Security Shift - The 2026 America - Israel Attack On Iran
by Laurie Meadows
10 March 2026 Last edited 21 March 2026
"The war will end only when
Iran’s adversaries understand they no longer have the right to
violate Iranian territory and agree to pay compensation for the
damages caused,”
Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security
Council, 7 March 2026
The US, Israel and
the Europeans have suffered a strategic defeat
The US
Objectives have only been partly met
Iran's missile defense and deterrent
Destroy Electricity
Generation
How long will the
conflict last?
Boots on the ground
Trump's Retreat
The issue of revenge
Iran uses the
wests hybrid war technique
Will
the US, Israel and West capitulate before the global economy
collapses
Iran an ambiguous
nuclear weapons state
Iran Control of the
Straits of Hormuz
The
Convention regarding the regime of the Hormuz Straits
Time log of the de
facto Hormuz Treaty
Iran's Terms
Mediation
US
and Israel are guilty of starting an unprovoked war of choice
Compensation
Consequences
of US and Israeli perfidy
What's Next for the Gulf?
As I wrote in 2023:
"On the 5th of December 2023 The Russian Federation and
Iran signed the "Declaration by the Russian Federation and the
Islamic Republic of Iran on the Ways and Means to Counter,
Mitigate and Redress the Adverse Impacts of Unilateral Coercive
Measures"...Guideline 6 says "In the event of economic or
financial loss incurred as a result of the adoption of unilateral
coercive measures, the State that has inflicted such loss on an
affected State, individuals and legal entities by its actions or
extraterritorial application of its national laws, shall be
primarily held liable for compensation and damages."
This is unequivocal. The west will be held liable for damages and
compensation. As I predicted here on the 11th of November (above),
Russia "is more likely to invoke the international law of State
responsibility which requires a state doing a wrong act to make
full reparations for a 'wrong act', which comprises any or all of
restitution, reparations, and compensation for damage done, both
material and moral."
This history made it easy to predict, as I did on the 3rd of March
2026, that Iran will demand reparations for the 28 February
unprovoked aggression these two countries launched (without warning)
on February 28 2026. The attack was launched in the middle of a
truce and peace negotiations. This is a war crime, the crime of
perfidy.
"War is essentially an evil thing. Its consequences are
not confined to the belligerent States alone, but affect the whole
world. To initiate a war of aggression, therefore, is not only
an international crime; it is the supreme international crime
differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within
itself the accumulated evil of the whole."
International Military Tribunal, Nuremburg, The Trial of German
Major War Criminals, Judgment: 30th September, 1946 - 1st October,
1946, at "Conspiracy and Aggressive War," p.13.
The moral damage is huge. A perfidious sneak attack, the murder of
the head of state, the head of state's daughter-in-law, son and
grandchild, the deliberate murder of school children (including a
repeat strike, this time with a thermobaric weapon to burn any
injured survivors to death in the most horrific manner possible).
America and Israel initiated a war of aggression - the supreme
international crime. On this count alone, the compensation due is
immense.
"Iran’s Ministry of Health announced that more than
15,000 citizens have been injured since the start of the
US-Israeli aggression on Iran.
According to the ministry, 12,495 people have already been treated
and discharged from hospitals, while 670 surgical operations have
been successfully performed. Currently, 1,682 injured individuals
remain hospitalized, receiving ongoing medical care.
The ministry noted that the healthcare workforce has also been
affected, with 12 medical staff members wounded and 72 others
sustaining injuries while performing their duties.
Additionally, the war has caused significant damage to healthcare
infrastructure, including 87 health units, 24 treatment centers,
21 emergency bases, and 18 ambulances, further straining the
country’s medical response capabilities.
Earlier today, Iran’s Emergency Organization announced that the
number of victims since the start of the US-Israeli aggression
against the country has risen to 1,348 martyrs...civilian
casualties continuing to rise"
?9 March 2026
Add in the material damage - the homes destroyed, the hospitals
damaged, the commercial buildings damaged, the military facilities,
the oil refinery, the water desalination plant, the aircraft, the
ships, the medical supply sterilisation units, the ambulances
destroyed, the police stations, the pharmaceuticals manufacturing
facilities - the list goes on and on. Destroyed or damaged.The
aggressors must pay to re-build, restore and repair everything they
damaged.
Add in the human losses. The civilians, the government personnel
from police through medical staff, the local government officials,
and, of course university staff. Killed or wounded. That's without
accounting for military commanders, soldiers, airmen and sailors
killed or wounded. The attack on the oil refinery spread toxic fumes
over Tehran. There will be damaged lungs and increases in cancers as
a result. Each and every injured person must be paid compensation.
And for the injured, the permanently maimed, that payment must
compensate the family dependents for the entire course of a natural
life.
Seyed Abbas Araghchi
@araghchi
Israel's bombings of fuel depots in Tehran violate
international law and constitute ecocide.
Residents face long-term damage to their health and well-being.
Contamination of soil and groundwater could have generational
impacts.
Israel must be punished for its war crimes.
2:33 PM · Mar 16, 2026
Walter
@googlexrp
Burning petroleum releases sulfur and nitrogen oxides that mix
with rain to form sulfuric and nitric acid, essentially turning
rainfall toxic.
When Saddam burned Kuwaiti oil wells in 1991, the fallout
contributed to what became known as Gulf War Syndrome, with
veterans developing chronic illness and cancer decades later.
The difference now: this isn’t a desert battlefield, it’s a
city of 10 million people, most of which women and children.
2:37 PM · Mar 16, 2026
Normally, both the USA and Israel would refuse to pay, or offer
token payments - which they will later renege on. Only the defeated
are forced to pay compensation. The question then is 'has America in
effect suffered a strategic defeat'?
The US,
Israel and the Europeans have suffered a strategic defeat
The US and Europe initiated a hybrid war on the Russian Federation,
using their Ukrainian
proxy as their 'boots on the ground'. So-called 'sanctions'
made up the other part of the hybrid war. The intention in Russia's
case was to inflict what Biden called "a strategic defeat" on
Russia. While the US could impose a sea blockade on Venezuela, they
could not blockade Russia.
In Iran's case, the west hoped to provoke domestic opposition to the
government through the classic techniques the US has always used to
overthrow governments around the world. Paying small groups of
dissidents to riot, massive interference in government via US funded
propaganda channels, and, above all brutal 'sanctions'. The
intention was to immiserate
the population. But nothing worked. So the 28 February surprise
attack was intended to murder as many leaders of civil society and
the military as possible. That, too didn't work.
At the time of first writing, 2130hrs 10 March 2026 (NZDT) Iran
continues to defend itself by destroying US bases in the region and
by significantly de-militarising Israel. And, while the US has been
able to bomb Iran with 500lb glide bombs, Iran has used relatively
light missiles and very light drones to destroy radars and selected
military equipment. The missile campaign is likely to increase to
match the US use of heavy bombs. The Iranian missiles have free
access to Israeli airspace. The Iranian missiles have radar jammers
and use 'chaff' to provide false targets to the Israeli intercept
missiles. The US and Israeli missile defense batteries are both
overwhelmed and of very low effectiveness anyway in the face of the
Iranian countermeasures.
Once Iran moves to heavy missiles the cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa
are able to be destroyed (literally). Large numbers in a small space
create a radius of overlapping overpressure that causes damage not
dissimilar to a small nuclear bomb. Without the radioactive fallout,
and probably without the firestorm. And without the long term
increase in cancers.
The only response from Israel or the US would be a strike on Iran
with nuclear weapons. The laws of war require proportionality, and
the effect of an atomic bomb would be disproportionate. The
Americans and Israelis have exempted themselves from International
law, and the laws of war in particular. They consider that
themselves 'chosen', superior to everyone else. But even
ethnosupremacists cannot take the risk that Iran will not assemble a
nuclear weapon deep underground in some part of that vast country
and respond to Israel's arrogant perfidy with nuclear obliteration.
The US
Objectives have only been partly met
It is clear that Trump is slowly preparing the public mind for a
declaration of "success".
Trump will then declare he has ended the war and attained his
objectives, which are:
1. Destroyed the navy
2. Destroyed Irans missile capability
3. Ended Irans work towards a nuclear weapon
4. Forcibly replace the elected Iranian government in order to seize
control of Iranian oil and gas. As the US did in 1953 (assisted by
the UK).
1. Navy
Yes, Trump has destroyed Iran's larger naval vessels. But large
ships are worthless for a defensive military with limited air
defenses and no real airforce. They are a sitting duck for missiles.
US naval ships there are also useless for exactly the the same
reason.
Trump knows that Iran may already be able to hit a US carrier in the
Mediterranean. Iran has chosen not to do so - yet.
But Iran has fast small missile carrying boats that are hard to hit.
And small submarines. And mine-laying capacity. And undersea drones.
And small surface drone. And bases to hide them in. Many can be
pulled out of the water and hidden until needed.
There is no doubt that the problem of finding and targeting large
naval vessels has been solved by linked autonomous, solar
re-charging, loitering sea drones. These are in constant
communication with the command center by satellite. It is an open
question as whether or not Iran already has such drones.
MIlitary-political analyst Patricia Marins summarised the strategic
shift on January 11 2026:
"Solid-State Batteries: Wolfpacks of Small UUVs Will
Dominate the Seas
UUVs are currently the most dangerous threat to submarines and
military surface ships. Their development is accelerating rapidly,
and I would argue that the smallest ones are the most dangerous.
This week, the first solid-state battery ready for mass production
was announced, with an energy density of 400 Wh/kg. By 2028,
several companies are promising to reach 600 Wh/kg, roughly 3–4
times the density of today’s lithium-ion batteries.
This will completely transform naval warfare.
It not only renders conventional diesel-electric submarines
obsolete but also creates an entirely new category of UUVs: small,
mini, and extremely fast.
I’m talking about UUVs in the 250–350 kg weight, capable of sprint
speeds of 45–50 knots.
