, Iran will impose its own rules, which will no doubt coincide with the bulk of the unconsummated text.

Good news: Iran is not a member of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Better news: The United States and Israel are also not members of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
This means Iran has a free hand in designing a new legal order, based on Iran's right to collect transit fees from the Strait of Hormuz.
This means the practical end of 47 years of illegal_sanctions against Iran.
Foad Izadi, Associate Professor, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, 21 March 2026

If Iran was a party to the law of the Sea, it would have to give 'peaceful transit. But it isn't.

Hormuz access could be modeled on the 1936 Montreaux Treaty that regulates access to the Black Sea via Turkiye's Strait of Dardanelle. (The Treaty wording is on page 215 of the pdf of this UN treaties document.) 

Notably, the 'contracting parties' should only be those countries who have a shoreline on the waterway. Other countries could ratify such a treaty, accepting its principles, or not. It doesn't really matter. The basic principles are that peaceful countries should be able to freely navigate the straits, subject only to taxes for transit. In 1936, this was expressed as:

"In time of peace, merchant vessels shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits, by day and by night, under any flag and with any kind of cargo, without any
formalities..."

Accepting that Iran (Persia) controls the entrance to the Persian Gulf, then when Iran is not party to some other countries war that is going on, merchant vessels can pass through; but not military vessels. In 1936 this was expressed as:

"In time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, merchant vessels, under any flag or with any kind of cargo, shall enjoy freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits"

But when Iran is being attacked, countries that are not at war with Iran, and which are not helping the enemy IN ANY WAY can enter and leave the strait under Iran's direction. The 1936 wording is:

"In time of war, Turkey being belligerent, merchant vessels not belonging to a country at war with Turkey shall enjoy freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits on condition that they do not in any way assist the enemy.
Such vessels shall enter the Straits by day and their transit shall be effected by the route which shall in each case be indicated by the Turkish authorities."

You will immediately notice that Iran is implementing these principles right now.

Section 2 of the Treaty of Montreaux covers military vessels in times of peace and times of war. Naval bunkering vessels are allowed limited passage, by arrangement.

In times of peace "light surface vessels, minor war vessels and auxiliary vessels, whether belonging to Black Sea or non-Black Sea Powers, and whatever their flag, shall enjoy freedom of transit through the Straits". This would have to be much more strictly limited in today's world, I would guess.

Under the 1936 treaty, surface ships and submarines of littoral states can pass through, but submarines must pass through surfaced. Foreign ships visiting ports of littoral states are limited in size and in number. In addition, the aggregate tonnage of ships visiting various littoral countries has a hard cap.

Using the 1936 concept, in time of war between nations where Iran is not involved, warships could transit the Strait, subject to previous conditions, but not the warships of those in conflict with each other. The only exception would be if a warship is moving to assist a littoral country which is being illegally attacked.

In a similar way, if Iran feels under imminent danger of attack, or is at war, Iran has the right to close the Strait to warships. Today, this has rightly been extended to ships transporting oil, gas, fertiliser and anything else that may aid the aggressor or those assisting the aggressor. As the Gulf countries are assisting the US-Israeli aggressors, then the Gulf is closed to them. Other ships can pass through, as long as they coordinate with Iran's navy, and pay the tax. The US dollar as a reserve currency allows the US to fund its war on Iran by creating money out of thin air. Therefore, Iran insists that countries use another currency, the yuan.

This is a rough outline of the principle of the 1936 Treaty. A Hormuz Treaty would probably broadly follow these principles.It would also be lodged with the United Nations, and therefore become part of International law. The US and Israel have no respect for international law, but the rest of the world does. Let them go their own way.

Every diplomatic hint I have seen - including Trump's ham-handed comments - point to this being discussed behind the scenes. Iran is already implementing it.