They would carry a compact 50 kg warhead using modern explosives,
including CL-20-based mixtures, inside a fuselage largely composed
of solid-state battery cells, supplemented by a small 2.5 kVA
gasoline generator with a snorkel for recharging.
These UUVs could be air-dropped, ships, submarines, from aircraft
or larger drones, and operate in Wolfpack, sprinting up to 35 km
to engage targets.
If the target pulls out of range, the onboard AI calculates that
interception is no longer feasible and switches to recharge mode,
surfacing discreetly, running the generator, and continuing to
track the target via periscope or mast-mounted sensors. It
analyzes surface images, estimates target course and speed, and
calculates the exact energy needed for a new high-speed intercept,
also getting data from satellites or drones, composing a versatile
kill web.
A true high-tech wolfpack: persistent, autonomous, and capable of
engaging both surface ships and submerged submarines (by forcing
them to surface or detecting them when they snorkel).
Warhead design is evolving toward combined shaped charge + blast
configurations: an initial shaped charge penetrates the outer hull
or Kevlar spall liners (creating a breach and injecting energy),
followed immediately by the main high-explosive blast that causes
flooding, shock damage to equipment, and internal compartment
failure.
This mirrors the mechanism of modern lightweight torpedoes.
A UUV carrying just 50 kg of advanced explosive in such a warhead
would be capable of breaching the pressure hull of a
Virginia-class submarine or the hull of an Arleigh Burke-class or
Type 055 destroyers, causing serious flooding and likely achieving
at least a mission kill. In successive impacts from a wolfpack,
the damage would be catastrophic, comparable to that inflicted by
an Mk 54 or MU90 torpedo.
Another key development is the refinement of UUV AI to prioritize
initial strikes against propulsion systems (shafts, propellers,
reduction gears, or waterjets), maximizing the chance of
immobilizing the target early.
These are fully autonomous units that can loiter for weeks,
hunting targets, making independent decisions, and even receiving
software updates while recharging on the surface.
They fit into a broader ecosystem of UUVs, primarily
propeller-driven, torpedo-shaped vehicles weighing 250–350 kg with
warheads of 50–100 kg, but the range of designs and
capabilities is expanding fast.
Their cost is orders of magnitude lower than any manned ship or
submarine, and effective countermeasures do not yet exist. We are
talking about a technology that could put billions of dollars in
naval investments at risk.
The trend is clear: UUVs will continue to get cheaper, faster,
longer-ranging, and smarter, while traditional platforms
(surface ships and submarines) only become more expensive and
vulnerable.
These wolfpacks will be supported and coordinated by drones,
satellites, and motherships.
Just as drones have reshaped land warfare, UUV swarms are doing
the same at sea."
Patricia Marins, Military-Geopolitical analys, X platform 11
January 2026
2. Missiles First edited 13 March
2026
"What I'm trying to do here is give you a case of why
things are going to go to hell in a handbasket as this war goes
on—with regard to attacks against US bases in the Persian Gulf
from drones as well as ballistic missiles, but also damage to
Israel itself from ballistic missiles. This is going to go
downhill big, and we're only beginning to see how bad it's going
to get."
(Professor Postol goes on to describe Irans ability to use
electronic jamming and metallic 'chaff' to defeat US & Israeli
defense missiles)
"So all these missile defenses - whether strategic or tactical-
are worthless.
All this money spent and all these false claims that we can
protect the public from ballistic missiles are now being shown to
be false... I've been talking about this for 35 years.
I showed to the International Institute for Strategic
Studies—people said, "What can we do about it?" I was in London 35
years ago; people came to me and said, "What can we do about it,
Dr. Postol?" And I said, "I'm telling you because I'm trying to
alert you to the fact that you can be defeated, and there are no
countermeasures to these." I'm trying to warn you that you cannot
deal with these things when the adversary chooses to react.
[they replied] "Oh, you're a negative person." Well, I'm
just a scholar trying to inform you of what's technically doable
on both sides..."
Ted Postol, Physicist, MIT Professor and Pentagon advisor
(Retired) 9 March
2026
Irans regional-deterrent missile capability is far from destroyed,
hidden underground. Advances in missile tech continue. Accurate and
unstoppable. Equipped with highly effective chaff and radar jamming.
Soon with ICBM capability. And, as Professor Postol points out there
are no countermeasures.
Israeli and American radars have been destroyed. Warning of incoming
missiles has been reduced to minutes. The Thaad and Patriot
interceptors are demonstrably ineffective. Even cheap drones powered
by 'lawnmower engines' - but linked to, and guided by irdium
satellite feeds - are flying through Israeli and Gulf country
airspace without being shot down.
The US and Israel are exhausting both their attack and defense
missiles. They are turning to 'iron bombs' fitted with glide kits
and standoff aircraft launched missiles, because, for the most part,
they cannot risk entering Iranian airspace.
The pace of air sorties is wearing down men and equipment. Logistic
bases they rely on are now much further away.
"In that last interview I did on the fifth day, I said,
we have passed the peak and are heading downhill. Meaning because
we hit the radar and the infrastructure.
Today, Trump and Netanyahu are trapped in a slaughterhouse in
the Persian Gulf.
Look, the big mistake they made was that they came and designed a
short-term war, but they didn't realize this might turn into a
long-term one.
Even the greatest international powers, if they initially plan for
a short-term war and halfway through it becomes a long-term war,
no matter how much power they have, they will be defeated. Why?
Because short-term wars have a specific design. They require
limited logistics and limited preparations. A long-term war
requires abundant logistics, extensive planning, and they have to
anticipate many consequences.
They thought the Islamic Republic would be finished in 48 hours.
First, they brought one aircraft carrier, then recently they said,
for precaution, let's take another ship too.
But now they are saying, we must bring whatever ships we have from
anywhere in the world so maybe we can handle this....
They came for 48 hours, now if they want to stay long-term, from
the fatigue of the forces to the shortage of ammunition, they will
be burdened with other problems.
Iranian Brigadier General Masoud Akhtari 9 March 2026
Iran's missile defenses are its strategic weapons. They won't give
them up, and they will continue refining them and extending their
range.
"Vast majority of the British People do not want any
part in the Israel-U.S. war of choice on Iran.
Ignoring his own People, Mr. Starmer is putting British lives
in danger by allowing UK bases to be used for aggression against
Iran. Iran will exercise its right to self-defense."
Seyed Abbas Araghchi 21 March 2026
"Iran reveals new missiles and targets Diego Garcia. Far
from showing a reduction in power, the Iranian arsenal continues
to expand.
The WSJ has confirmed that hours ago, following the UK’s approval
for the US to use its bases in the conflict, Iran launched two
ballistic missiles."
Patricia Marins 21 March 2026
Missiles will be able to push American carriers further and further
away, forcing them to rely aerial re-fueling, which creates
vulnerability to SAM anti-aircaft missiles. A third stage added to
the Khorramshahr-4 will enable it to reach almost anywhere in
Europe.
At the moment the Khorramshahr-4's range of around of over 2,000 km
can hit NATO Aegis ashore batteries in Romania, the Mihail
Kogălniceanu Air Base NATO operational hub on the Black Sea, Souda
Bay naval and airbase facility in Greece, and Bezmer airbase in
Bulgaria.
"What the Iranian people want is the continuation of an effective
defense that makes the enemy regret...
Studies have been conducted regarding opening other fronts
where the enemy has minimal experience and where it would be
highly vulnerable. Should the war continue, activation of
such fronts will be carried out based on certain interests."
Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei 12 March 2026
These are obvious targets. Less obvious is the South Stream leg of
the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) bringing decompressed natural gas
to Germany, Italy and Austria. If the pipelines (or pumps) in Italy
are blown up, it will serve the interests of Russia as the
Russia-Turkiye TurkStream pipeline would likely be expanded. These
large expensive gas-turbine compressors would take at least months,
and probably years, to replace.
There are large LNG decompression facilities in the Mediterranean,
but a strike on these would be catastrophic, so they won't be
touched. Iranians are not ethnosupremacists, unlike some western
countries.
With further work, an Iranian 'Khorramshahr-5' would put the Straits
of Gibraltar in range, which means that Iran would have finally
'collected the set'.
This is one of the 2 major reasons why this article is titled
'Security Shift'.
3. Nuclear Weapon
""I can remind your audience about the capabilities of Iran as a
nuclear weapon state.
It is not a non-nuclear weapon state. It is not a nuclear weapon
state that has built a nuclear weapon, at least as far as we know.
But it is a threshold state that could build a nuclear
weapon on very short notice.
And it would not be possible to stop them from building a
nuclear weapon - even if you were using
nuclear weapons on Iran while they were constructing it.
They have enough enriched uranium hexafluoride to construct 10
atomic bombs, which would be far more than enough to finish off
Israel as a state... 10 nuclear weapons would be far more than
needed to end Israel as a state.
There is no way to stop Iran.
Basically, what you need to do could be easily housed in a tunnel
that's not necessarily especially large. You could do the final
enrichment to get weapons-grade uranium and build a nuclear weapon
that does not need to be tested. It's important to understand this
is a uranium weapon, and it would not need to be tested—it
is well within the reach of Iran to build these nuclear weapons.
So we need to start thinking about the possibility we could see
nuclear weapons used.
Now, I do not think Iran will use nuclear weapons against Israel
first, but as this war goes on, Israel's situation is going to
continue to deteriorate. ..."
Ted Postol, Physicist, MIT Professor and Pentagon advisor
(Retired) 9 March 2026
Iran is now an ambiguous nuclear weapons state. The US murdered the
Supreme Leader who prohibited Iran from having a nuclear weapon. The
new Supreme Leaders attitude is not yet known. Iran slowly and
progressively enriched uranium to just below weapons grade in an
attempt in response to the west's craven failure to honour its side
of the agreement to lift sanctions in return to stringent
inspections of Iran's peaceful-purpose nuclear enrichment program.
Trump knew the 60% level put them 2 weeks from a a capacity to build
10 nuclear bombs. He knew at least before June 4 2025, when Tulsi
Gabbard visited Hiroshima (ostensibly privately) when visiting a US
military facility nearby. She knew Iran was a latent nuclear state.