There were only 10 signatories to the Montreaux Convention, and a similar convention today would similarly be restricted to coastal countries of the Gulf. The contracting parties meet at set intervals under the Montreaux Convention, and report to the UN. A Gulf convention would do the same. The US is not a signatory of the Montreaux convention as it has no shoreline in the Gulf.  Today, you can bet it is blocking a behind-the-scenes similar legal convention for Hormuz in an attempt to be a contracting party and founding signatory. It probably won't succeed. Even if it did, its signature on documents is literally worthless.

But Trump is playing against the clock. He is laying the ground work for leaving Israel to sit in their own mess while he agrees to a 'deal'. But he had better hurry.

There were reports that a US warship attempted an unwise 'rush' at the Straits, presumably to test Iranian will. Iran advised they would fire on the warship in the next 30 minutes if it didn't turn back. It turned back.

Under customary international law, any warship or merchant ship being escorted by a warship can be attacked.

"If the United States or Israeli warships actually start to escort merchant vessels in the area, then under Rule 60(d) of the San Remo Manual the escorted ships may be considered as enemy merchant vessels and military objectives. Rule 61 of the San Remo Manual clarifies that any attack on these vessels is subject to the basic rules set out in its Rules 38-46. The Manual, which is currently subject to revision, is widely considered as reflecting customary international law on the law of armed conflict at sea."
Alexander Lott, Associate professor of international law 10 March 2026 



Time log of the de facto Hormuz Treaty added 20 March 2026

?18 March 2026 - Iran designated an inshore passage sealane (between the shore and Iran's Larak Island) for vessels moving through the Gulf, in order for the Iranian Port Authority and IRGC Navy to properly validate ships passing through.

"Considering the wartime situation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz from February 27, 2026, to April 8, 2026 (1404/12/09 to 1405/01/19 in the Iranian calendar), and the likelihood of the presence of various types of anti-ship mines in the main traffic zone of the Strait of Hormuz (as shown on the map), all vessels intending to transit the Strait of Hormuz are hereby informed that, in order to observe maritime safety principles and avoid potential collision with naval mines, and in coordination with the IRGC Navy in the Strait of Hormuz, they should, until further notice, use the following alternative transit routes in accordance with the attached map:

Inbound route: From the Gulf of Oman heading north toward Larak Island, then continuing toward the Persian Gulf (as shown on the map).

Outbound route: From the Persian Gulf, passing south of Larak Island, and then continuing toward the Gulf of Oman (as shown on the map).”

19 March 2026
Around 7 million barrels a day of global oil supply are off the global markets. Insurers won't send ships, oil prices are bid up due to uncertain supply.

The market Japanese Prime Minister visits Trump and says "I also brought specific proposals to calm down the global energy market." This language echos the conclusion from the 2009 international scenario exercise war-gaming the closure of the Straits of Malacca (see Col. Larry Wilkerson interview 21 March 2026). The proposals are likely to be expansion of Japans already very large oil storage capacity, and a sea link from the Alaska Valdez storage facility to Japan (a 7 - 10 day journey). The Valdez 'tank farm' has a capacity of about 6 million barrels. Oil on-sold to Japan will be paid in dollars.  Perhaps petrobonds will also be sold, to offset loss of the Japan 'carry trade'.  Petrobonds are often used to re-finance existing debt, such as US debt.

A former US official of the Directorate of National intelligence and former CIA operative says Trumps task is to first stop Israel's attacks on other countries and if they won't, walk away and say "you're on your own". After that, "make sure the petrodollar is being used". USA will have to "aggressively" pursue its economic interests. Presumably this means strong-arming the Saudis to pay in dollars again, and probably interdicting any ships that leave the Gulf whith oil paid for in yuan. Finally new diplomats will be needed. No doubt Mr. Kent will be available.