She was criticised for not mentioning the fact that America is the
country that committed that crime. She omitted naming any country
because she was revealing to those with ears to hear that the USA
was aware Iran was at least a latent nuclear state.
She knew the only course was concessions, removing the sanctions in
return for verification. In the discussions immediately before the
perfidious 28 February sneak attack on Iran, Iran agreed to
down-blend the enriched uranium under International Atomic Energy
Agency supervision, which US observers for verification. Iran even
agreed to discussion on bringing its missiles into the 500 kilometer
maximum range under the Intermediate range missile agreement that
Trump himself destroyed. The US got everything it claimed wanted. On
a platter. The Omani mediators confirmed it. Presumably, the
Iranians got sanctions relief.
Trump had a slam dunk solution.
It is clear to me, at least, that Gabbard was promoting exactly this
diplomatic solution. Yet Trump ignored her advice and chose
violence.
Why? No one knows. Maybe because he sent incompetent people (his
son-in-law, and a real estate friend) to a technical discussion. One
whose details they misunderstood, and whose reports back to the
President were simply false and misleading.
"Seyed Abbas Araghchi
@araghchi
Factual knowledge matters.
Case 1: Iran's proposal to ensure NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS was
dismissed because U.S. counterparts didn't grasp the technical details."
13
March 2026
Trump forced Iran into now having to choose whether or not to become
a declared nuclear weapons power.
Notably, nuclear powers are immune from attack from the USA.
4. Overthrow the Iranian Government First edited 11
March 2026. Last edited 12 March 2026
"Iran is much more confident now about itself.
And great harm has been done to its people by adversaries.
And Iran sees its strength. The people see their strength. The
people on the streets recognize their strength. And this is a
reality that the Americans are going to have to deal with from now
on."
Professor Seyed Marandi 10 March 2026
This is barely worth discussion. Iran is a thousands of years old
civilisation, with a strong tradition of resistance to wrong doing
and injustice. This is not 1953. People hold strong opinions, but
they do not abandon their country when attacked by barbarians from
outside.
"...the bottom line here is the bombs change the
political game inside of the target. It infuses nationalism inside
the target because they may not like their leader, but do they
really want to be run by Donald Trump out of the Oval Office? And
...he picks the leader as he's clearly saying he wants to do ? And
he'll kill his way there if necessary? This is not going to work.
And what you're seeing is it's a self-defeating strategy.
It's not just a strategy hasn't been tried enough...I've debated
these folks for decades here. Since 91,92 I've been debating them
and all. Done it in front of the German Air Force, Norwegian Air
Force, so all these excuses why it doesn't work, we've tried them
all...And the reason is ...that bombs produce game-changing
nationalism inside of the society that fuses the society and the
regime closer together.
...it means the strategy itself is self-contradictory. It's
self-defeating. ...my goodness gracious, when you have a
distribution of 100% over a hundred years and you're dealing
with dozens and dozens of cases by different country, different
actors, different presidents, dot dot dot, you got to start to
understand the problem is probably with the strategy."
Dr. Robert Pape, Professor of political science at the University
of Chicago, specializing in security affairs. 11
March 2026 "
Bombing doesn't work. In Iran's case it not only consolidates the
population, it adds massively to the bill that the perpetrators of
the bombing will have to pay. Bearing in mind the war is an
unprovoked war of aggression, the exemplary damages alone will be
huge (let alone punitive damages, and actual damages).
Trump, observing the Russian campaign of destroying Ukrainian power
facilities, threatens Iran with such a strike, claiming it will take
25 years to recreate them.
First, the Russian strikes are in response to Ukrainian
terrorist attacks on its own infrastructure and civilian population.
Similarly, if USA struck Iranian electric power plants, Iran would
respond in a similar manner. But as it can't (yet) reach USA, they
will attack Israeli power plants. Keep in mind 60-80% of Israeli
drinking water comes from 6 desalination plants. And massive
industrial gas turbines account for 70% to 75% of the country's
total electricity generation. They would take years to replace.
Destroy Electricity
Generation Edited 14 March 2026
Second while Trump says he could destroy Iran's electricity
generation capacity, 85% comes from natural gas generators. These
are highly advanced Iranian heavy duty turbines. In the best case it
would take 12 months to replace one. More realistically, 2 years per
turbine.
The Bushehr gas-powered electricity powerplant capacity is 1,130
Megawatts, Yazd1,004, Asaluyeh 1,322, South pars 1,114, and Kish
Island 230 Megawatts. If Trump hits them it would take about 22
years to replace them all, at best. And the global order books for
class F heavy turbines are all full. Replacements simply aren't
available.
On the declared Iranian principle of 'security for all or insecurity
for all' Iran will force Saudi Arabia and UAE to expeditiously build
and re-route the Saudi-Greek interconnector and the UAE-backed
Egypt-Italy Interconnector to replace the lost power. The Gulf will
not be opened to adversaries until the temporary power supply is in
place and compensation (in gold) is pre-paid to restore Iran's
highly advanced 'type F' heavy turbine manufacturing plant.
If Chinese contractors are involved, it might be possible to connect
Iran to Saudi excess power within 2 years. That's how long Iran's
adversaries will be without Gulf oil and natural gas. The nett
result will be windfall profits for Saudi and Russian oil and gas
supplies. It will then be a race against time to re-supply Iran with
electricity and open the Gulf before the western globe falls into a
severe economic recession and high inflation (cutting oil demand and
dropping oil prices).
So Trump can destroy power plants and cause immense misery to
Iranian people. But he can't magically repair and restore the
turbines he wrecks. The Iranians will fully understand that. And
Trump knows it as well.
By destroying Iranian infrastructure he is also destroying Israeli
infrastructure, as night follows day.
"Iran's national infrastructure is under attack. This
time, a branch of my country's oldest bank was bombed while full
of employees. They were laboring to ensure Iranians have food on
the table ahead of our New Year.
Our Powerful Armed Forces will exact retribution for this crime"
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi 12
March 2026
"the enemy has opened the door for us to target economic
centers and banks affiliated with the US and Israel in the
region.”
Lieutenant Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaqari 12
March 2026
On the 12th of March the US destroyed an Iranian bank. Iran promised
to strike US banks throughout the Gulf. Once again, any attack on
Iranian infrastructure will be met by a mirror resonse on US and
Israeli infrastructure.
"Today, our verdict is the rule of 'an eye for an eye',
straightforward, without exception… If they start a war on
infrastructure, we will undoubtedly target theirs."
“The enemy should know that whatever they do, it will
undoubtedly face a proportional and immediate response; no
act of aggression will go unanswered"
Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament
The US threatened Iranian commercial ports. Iran promised to destroy
Israeli and Gulf ports.
"On Wednesday, the spokesman of Iran’s Armed Forces
warned that all ports and economic centers in Persian Gulf
littoral states will be considered legitimate targets for Iran if
the United States attacks Iranian ports as part of the ongoing
joint aggression with Israel against the country.
“If the US follows through with its threat against Iran’s ports,
there will definitely be no port, economic center, or location in
the Persian Gulf that could remain beyond our reach, and they will
be struck as legitimate targets,” Brigadier General Abolfazl
Shekarchi said."
PressTV News 12
March 2026
Boots on the ground added
17 march 2026
Seyed Abbas Araghchi
@araghchi
When the U.S. Secretary of War declares “no quarter”, he doesn't
project strength. He conveys moral bankruptcy and ignorance about
law of armed conflict.
We advise him to review the Hague Convention and Rome Statute of
the ICC, unless he aspires to join Netanyahu as war
criminal.
8:35 AM · Mar 17, 2026
Several highly respected military commentators such as Scott Ritter,
Andrei Martyanov, and Douglas macGregor have explained the
impossibility of a US land force overthrowing the Iranian people's
government. Peter Brian
Hegseth, the crazed crusader from the US Defense Department
has incited US troops to commit war crimes, which American domestic
law prohibits them from obeying. Iran calmly says it is waiting for
the American troops to arrive. They will be all killed or captured.
And then Iran will issue an arrest warrant for Peter Brian Hegseth for war crimes.
Trump's Retreat
The Kharg Island misdirection
On March 14 the US destroyed all the military installations
protecting the Kharg Island oil terminal handling almost all Iran's
oil exports. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's oil terminal
infrastructure unless Iran opened the Straits of Hormuz. Perhaps he
calculates the Iranians won't carry out their threat to destroy Gulf
country oil infrastructure in reprisal. If so, he might think if he
airdrops troops onto the Island the Iranians won't fire on them
because Iranian fire would destroy their Iran's own infrastructure.
He is wrong. Iran would not hesitate to fire on US military on the
island. Iran can remain calm in the face of hitting its own
infrastructure because Gulf states will then have to pay Iran the
lost export income. They will have to pay until such until
such time as the oil terminal is repaired (and why would Iran
hurry?). There is another possibility, albeit a little farfetched.
Iran won't talk to USA, for obvious reasons. In the meantime, the
Gulf countries are extremely worried. (Amongst many other
things, the Umrah religous pilgrimage to Mecca season is only 7
months away, and requires a huge logistic effort to accommodate
flights, food, hotels etc for Muslim pilgrims visiting from all over
the world) But as food supplies shorten, tourism ends, belts
tighten, so the discontent of the populations of these feudal
family-owned governments increases.
Donald J. Trump
@realDonald Trump
The United States of America has beaten and completely decimated
Iran, both Militarily, Economically, and in every other way, but
the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz
Strait must take care of that passage, and we will help - A LOT!
The U.S. will also coordinate with those Countries so that
everything goes quickly, smoothly, and well.
This should have always been a team effort, and now it will be -
It will bring the World together toward Harmony, Security, and
Everlasting Peace!
President DONALD J. TRUMP
Mar 14, 2026, 7:58 PM
Perhaps, behind the scenes, via the Omanis, the Gulf states, plus EU
countries, Japan, Korea - whoever has some money - have agreed to
Iran's reparations demand. After all, the alternative is global
depression. Reparations will also have to be paid to the Houthi, who
control the Red Sea, and thus the passage of oil carriers loading
from the Saudi Red Sea pipeline (very large crude carriers are too
big for the Suez canal end of the Red Sea). Perhaps reparations will
have to be paid to Hezbollah for the intentionally wrongful acts of
Israel and the USA.
Perhaps it was tacitly 'agreed' Trump could strike the military
sites on Kharg Island. Iran claims, and it seems correct, no
one was harmed and the site is still functional and loading out oil.
Meanwhile, Trump dispatched the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit along
with the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, allegedly to Kharg
Island. This seems like theater, a dramatic theatrical element for
Trump to show the American public the power of the USA military
(Treasury Secretary Bessant is so impressed with the US military he
wants his teenage son to ultimately join). A further amphibious
vessel was dispatched, due about mid April.
It is shaping up for Trump to assemble some US and vassal state
ships around the Gulf 'to protect' ships entering and leaving.
Around 1,000 kilometers out to sea to avoid Iranian missiles, of
course. It seems to me that Trump will try to use Japan and some
other countries (or even the amphibious ships) to seize any
shiploads of oil that haven't paid in dollars, rather than dollars.
This, as is usual, would backfire on him.
Crossing the finish line before its too late
In this scenario, Iran runs the Strait in line with a de facto
'Hormuz Treaty' (outlined
below), but in actuality allows all ships (except US and
Israeli) passage as long as the unfriendly countries
continue to pay the toll. Trump hinted at this. When he said "the
Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait
must take care of that passage" the term "take care of" should be
understood as 'take care of the bill'.
But Iran goes on bombing Israel for all the reasons I outlined here.
And again, this is hinted at
by 'former' American security official Joseph Kent.
The American polity reject the notion that America should go to war
on behalf of Israel's expansionist plans, and the same 'former'
official more or less confirms that Israel will have to stop its
regional aggressions permanently, or it won't receive US weapons or
backing.
On the 21 March 2026 Trump signaled that he is about ready to wash
his hands of his misadventure:
"We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as
we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle
East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran:
(1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers,
and everything else pertaining to them.
(2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base.
(3) Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft
Weaponry.
(4) Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability,
and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and
powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place.
(5) Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies,
including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates,
Bahrain, Kuwait, and others.
The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as
necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does
not!
If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts,
but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated.
Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them.
Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J.
TRUMP
Mar 21, 2026, 10:13 AM
Trump has promised Gulf leaders personal protection as long as they
pay in dollars - that's how I read it.
"“Today we are talking about certain leaks in which the
American president is demanding that the GCC states pay
approximately $5 trillion if they want this war to continue, and if
they want it to stop, they must pay $2.5 trillion to the
United States for what has been accomplished over the past
period...”
Salem Al-Jahouri, Omani journalist and international affairs
researcher 20
March 2026
Trumps signal follows the shoot down of an F35, and March 20 fire of
Iranian advanced missiles at the UK-US base on Diego Garcia.
Trump can later blame Netanyahu - and some of his staff - for
dragging America into an unwanted war, but now he can claim
(falsely) he has met all his aims. He can falsely claim Iran is a
"terrorist" (but no one cares about this garbage-talk any more.) He
can claim that he, Trump, has brought peace to the region blah,
blah, blah. But no one cares what he says to his domestic audience.
It is over.
"Americans haven’t forgotten how, even as hundreds of
U.S. soldiers were dying in Vietnam, and the outcome was already
clear, General William Westmoreland was flown home to reassure
everyone that the war was going well — that the U.S. was
“winning.”
The media haven’t forgotten either; those briefings full of
fantasy from the frontlines became infamous as the “Five O’Clock
Follies."
Fast forward to today: same script, different stage; Hegseth steps
up, and the message is still detached from reality.
U.S. government says one thing, reality says another.
Right as U.S. authorities claim Iran’s air defences are gone, an
F-35 gets hit.
As they declare Iran’s navy finished, USS Gerald Ford turns back,
and USS Abraham Lincoln drifts farther away
Different decade, same “we’re winning”"
Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Foreign Minister, Islamic Republic of Iran
21 March 2026
Trumps claims to dominate the skies over Iran has gone, and his
claim of having destroyed Iran's missiles is looking more ridiculous
every day. He will have to act very fast. I previously predicted
that he would announce the end of his war on monday 23rd (making
money on the futures market on the way). This seems increasingly
likely. But if not this monday then midweek (a good news drop time)
or the following monday.
One positive result for US taxpayers is that the US will save huge
amounts of money by exiting the bases in the Gulf. It also enables
Trump to abandon Israel, and stop paying vast amounts of taxpayer
money to them. True, Netanyahu's freedom from prison relies on
keeping Israelis insecure by fomenting constant aggressions inside
and around the country, but it is up to Israelis to 'see the light'
and find another leader. If they don't, Iran will keep lazily
attacking their military from now to the end of time.
This gives Trump a very good face-saving backdown. Not only that,
Trump receives benefits.
Here's Trumps finger in the pie: First, sanctions on Iran will end.
This means US firms can sell goods to Iran. Gulf states are stuck
with 'picking up the tab' for reparations. Reparations can include
goods in kind (Germany had to hand over a lot of industrial
equipment to Russia after world war 2). The US may persuade Gulf
States to buy non strategic goods of a humanitarian (non-strategic
from Iran's perspective, not America's) to 'donate' to Iran.
Consumables of all kinds would fit this description, as well as raw
materials and building materials. Cement, wood for framing, rolled
steel joists, sheet metal, that sort of thing. If Iran were buying
these materials on the international market, they would buy them
from China, as that is the cheapest source. But as they are 'free',
that is reparations for the Israeli - US crimes, the price doesn't
come into it. Trump can. of course, frame it as 'selling' great
American goods to the Iranians.
Second Trump sells oil in dollars via Japan. Later he will sell gas
to a Japanese co-owned strategic store.
Iran achieves its security and keeps the US out of the Gulf. And it
makes those who committed these crimes pay. And pay. And pay.
How
long will the conflict last? Added 11 March
2026
"Ceasefire is not an option. This war will continue
until Iran's demands are met.
Iran will no longer accept a situation in the region where the
United States can threaten it again. That's over.
Professor Seyed Marandi 10 March 2026
""There is a consensus that we must act in such a way that the
shadow of war is permanently removed from the country,...We must
not allow our enemies to simply continue their aggressions,
starting them whenever they wish, and then raising their hands to
declare a halt only when they come under heavy pressure and incur
costs."
Esmaeil Baghaei spokesman Foreign Ministry of Iran 12
March 2026
Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council
has already said the conflict will last until two conditions exist:
1. When the Americans, Israelis, and adversarial Gulf and European
countries "understand" they have no 'right' to violate Iranian
territory in any way, ever.
2. When Iran's "adversaries" agree to pay compensation.
Taking the first condition, how will this 'understanding' of the
inviolability of International law be reached? The US and Israel in
particular consider themselves to be 'superior', 'special', and that
the laws that apply to all the other countries of the world don't
apply to them. Because 'they said' they don't.
It seems to me all 'adversarial' countries will have to publicly
lodge a letter with the United Nations Security Council stating
clearly and unambiguously that they will no longer violate Iranian
territory and will also obey laws that relate to respectful
relations between states. This, of course, is meaningless in the
case of USA, Israel and some European countries, as these nation can
not be trusted. But form must be followed.
The real "understanding" is the practical demonstration by Iran that
aggression from now on will be met with resolute and powerful
defensive measures - both military and economic. Most importantly,
severe physical damage will be done to regional adversaries, while
severe economic damage will be done to US and European adversaries.
(It is reasonable to expect that in the not too distant future both
the East coast of USA and all of Europe will be within range of
Iranian retaliatory long range missile strikes.)
"In an outright lie, Trump claimed that Iran’s missile
launches have severely diminished. But in reality, Iran is more
powerful even compared with the early days of the war and is
targeting US and Israeli bases with warheads weighing more than a
ton
American forces are not the ones who determine the end of the war,
we are fully capable of expanding the war. Security will be for
all and insecurity will also be for all.
We are the ones who determine the end of the war”
Iranian IRGC Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini
The conflict will not end when the USA says so.
First, Iran must destroy Israels military capacity
comprehensively.
Second, the USA and European military must re-deploy out of
the region.
Third, all adversaries must sign the required letter of
future compliance with International law, and then either commence
first payments of reparations compensation or wait until Iran has
seized enough assets to cover reparations.
Then there is the issue of
revenge.
"The revenge we have in mind is not just because of the
martyrdom of the illustrious Leader of the Revolution.
Every member of the nation who is martyred by the enemy
constitutes a separate case that demands seeking revenge.
A limited portion of this seeking revenge can already
be seen.
But until we completely take revenge, this file will remain on
top of all the others. We’re even more sensitive with regard
to the blood of our children and infants. The crime deliberately
committed by the enemy against the Shajarah-Tayyibah School in
Minab and other similar cases will receive particular attention in
this process of taking revenge."
Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei 12 March 2026
"The unknown fate of the Zionist criminal prime minister and the
possibility of his death or his escape, along with his family,
from the occupied territories reveal a crisis and the faltering
situation of the Zionists, if the child killer is still alive, we
will strongly keep chasing and killing him.”
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps 15
March 2026
The equation seems to be that until as many Israeli military die as
Iranians, including high ranks, nothing will be settled. But because
civilians, including children have been murdered, then the price the
Israelis pay must be much higher. The Americans are the primary
aggressor. Yet there have been almost no deaths. American don't care
how many people they kill, brown or white (Yugoslavia), but they are
very sensitive about their own soldiers being killed. As Vietnam and
Afghanistan proved, the Americans won't leave until a substantial
number of American military are dead. But in the process, more
Iranians will be killed by USA. These will also have to be avenged.