20 March 2026 -  as noted above, Iran has already implemented elements of the 'Hormuz Treaty'. Chinese and Russian ships pass through freely. As these are friendly ships, I imagine that they pay minimal tax at this moment. The Pakistani Aframax oil tanker Karachi allegedly paid $US2 million to transit the Strait with 109,000 tonnes of oil bound for Karachi. This appears to be a tax rate of $20 a tonne, or very roughly 17.25 yuan (USD2.50) a barrel for a friendly country. Turkiye charges $5.07 per tonne of cargo as the fee for the passage of ships through the Bosphorus and Dardanelle straits. The fee is indexed to the price of gold.

Does Iran index its transit fee to the price of gold? The concept is there.

Indian ships were allowed to leave after India released the illegally detained Iranian LNG ships. The Indians, who have embraced the Israeli aggressor, will probably have to pay an 'unfriendly' rate, but at least will be allowed transit.

25 March 2026 - Iran allowed the Kingdom of Spain to use the Strait of Hormuz without compliance checks, guaranteeing smooth and unimpeded access. Presumably they will pay the transit fee, but that can be pre-paid.This could be an indicator that the Iranian legislation is on the point of being passed, if not already passed.

27 March 2026 - Pakistan, China, Turkiye, Syria, Gambia, Bangladesh, Greek owned/operated on contract to unknown countries have all passed through the Straits of Hormuz in liaison with the IRGC.

28 March 2026 - Ansar Allah (Houthi) enter the conflict in support of Lebanon, Palestine and Iran. Presumably they now block all ships from aggressor nations from entering the Bab-el-Mandeb straits (This  is Arabic for 'Strait of tears' as the narrow straits bring danger to navigating vesels). About 12% of the worlds oil exports pass through these straits in normal times. Some oil and other goods can still pass through the Northern end and out the Suez Canal.

4 April 2026 - Oman and ⁠⁠Iran ⁠⁠deputy foreign ⁠⁠ministers discussed ⁠⁠the various options to "ensure the smooth transit of vessels through the Strait ‌‌of Hormuz". According to the Omani Foreign Ministry "“During the meeting, experts from both sides presented a number of visions and proposals that will be studied.”

5 April 2026 -  two oil supertankers and one liquefied natural gas carrier transited the Straits of Hormuz "unusually close to the Omani coast”, in other words, within Omani territorial waters. This would definitely have to have been agreed with Iran.

6 April 2026 - Japan and France join the list of countries sending a ship through the Straits of Hormuz.
Iranian lawmakers agreed to form a joint committee of "relevant specialised parliamentary bodies...to review the proposals and draft a comprehensive legal framework" to 'fast-track' the legal process.

10 April 2026 -  The Iranian Deputy Fm confirms even American ships can pass, as long as there no hostile actions against Iran (i.e. from Israel, USA, or anyone else). but he hints that the main channel on the Omani side has been mined, or has remotely controlled explosive-laden unmanned underwater vehicle, and therefore ships must be directed down the safe channels near Iranian  shoreline facilities. And they must first have paid the transit fee.
Saeed Khatibzadeh: I can tell you that, until now [Ed:  at this moment], the Strait of Hormuz is open. Of course, there are technical restrictions because of the war zone and because of many .. arrangement[s] that Iran did during the ...this aggression against Iran. So there are some technical restraints. And this is why ...all the ships that ...would like to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, they have to communicate with our army and our,military contact points there. Because of the limitations in this area, and this area is a very narrow strait.

Including that...there are others, ...arrangements that Iran made for the time of war, and they are still in place. So we have maps, we have everything that...You know, we have to be careful that, the safe passage of tankers and vessels and well-being of crews are actually met during this passage.

Interviewer: And would you allow American vessels through?

Saeed Khatibzadeh: There is no difference, except for hostile behaviour of any kind, you know, presumably. But we think that there is...no sign of that for now. So everyone can pass as usual passage. Of course, I said that, you know, within the restrictions that we do have. So whoever communicates, we provide safe passage through safe channels that we do have in the Strait of Hormuz.
Saeed Khatibzadeh Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran 10 April 2026

Laurie Meadows articles on Security