On 15 March 2026 the IRGC said attacks on American bases in the 52nd
wave of retaliations was for 'the blood of workers killed in US -
Israeli industrial towns. (A list
of targets of the various waves and the missiles used is published
on PressTV website.)How long will this cycle go on? Until the global
economy collapses and the USA stops its aggression.
At that point Iran could agree to end the military phase.
But that is only part one of a two part process.
Iran uses
the West's hybrid war technique
The west tried to destroy Russia's economy, make its people suffer
and seize control of its mineral assets via sanctions and a proxy
war. Details.
The west tried to destroy Iran economy, make its people suffer and
seize control of its mineral assets via sanctions and a proxy war.
Now Iran will blockade and sanction the west and make its people
suffer. Iran will seize back the opportunities for development the
west stole from Iran. It will demand full compensation for
everything it has suffered. It will demand punitive damages.
Iran Control
of the Straits of Hormuz
Iran militarily controls entry and exit through the Straits of
Hormuz. It decides which ships enter and which ships are locked out.
This is what the US did to Venezuela. But Iran controls the Straits
from land as well as sea. Immediately, from the hills around the
coast, but also from its strategic depths far inland. From missile
silos hidden deep in the mountains all across the country.
Iran controls, and will control, the chokepoints exiting the Persian
Gulf and Red Sea. I previously proposed the obvious - marine goods
will be allowed to flow once again, but the US and aggressor
countries will have to pay a tariff until reparations are paid in
full. (This will take decades.)
It is beyond obvious, even to the most inept and foolish person,
that the Straits will remain closed until all seized money is
returned (with interest) and every sanction is fully and permanently
removed from Iran.
No signed agreement is needed. Why? Because countries that refuse to
return the money or attempt to re-impose 'sanctions' will have their
ships banned from the Middle East.
The US and Israel knew this would happen. Prior to the February 2026
suprise attack, Iran repeatedly warned the US that if it was
attacked again (in spite of the truce that Iran agreed to at the US
sides request) then Iran would immediately attack US bases in the
region, as well as Israel.
Yet on the 28th of February 2026 the US and its Israel proxy
launched another sneak attack under cover of truce and while
negotiations were on-going - the war crime of 'perfidy'. Apparently
the US and Israel did not think the Iranians were serious.
Bases in Gulf States were attacked, ships entering or exiting the
Gulf had insurance refused or cancelled, all trade ground to a halt,
shipborne oil and LNG gas income was placed at risk. The Gulf states
were, and still are, furious. The US cannot, and did not, protect
them. Various Gulf states told Iran they would not allow their
territories to be used as a base from which Americans could attack
Iran. But many states reneged, and became parties to the conflict.
And Iran is already applying rules broadly consonant with the Montreaux
Treaty of 1936.
"Iran is not going to accept a ceasefire. That's out of
the question. Conditions will have to be met and those conditions
will be met.
And these Arab family dictatorships in the Persian Gulf first
and foremost are the ones who are going to have to obey and
accept Iran's conditions.
Iran is now talking about controlling the Strait of Hormuz from
now on, and receiving money for allowing ships to pass through.
This is what these Arab regimes had brought upon themselves. these
dictatorships.
They thought that they could have their cake and eat it too. That
they could have US bases and threaten Iran and have Iran bombed,
and then Qatar and the Emirates and the regime in Bahrain, Kuwait
and the Saudis, they could say that we're neutral and get away
with it. That's not happening.
Right now they're paying a price, but even when the war ends,
they will continue to pay a price. They have to compensate for
all the things that they've done against Iran. We're living
in a new reality, Glenn.
Professor Seyed Marandi to Professor Glenn Diesen 10 March 2026
The new Supreme leader made it official on 13 March 2026:
"... the leverage of closing the Strait of Hormuz must
definitely continue to be employed."
Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei 12 March 2026
Therefore, those Gulf countries that allowed their airbases to be
used for re-fuelling will also have to pay.
When the US-Israeli aggression ends, a new form of regulation of the
straits is likely to be developed - with the Gulf countries.
Once the US-Israeli project to destroy Iran fails - and Russia and
China will ultimately make sure it does - Israel, once a US proxy,
will slowly lose economic support. Israel, the primary state
terrorist in the region, will slowly start to learn civilised
behaviour.
Iran's Terms
First edited 11 March 2026, last edited 13 March 2026
"Talking to leaders of Russia and Pakistan, I
reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region. The only way
to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime & US—is
recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and
firm int'l guarantees against future aggression."
Masoud Pezeshkian, Ninth President of the Islamic Republic of Iran
12
March 2026
"Shutting down US bases in the region will enable those
governments to strengthen their ties with their own people, who
are generally dissatisfied with the humiliating behavior
associated with those bases. It will also bring an increase in
their wealth and power."
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei 12
March 2026
"The fifth part of my address is directed to the leaders and
influential figures in certain regional countries. We share land
or sea borders with 15 countries and have always wanted, and still
want, warm, constructive relations with all of them. However, the
enemy has been gradually establishing military and financial bases
in some of these countries over the years to secure its dominance
over the region.
In the recent attacks [against Iran], a number of military bases
were used. Naturally, as we had clearly warned in advance, we have
only targeted those bases without committing any act of aggression
against those [regional] countries.
After this, we will have no choice but to continue this
course of action even though we still believe in the necessity
of maintaining our friendship with those neighbors.
These [regional] countries must determine their position with
regard to the aggressors who have attacked our beloved homeland
and murdered our people. I advise them to shut down those [US]
bases as soon as possible, for they must surely have realized by
now that the US’s claims of ensuring security and peace have been
nothing but lies."
Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei 12 March 2026
"Iran has formally called on the United Arab Emirates to provide
compensation for damages resulting from recent US strikes, saying
Abu Dhabi facilitated attacks on Iranian territory, according to a
letter submitted to the United Nations.
In a correspondence addressed to UN Secretary-General Antonio
Guterres, Iran’s UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani said the UAE had
enabled the United States to use its territory to carry out
military operations against Iran.
Iravani stated in the letter that the UAE’s actions constituted
“an internationally
wrongful act that entailed state responsibility,” stressing
that allowing foreign forces to launch attacks from its target
launch sites in the Gulf Earlier on March 14, the spokesperson for
Iran’s central Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters warned that Iranian
forces may target US missile launch sites operating from
locations inside cities in the UAE. Lieutenant Colonel
Ebrahim Zolfaghari said the US military had resorted to
operating from ports, docks, and concealed facilities within UAE
cities after its military bases in the region were
destroyed...US forces launched missiles from these locations
targeting the Iranian islands of Abu Musa and Kharg.
...Although several Gulf states have publicly claimed that their
territories would not be used for attacks against Iran,
open-source information suggests otherwise. Flight-tracking data
indicate that Saudi Arabian airspace is being used by aerial
refueling tankers supporting fighter aircraft involved in strikes
against Iran. The Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia has
reportedly hosted multiple Stratotanker refueling aircraft
participating in these operations.
Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates hosts anti-missile radar
systems and interceptor batteries, along with logistical
infrastructure supporting both US and Israeli personnel, including
facilities used for resupply and operational coordination soil
violated international law.
The Iranian envoy underscored that such conduct directly
contributed to the aggression against Iranian territory, holding
the UAE accountable for its alleged role in enabling the strikes.
Tehran argued that the UAE bears international responsibility to
provide full reparations, including compensation for both material
and moral damages caused by the attacks.
Al Mayadeen English March 2026
Gulf countries must not host US bases. Iran will not stop attacking
US bases in the Gulf, even after the war ends.
We know Iran will require the US to leave the Gulf militarily. We
know Iran will demand full compensation. The new leader also has a
goal of regime change in Israel.
"Without a doubt, cooperation between the members of the
Resistance Front will shorten the path to eliminating the Zionist
sedition."
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei 12 March 2026
He says a 'zionist sedition' occurred on January 8-9 2026 with the
goal of de-stabilising Iran and turning the Iranian people against
the government. He listed the events of those time - rioters hiding
behind peaceful shopkeeper protests, a 'coup-like' targeting of
government agencies, the whole action planned by the CIA and Mossad,
killings engineered by trained ringleaders to increase the death
toll, followed finally by the people coming out in massive numbers
in support of the government.
It seems to me the term 'zionist sedition' should be understood as
killing Mossad operatives, causing levels of destruction of military
targets such that the zionist political faction falls, settler
Israelis return to their own country, and the balance of political
power in Israel tips in favor of somewhat more normal Israelis. Of
course, it includes expelling CIA bases from Gulf countries. In
other words, the CIA will be confined to US embassy staff only.
The current conflict is a golden opportunity for the root cause of
many problems to be finally resolved. This seems to be the intention
of the Iranians.
"...the United States started this war and must also
acknowledge that it made a mistake and put an end to its
aggression. We are not seeking a ceasefire because we do not want
this scenario to be repeated again after some time.
Rather, we want the war to end completely and permanently...
We desire lasting peace throughout the entire region
encompassing all the countries within it.
We do not believe in a ceasefire. We believe in ending the war.
...Ending the war on all fronts. I think this is also in the
interest of peace in the region.
That once and for all the issues of war
in the region is resolved and that we witness peace throughout
the region in Lebanon, in Yemen, in Iraq, in Iran and in other
countries of the region.
The region should become a stable region characterized by peace,
development and progress. I believe that peace in the region must
be comprehensive encompassing all dimensions of peace and
including all countries.
Foreign Minister Araghchi 18 March 2026
I present my ideas of what other terms and conditions Iran might
require. These make perfect sense to me - but of course none of us
are walking in Iran's shoes.
The Hormuz Straits will likely be tolled. Houthis will toll the Red
Sea. This leverage means Iran can enforce terms that solve its own
and many regional problems. While the list below is in what I think
is the order of likelihood, and is speculative, the first 3 are
certain:
Iran won't re-open the Gulf to western adversarial ships until:
1. Iran has prepared a bill of reparations by country with
the current (inflation adjusted) amount from past crimes and
coercive practices, plus reparations due for damages done in the
on-going effort to defeat the aggressors. Payment mechanisms are
flexible, and not yet in place (as far as we know), but definitely
include seizing adversaries assets - all cargoes of oil and gas, and
the ships transporting them.
2. Recognition of Iran's already existing rights (as a signatory of
the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty) to nuclear enrichment for
civil purpose (sterilization, cancer treatment etc)
3. Nuclear weapons states provide written guarantees of Iran's
security (probably by bilateral Security Agreements along Russia's
2009 outline, with Article
7 being highly pertinent)
4. All sanctions on Iran are lifted
5. Iranian money stolen by USA is returned in full, all interest
paid
6. The US, Israel, and NATO countries withdraw all their military
and military facilities from Gulf countries
7. Israel withdraws from Lebanon
8. Israel is forced to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
(NPT) and commence enabling the required international inspections,
including by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
9. Israel and US gets out of Gaza and Gulf states pay for full
reconstruction
10. Israel borders are legally fixed and there is either one
democratic state or 2 viable states on the 1967 borders determined
by the relevant UN resolutions
The west is notorious for not keeping to its agreements. Barely had
the now expired JCPOA agreement been signed and the promised relief
of sanctions on Iran disappeared.
The moment Israel does some crime - they act like 2 year olds, with
no restraint - the Straits of Hormuz will be closed to the
adversarial countries with reparations still outstanding - until
such time as the USA (or more likely their financial sugar daddies)
has/have paid reparations for Israel's latest crime in full, or Iran
seizes sufficient assets to cover the bill. With the addition of
punitive damages (Israel is a US proxy).
Mediation
It is uncertain if mediation is necessary. Iran holds all the cards.
If there were to be mediation, China is the obvious choice.
"There are many countries, our friends that have
proposed ideas and expressed readiness to play a role in achieving
peace. We thank all of our friends who are making efforts in this
regard. Our position is the same as what I have stated here and we
have also conveyed it to our friends.
We do not accept a ceasefire. However, if there is an idea for
ending the war that meets our conditions so that the war ends
permanently across the entire region and the damages suffered by
Iran are compensated, we will certainly listen to it...in my view,
several countries can play this role. China is one of them.
China played a positive and successful role in mediating between
Iran and Saudi Arabia and I believe that both remain committed to
the agreement reached through China's mediation. China certainly
has strong capacities and alongside it other countries also have
such potential. I repeat, any idea that meets our demands and
fulfills our conditions, we will listen to it.
Foreign Minister Araghchi 18 March 2026
US
and Israel are guilty of starting an unprovoked war of choice
"...everything about the current situation is the
Americans fault. They must answer not only to their own people but
also to our people, to the people of the region, and to history in
the future. This war is not our war, not the war of the American
people, nor the war of the region. It is America's war. A war that
the United States itself chose...This war was imposed on us and we
had warned about it in advance. We did not turn this into a
regional war simply because attacks are coming from countries in
the region. Their military bases in the region are being used
against us. It is the United States that has turned it into a
regional war, not us...I will repeat this war is not our war.
We did not start it.
The United States started it and is responsible for all the
consequences of this war, human and financial.
Whether for Iran, for the region, or for the entire world, the
United States must be held accountable."
Foreign Minister Araghchi 18 March 2026
Compensation
"A point I must highlight is that in any case, we
will obtain compensation from the enemy.
If they refuse, we will take it from their assets to the
extent we deem appropriate.
If that wasn’t possible, we will destroy an equivalent amount
of their assets."
Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei 12 March 2026
The Iranians may allow the west to join together to compensate in a
lump sum. The World Bank may be forced to pay, for example. The US
may 'sell' Iran Venezuela's oil at a massive discount for the next
50 years (or however long it takes) so that Iran can on-sell it at a
good profit. There are many ways to skin a cat. Without a doubt, a
tonnage tax on passage will play a major part.
Early in the conflict, on March 14, ideas had not yet solidified:
"In order for Iran to get paid for all these damages,
there are different ideas. One idea is levying tax on ships that
are passing through and then yes, you can play with that tax
rate, make it lower for friendly countries, make it higher for
hostile countries. That's a way of generating revenue for
paying all these damages.
The other idea is creating a fund, a regional reconstruction fund,
and through that regional reconstruction fund Iran's damages would
be paid.
Iran needs to make sure that the cost of attacking Iran is
significant enough both financially and in terms of human
cost that Iran is not attacked again."
Dr. Foad Izadi Pofessor of Communication, Tehran University 14 March 2026
Insofar as Gulf states are the enemy, Iran can certainly interdict
their oil export assets, or seize, for example, North Pars. But
there are no US assets in Iran to seize. The US has been preparing
for this attack for a long time. Sanctions were an excuse, in part,
to make sure Iran couldn't seize any assets once the US - Israeli
attack came. Yet the Gulf is full of assets - oil, gas, fertilizer.
No unfriendly country will receive anything unless they pay in
advance. If they complain, well they can ask the US to re-imburse
them. This means that Europe will plunge into ruin. Before it comes
to that, they will stop giving money to Ukraine, and start giving
money to Iran.
But however the US and Israel offload their financial punishment
onto others, the price will flow through into the global price of
oil. For decades. Gulf countries will probably finance the US debt.
They will retrieve the cost by increasing the price of oil and gas.
The US cannot escape the effect.
"There are demands but they are not directed, they're
not directed at anyone in particular, at any entity in particular.
So the issue of compensation for example is something that has
been stated, but who compensates doesn't matter to us if Japan
wants to compensate or Kuwait wants to compensate or the United
States wants to compensate that's not the issue.
They've murdered many people. They've destroyed the lives of many,
and through aggression, through an unprovoked and illegal and
immoral war to support ethnosupremacism, to support a genocide in
Gaza. I mean, this is evil upon evil upon evil, and so there will
have to be compensation.
Professor Seyed Marandi 11 March 2026
That's the mechanism - positive incentives for compliance and fair
dealing, collective punishment for debtor states until the
non-compliance is fixed. With increasing 'fines' for continued
non-compliance in future.
As for Trump - he is a devious and foolish person, and nothing
should be concluded with him. He is not capable of keeping
agreements, is devious and malign.
"I no longer see any room for diplomacy. Because [US
President] Donald Trump deceives others and does not keep his
promises, and we experienced this in two rounds of negotiations.
While we were negotiating, they attacked us.
The Persian Gulf Arab countries and other countries must put
pressure on the United States to end the war. If it continues,
this pressure will increase, and thereby others will have no
choice but to intervene”
Kamal
Kharrazi, Head
of Iran's Strategic Council of Foreign Relations 9 March 2026
No agreement is necessary.
Consequences
of US and Israeli perfidy Added 11 March 2026
“Today, our verdict is the rule of 'an eye for an eye',
straightforward, without exception… If they start a war on
infrastructure, we will undoubtedly target theirs.
The enemy should know that whatever they do, it will undoubtedly
face a proportionate and immediate response; no act of aggression
will go unanswered”
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf Speaker of the Parliament of Iran ?10
March 2026
"What more can they do? If they want to destroy Iran's key
infrastructure, that's a possibility.
But then Iran will destroy all key infrastructure in this
region. Everything. All the oil and gas installations in the
Persian Gulf region and in the Caucasus will be gone, finished.
They won't be damaged. They'll be destroyed.
And that will mean that the key infrastructure of the United
States will collapse.
The world will collapse because we will enter a severe global
economic depression.
If that's what the United States wants, that's what it will get.
But the world will know that it's the United States that did this.
It will know that the Zionists did this.
It will know that Netanyahu did this.
Because Iran does not want war. Iran does not want to expand the
war.
We want to live in peace.
We want the rights of Palestinians and the Lebanese and the people
of Syria to be restored.
That's a very normal expectation.
But if war is imposed upon us, we will respond with counter
measures. We will punish the enemy. And now the United States has
lost everything in the Persian Gulf region. And and the damage
that has been done to the United States is far greater so far than
to Iran because the Persian Gulf region is [has] all of these
American assets.
...This oil is not being sold. What is it sold in? It's sold in
dollars. That is one. Two, a lot of this money goes to the US
stock market. And for bonds, there's no money, so it's not going
to go there.
And there's huge damage has been done to these regimes. It's not
just the drone or the missile that hits. It's the entire
confidence that used to exist about these regimes where huge
amounts of money from across the world would go, to the Emirates
for example. That's disappeared.
So these are all US assets and they're huge consumers. The amount
of consumption that these Arab family dictatorships in the Persian
Gulf have is is equivalent of maybe the African continent or the
Latin American continent. I can't say with specifics, but they are
huge consumers. Huge consumers. Well, they're not consuming
anymore.
...and of course the the worth of the entire western side or
southwestern side of the Persian Gulf has collapsed. It is no
longer a place where you can in future invest in, or you can have
confidence in.
...So the the damage done to the United States and the West
through its own aggression against Iran and of course the Israeli
regime which is being hammered day and night.
What fool is going to invest in Israeli regime in future? This is
the second time Iran has been pounding it for eight in the last
eight nine months. So all of these are huge.
We're the country that's sanctioned. We don't have foreign
investors. Any investment is carried out by individuals in Iran
and the government. That will continue to be the case. But I
think for the United States, this is this is a sea change."
Professor Seyed Marandi 10 March 2026
The immediate and medium term consequences are becoming obvious, but
long term consequences will only become obvious in time.
I will briefly mention the more important negative consequences over
the ensuing months.
Oil
20 million barrels a day are now offline. In 10 days that is 200
million barrels. Every countries situation is different, but the G7
has about 1,200 million barrels of reserves. So in several months
time the reserves will be gone.The price of oil will skyrocket.
Until recession, economic stasis, destroys demand for oil.
As of 11 March 2026 about 6% of global production has disappeared.
Iran has been sanctioned for decades. It is one of the countries
best able to weather the economic downturn this oil shortage will
incur.
Fertiliser
The Gulf produces about 15 million metric tons of nitrogen
fertiliser annually. Qatar, Iran, and Saudi Arabia are the major
producers. Some can be shipped overland in Iran and Saudi Arabia's
case, but a significant proportion will be shut in. There is little
extra capacity in the global nitrogen fertiliser manufacturing
facilities. The northern hemisphere planting season is under way,
and competition for nitrogen supply will drive up prices, eventually
driving up food prices.
Infrastructure - water
"And if Iran wants everyone, all the Americans, to leave, all they
have to do is destroy the desalination plants and it'll be over.
Iranian Brigadier General Masoud Akhtari. March 2026
If Trump and Netanyahu escalate and attack Iranian desalination
plants, Iran will destroy Gulf desalination plants. Iranian has a
low dependency on desalination plants, Gulf countries have an
extremely high dependency. If Gulf plants are destroyed, almost the
entire population of the affected country will have leave overland
to Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, Turkey, then to Europe.
Infrastructure - oil
"If Iran want they can destroy all these oil and gas
facilities and it will take years to rebuild them."
Iranian Brigadier General Masoud Akhtari. March 2026
Israel struck an oil refinery in Tehran. Iran struck an Israeli oil
refinery. An eye for an eye. This is the equation.
Infrastructure - natural gas
"Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the
Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as
South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small section of the
whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this
particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape,
or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was
going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of
the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and
unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar's LNG Gas
facility.
NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this
extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran
unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar -
In which instance the United States of America, with or without
the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety
of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power
that Iran has never seen or witnessed before. I do not want to
authorize this level of violence and destruction because of the
long term implications that it will have on the future of Iran,
but if Qatar's LNG is again attacked, I will not hesitate to do
so.:
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
President DONALD J. TRUMP
Trump won't attack Iran's turbine pumping stations for its natural
gas because Iran will attack Gulf country gas turbines, ending the
pumping of natural gas for many years to come. Instead, he directed
his Israeli proxies to attack Iran's South Pars gas field (a field
Iran shares with Qatar). Most (70%) of the gas produced here is used
solely for Iran's domestic use. USrael struck 4 of the 24 production
phases. Resulting fires and damage stopped production in those areas
(100 million cubic meters/day, about 14% of Iran's total natural gas
production), but the bulk of production remains on line. Gas is used
to drive the turbines that generate electricity. The interruption to
gas supply is causing rationing of both electricity and gas. Natural
gas is also used in petrochemical production. Restricted gas supply
has removed 40% of normal production levels. Iraq relies on Iranian
natural gas to generatr around 30% of its electricity. Gas shipments
have been suspended.
"Trump has said, 'we can take apart Iran's electric
capacity within one hour, but we have not done it.' Well, if they
do that, the whole region will go dark in less than half an hour,
and darkness provides ample opportunity to hunt down US servicemen
running for safety,"
Ali Larijani Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council 12
March 2026
The strike was limited because Trump knew the Iranians would
retaliate in kind. The threat to "blow up the entirety of South Pars
(he means the infrastructure) is meaningless bluster, as Qatar's
terminal would be destroyed in retaliation. What's more, If all
Iran's domestic natural gas was destroyed by the US, Iran would
force Qatar to fully supply Iran with natural gas from North Pars.
In addition, Iran would undoubtedly destroy all Israeli natural gas
platforms and terminals, as well as those belonging to US companies
wherever they are found - within the limit of the range of Iranian
missiles.
On March 19 2026 Iran retaliated to the strike on South Pars with an
attack on Qatars Ras Laffan LNG infrastructure, mainly processing
plants and storage units. QatarEnergy says ~17% of Qatar's LNG
production capacity is damaged. Ras Laffan is responsible for about
20% of global LNG exports Repairs are estimated to take 3 years or
more for full restoration. A retaliatory strike on Israel's Haifa
Bay oil refinery and petrochemical complex allegedly caused minor
damage. The Americans refueled their strike planes in Saudi Arabia,
and as a result, Saudi Arabia's Yanbu SAMREF refinery was attacked,
but allegedly 'defeated' except for minor damage from a drone.
defeated. The Houthi then closed the Red Sea, so exports from that
coast are now locked in anyway.
Markets
The American weapons sales to Gulf countries will simply end.
There are also positive consequences:
1. A surge of interest in electric vehicles. This incentivises
governments to subsidise the import of electric vehicles, and to
supply charging stations. A natural knock-on effect will be a surge
of interest in wind and solar powers, as well as batteries for
baseload capacity.
2. A realisation that oil does not last forever. All three majors -
USA, Saudi Arabia and Russia will run out of surplus oil (exports)
before 2060. Unless decadal scale economic stagnation drops oil
demand dramatically.
3. Eurasian trade routes will strengthen. There are 15 countries
bordering Iran. Trade goes in all directs, with Iran as an important
hub. The projects connecting China to Iran and beyond will expand.
The Same for Russia. India may finally realise what side its bread
is buttered on and start connecting to and through Iran. Iran's
strategic depth will become even stronger.
Will the US, Israel and West capitulate before the
global economy collapses? Added 11 March 2026
"...They didn't think the war would become long-term.
They didn't think, for example, the price of oil would go up from
$80. It has already gone up to $110, you should expect $120 and
$150 in the coming days.
Well, what does this mean? It means the
entire global economy will collapse. If the global economy
collapses, will the world allow Trump to continue his
warmongering?
Or will the countries of the region allow him to continue his
warmongering?"
Iranian Brigadier General Masoud Akhtari 9 March 2026
I don't think anyone knows. After all, it is up to the US (mainly)
to agree to terms, return to its own country - and busy itself with
its domestic problems. But it is up to the will of one man. Donald
Trump.
The longer he delays, the higher the cost across all aspects of the
global economy - including his own.
Even once he signs, a certain amount of inflation will wash through.
If he delays too long - and he is the sort of person who has a habit
of always gambling with very high stakes and bad odds - the world
will plunge into a severe recession. This self inflicted calamity
will inevitably be made worse by domestic unrest due to high prices,
unemployment, and insecurity. Perhaps this is his plan to cancel
elections. After all, he is a cunning and devious person.
What's
Next for the Gulf? First edited 17 March 2026
"Those who count on such assistance should recall the
sad experience of all leaders of countries that had relied on the
United States.
As soon as the situation changed, Washington remorselessly left
those leaders to their own devices and launched a new stage of its
selfish policy."
Sergey Lavrov 5 November 2023
The Americans forced the Gulf States to sell oil using the dollar;
in return, the US would protect them. The US cannot protect them; in
contrast, its efforts are concentrated on protecting Israel. The
'petrodollar' bargain is broken. The Gulf states were already
accepting yuan in payment for oil shipped to China. The
'petrodollar' bargain broke down in relation to China, at least,
because the Chinese
CIPS payments facility allows states to by-pass the US
controlled SWIFT system of international payments.
But if the US can't protect the Gulf states, who can? Before this
question can be answered, the Gulf states will have to decide
whether or not they will continue to host US bases. If they do, Iran
will continue to destroy those bases. So far, Iran has deliberately
avoided hitting US troop concentrations (except for senior officers,
in reprisal for US murder of their senior military). They don't need
to hit troops. They have their hands around the throat of Gulf oil
flows, and nothing the US does will change that.
Seyed Abbas Araghchi
@araghchi
Hundreds of Iranian civilians have been killed in Israel-U.S.
bombings, including over 200 children.
Reports claim that some neighboring states which host U.S.
forces and permit attacks on Iran are also actively encouraging
this slaughter. Stances should be promptly clarified
3:27 AM · Mar 17, 2026
No defense or security pacts can be developed with a state that
permits the acts of state terrorism Mr.Araghchi describes. On the
other hand, Gulf States are duplicitous and often dishonorable, and
Iran knows this, and should expect it. Gulf states are probably
waiting to see if the US really does leave before they think about
what to do to guarantee their own security from USA, Israel, and a
future Iranian government.
Therefore, at the moment, the Iranians will have to sort the sheep
from the goat - those states where a degree of trust can be
developed, and those states where it can't. Unlike the Ukraine -
Russia conflict, Iran can has no long term strategic desire to trade
or diplomatically align with other Gulf states. It can retaliate and
exact compensation in the blink of an eye. Iran can easily use
access to the Straits of Hormuz to punish any Gulf country that
allows its territory to be used for an attack - of any kind.
Russia has long promoted the idea of a Gulf Security Council (made
up of Gulf States and Gulf States only) joining together to provide
mutual security. A united Gulf will protect its own trade and
civilisational peace.
This, a BRICS version of this, or a multilateral Gulf Security
Treaty, is now all but a certainty. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE,
Bahrain, etc, all jointly patrolling and protecting the Gulf under
Gulf developed regulations and conditions. These would probably be
similar to 'The (Montreux)
Convention regarding the Regime of the Straits' that governs
free peacetime access to the Black Sea, with Turkiye being te
controller.
"From our perspective, this is a waterway [Straits of
Hormuz] located next to Iran.
Naturally, we will not allow our enemies to use this waterway.
At the same time, a war is taking place around it. And naturally
many ships and countries may not want to use this route due to
insecurity. Some countries contact us to discuss safe passage
through the strait of Hormuz and we try to provide them with the
conditions for such passage.
In my view, we need to design new arrangements for the strait
of Hormuz and the way ships pass through it in the future after
the war so that peaceful navigation through this waterway
can be permanently maintained under clear regulations with
consideration for Iran's interests and the interests of the
region.
I believe that after the war, the first step should be
drafting a new protocol for the Strait of Hormuz. Naturally, this
should be done between the countries that lie on both sides of the
strait as they are the principal parties in this matter and it
should guarantee that safe passage through the strait takes
place under specific conditions. Conditions that ensure
peacefulness. We do not want to witness another war in the region
and we do not want to see the strait closed again.
There must be regulations and conditions established that
guarantee lasting peace in this region."
Foreign Minister Araghchi 18 March 2026
A Gulf defense force is a further step, albeit it would not be
essential. Foreign military vessels berthing and refuelling only, no
base, and restricted to humanitarian tasks. Gulf owned and operated
radars, satellites, AWAC, and comms, missile and drone
technology. Sourced from multiple countries. None of it American. A
Gulf Security Treaty with dispute settlement mechanisms. And Gulf
reciprocal defense mechanisms in the case of attack from outside.
Perhaps the cost of such standing cooperative military forces could
be paid for from revenue collected from ships traffic. Naturally,
aggressor states will still have the reparations tax on top.
"The Islamic Republic, without being in pursuit of
domination or colonization in the region, is fully prepared for
unity, and fostering warm, sincere, reciprocal relations
with all its neighbors."
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei 13 March 2026
"We are ready to resolve all problems with you. In order to
ensure peace in the region, we propose to create a security
structure in the Middle East, which will include Islamic
countries, in order to ensure peace, stability and security,"
Middle Eastern countries do not need the presence of
"outsiders," the president said.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, 20 March 2026
There is a limited window of time to convert to solar, nuclear,
clean gas, wind and geothermal economies in the Gulf. Oil and gas
are a diminishing and terminal resource.
The Gulf must protect its own future. No one can afford to have
solar projects, wind, projects, cables and sophisticated battery
storage infrastructure damaged or destroyed.
The security shift is a renewable energy shift which in the Gulf
region is steadily embedding into daily life. Oil reservoirs are
protected from war by geological depth under the ground. Renewable
energy is vulnerable. This reality insures compliance with
International law and peaceful relations between states. The
greatest danger to peace and security in the Gulf is Israel and the
United States.
A big power - Russia and China - Eurasian security umbrella will be
needed.
The Convention regarding the regime of the Hormuz
Straits Added 19 March 2026
"Did you know that Denmark earns significant revenue
from the Kattegat Strait?
Of course, unlike Turkey, which officially receives tolls from the
Bosphorus Strait, Denmark forces most passing ships to purchase
pilotage services.
In other words, ships in international waters are compelled to
comply with the laws of Denmark and Turkey"
Foad Izadi, Associate Professor, Faculty of World Studies,
University of Tehran, 21 March 2026
"Did you know that Turkey receives $5.83 in transit_fees for every
ton of goods passing through the Bosphorus Strait?
This means there is legal precedent for collecting tolls from the
#Strait_of_Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz should remain closed until the issue of
transit tolls through the strait and war compensation is settled."
Foad Izadi, Associate Professor, Faculty of World Studies,
University of Tehran, 19 March 2026
It seems to me there will be a meeting with Gulf countries to
develop and sign a Treaty on how the Persian Gulf's Hormuz Strait
should be regulated. Once everything is agreed a formal written
protocol that records and authenticates the proceedings, documents,
agreements, and specific understandings will be issued. As soon as
the respective contracting governments deposit the ratification with
the UN, the Treaty will come into force.
If the will is there, this can be done quite quickly. If it isn't,
Iran will impose its own rules, which will no doubt coincide with
the bulk of the unconsummated text.
Good news: Iran is not a member of the United Nations
Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Better news: The United States and Israel are also not members of
the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
This means Iran has a free hand in designing a new legal order,
based on Iran's right to collect transit_fees from the Strait of
Hormuz.
This means the practical end of 47 years of illegal_sanctions
against Iran.
Foad Izadi, Associate Professor, Faculty of World Studies,
University of Tehran, 21 March 2026
If Iran was a party to the law of the Sea, it would have to give
peaceful transit. But it isn't.
Hormuz access could be modeled on the 1936 Montreaux Treaty that
regulates access to the Black Sea via Turkiye's Strait of
Dardanelle. (The Treaty wording is on page 215 of the pdf of this
UN treaties document.)
Notably, the 'contracting parties' should only be those countries
who have a shoreline on the waterway. Other countries could ratify
such a treaty, accepting its principles, or not. It doesn't really
matter. The basic principles are that peaceful countries should be
able to freely navigate the straits, subject only to taxes for
transit. In 1936, this was expressed as:
"In time of peace, merchant vessels shall enjoy complete
freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits, by day and by
night, under any flag and with any kind of cargo, without any
formalities..."
Accepting that Iran (Persia) controls the entrance to the Persian
Gulf, then when Iran is not party to some other countries war that
is going on, merchant vessels can pass through; but not military
vessels. In 1936 this was expressed as:
"In time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, merchant
vessels, under any flag or with any kind of cargo, shall enjoy
freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits"
But when Iran is being attacked, countries that are not at war with
Iran, and which are not helping the enemy IN ANY WAY can enter and
leave the strait under Iran's direction. The 1936 wording is:
"In time of war, Turkey being belligerent, merchant
vessels not belonging to a country at war with Turkey shall enjoy
freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits on condition that
they do not in any way assist the enemy.
Such vessels shall enter the Straits by day and their transit
shall be effected by the route which shall in each case be
indicated by the Turkish authorities."
You will immediately notice that Iran is implementing these
principles right now.
Section 2 of the Treaty of Montreaux covers military vessels in
times of peace and times of war. Naval bunkering vessels are allowed
limited passage, by arrangement.
In times of peace "light surface vessels, minor war vessels and
auxiliary vessels, whether belonging to Black Sea or non-Black Sea
Powers, and whatever their flag, shall enjoy freedom of transit
through the Straits". This would have to be much more strictly
limited in today's world, I would guess.
Under the 1936 treaty, surface ships and submarines of littoral
states can pass through, but submarines must pass through surfaced.
Foreign ships visiting ports of littoral states are limited in size
and in number. In addition, the aggregate tonnage of ships visiting
various littoral countries has a hard cap.
Using the 1936 concept, in time of war between nations where Iran is
not involved, warships could transit the Strait, subject to previous
conditions, but not the warships of those in conflict with each
other. The only exception would be if a warship is moving to assist
a littoral country which is being illegally attacked.
In a similar way, if Iran feels under imminent danger of attack, or
is at war, Iran has the right to close the Strait to warships.
Today, this has rightly been extended to ships transporting oil,
gas, fertiliser and anything else that may aid the aggressor or
those assisting the aggressor. As the Gulf countries are assisting
the US-Israeli aggressors, then the Gulf is closed to them. Other
ships can pass through, as long as they coordinate with Iran's navy,
and pay the tax. The US dollar as a reserve currency allows the US
to fund its war on Iran by creating money out of thin air.
Therefore, Iran insists that countries use another currency, the
yuan.
This is a rough outline of the principle of the 1936 Treaty. A
Hormuz Treaty would probably broadly follow these principles.It
would also be lodged with the United Nations, and therefore become
part of International law. The US and Israel have no respect for
international law, but the rest of the world does. Let them go their
own way.
Every diplomatic hint I have seen - including Trump's ham-handed
comments - point to this being discussed behind the scenes. Iran is
already implementing it.
There were only 10 signatories to the Montreaux Convention, and a
similar convention today would similarly be restricted to coastal
countries of the Gulf. The contracting parties meet at set intervals
under the Montreaux Convention, and report to the UN. A Gulf
convention would do the same. The US is not a signatory of the
Montreaux convention as it has no shoreline in the Gulf.
Today, you can bet it is blocking a behind-the-scenes similar legal
convention for Hormuz in an attempt to be a contracting party and
founding signatory. It probably won't succeed. Even if it did, its
signature on documents is literally worthless.
But Trump is playing against the clock. He is laying the ground work
for leaving Israel to sit in their own mess while he agrees to a
'deal'. But he had better hurry.
Time
log of the de facto Hormuz Treaty added 20 March
2026
?18 March 2026 - Iran designated an inshore passage sealane (between
the shore and Iran's Larak Island) for vessels moving through the
Gulf, in order for the Iranian Port Authority and IRGC Navy to
properly validate ships passing through.
19 March 2026
Around 7 million barrels a day of global oil supply are off the
global markets. Insurers won't send ships, oil prices are bid up due
to uncertain supply.
The market Japanese Prime Minister visits Trump and says
"I also brought specific proposals to calm down the global energy
market." This language echos the conclusion from the 2009
international scenario exercise war-gaming the closure of the
Straits of Malacca (see Col. Larry Wilkerson interview 21 March 2026). The
proposals are likely to be expansion of Japans already very large
oil storage capacity, and a sea link from the Alaska Valdez storage
facility to Japan (a 7 - 10 day journey). The Valdez 'tank farm' has
a capacity of about 6 million barrels. Oil on-sold to Japan will be
paid in dollars. Perhaps petrobonds will also be sold, to
offset loss of the Japan 'carry trade'. Petrobonds are often
used to re-finance existing debt, such as US debt.
A former US official of the Directorate of National intelligence and
former CIA operative says Trumps task is to first stop Israel's
attacks on other countries and if they won't, walk away and say
"you're on your own". After that, "make sure the petrodollar is
being used". USA will have to "aggressively"
pursue its economic interests. Presumably this means strong-arming
the Saudis to pay in dollars again, and probably interdicting any
ships that leave the Gulf whith oil paid for in yuan. Finally new
diplomats will be needed. No doubt Mr. Kent will be available.
20 March 2026 - as noted above, Iran has already implemented
elements of the 'Hormuz Treaty'. Chinese and Russian ships pass
through freely. As these are friendly ships, I imagine that they pay
minimal tax at this moment. The Pakistani Aframax oil tanker Karachi
allegedly paid $US2 million to transit the Strait with 109,000
tonnes of oil bound for Karachi. This appears to be a tax rate of
$20 a tonne, or very roughly 17.25 yuan (USD2.50) a barrel for a
friendly country. Turkiye
charges $5.07 per tonne of cargo as the fee for the passage of ships
through the Bosphorus and Dardanelle straits. The fee is indexed to
the price of gold.
Does Iran index its transit fee to the price of gold? The concept is
there.
Indian ships were allowed to leave after India released the
illegally detained Iranian LNG ships. The Indians, who have embraced
the Israeli aggressor, will probably have to pay an 'unfriendly'
rate, but at least will be allowed transit.
Laurie
Meadows articles on Security