Security Shift - The 2026 America - Israel Attack On Iran


by Laurie Meadows
10 March 2026 Last edited 21 March 2026


"The war will end only when Iran’s adversaries understand they no longer have the right to violate Iranian territory and agree to pay compensation for the damages caused,”
Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, 7 March 2026



The US, Israel and the Europeans have suffered a strategic defeat   
The US Objectives have only been partly met  
Iran's missile defense and deterrent
Destroy Electricity Generation
How long will the conflict last?
Boots on the ground 
Trump's Retreat
The issue of revenge
Iran uses the wests hybrid war technique 
Will the US, Israel and West capitulate before the global economy collapses 
Iran an ambiguous nuclear weapons state 
Iran Control of the Straits of Hormuz
The Convention regarding the regime of the Hormuz Straits
Time log of the de facto Hormuz Treaty
Iran's Terms  
Mediation
US and Israel are guilty of starting an unprovoked war of choice
Compensation
Consequences of US and Israeli perfidy  
What's Next for the Gulf? 


As I wrote in 2023:

"On the 5th of December 2023 The Russian Federation and Iran signed the "Declaration by the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran on the Ways and Means to Counter, Mitigate and Redress the Adverse Impacts of Unilateral Coercive Measures"...Guideline 6 says "In the event of economic or financial loss incurred as a result of the adoption of unilateral coercive measures, the State that has inflicted such loss on an affected State, individuals and legal entities by its actions or extraterritorial application of its national laws, shall be primarily held liable for compensation and damages."

This is unequivocal. The west will be held liable for damages and compensation. As I predicted here on the 11th of November (above), Russia "is more likely to invoke the international law of State responsibility which requires a state doing a wrong act to make full reparations for a 'wrong act', which comprises any or all of restitution, reparations, and compensation for damage done, both material and moral."

This history made it easy to predict, as I did on the 3rd of March 2026, that Iran will demand reparations for the 28 February unprovoked aggression these two countries launched (without warning) on February 28 2026. The attack was launched in the middle of a truce and peace negotiations. This is a war crime, the crime of perfidy.

"War is essentially an evil thing. Its consequences are not confined to the belligerent States alone, but affect the whole world. To initiate a war of aggression, therefore, is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole."
International Military Tribunal, Nuremburg, The Trial of German Major War Criminals, Judgment: 30th September, 1946 - 1st October, 1946, at "Conspiracy and Aggressive War," p.13.

The moral damage is huge. A perfidious sneak attack, the murder of the head of state, the head of state's daughter-in-law, son and grandchild, the deliberate murder of school children (including a repeat strike, this time with a thermobaric weapon to burn any injured survivors to death in the most horrific manner possible).

America and Israel initiated a war of aggression - the supreme international crime. On this count alone, the compensation due is immense.

"Iran’s Ministry of Health announced that more than 15,000 citizens have been injured since the start of the US-Israeli aggression on Iran.

According to the ministry, 12,495 people have already been treated and discharged from hospitals, while 670 surgical operations have been successfully performed. Currently, 1,682 injured individuals remain hospitalized, receiving ongoing medical care.

The ministry noted that the healthcare workforce has also been affected, with 12 medical staff members wounded and 72 others sustaining injuries while performing their duties.

Additionally, the war has caused significant damage to healthcare infrastructure, including 87 health units, 24 treatment centers, 21 emergency bases, and 18 ambulances, further straining the country’s medical response capabilities.

Earlier today, Iran’s Emergency Organization announced that the number of victims since the start of the US-Israeli aggression against the country has risen to 1,348 martyrs...civilian casualties continuing to rise"
?9 March 2026

Add in the material damage - the homes destroyed, the hospitals damaged, the commercial buildings damaged, the military facilities, the oil refinery, the water desalination plant, the aircraft, the ships, the medical supply sterilisation units, the ambulances destroyed, the police stations, the pharmaceuticals manufacturing facilities - the list goes on and on. Destroyed or damaged.The aggressors must pay to re-build, restore and repair everything they damaged.

Add in the human losses. The civilians, the government personnel from police through medical staff, the local government officials, and, of course university staff. Killed or wounded. That's without accounting for military commanders, soldiers, airmen and sailors killed or wounded. The attack on the oil refinery spread toxic fumes over Tehran. There will be damaged lungs and increases in cancers as a result. Each and every injured person must be paid compensation. And for the injured, the permanently maimed, that payment must compensate the family dependents for the entire course of a natural life.

Seyed Abbas Araghchi
@araghchi

Israel's bombings of fuel depots in Tehran violate international law and constitute ecocide.
Residents face long-term damage to their health and well-being. Contamination of soil and groundwater could have generational impacts.

Israel must be punished for its war crimes.
2:33 PM · Mar 16, 2026

Walter
@googlexrp

Burning petroleum releases sulfur and nitrogen oxides that mix with rain to form sulfuric and nitric acid, essentially turning rainfall toxic.

When Saddam burned Kuwaiti oil wells in 1991, the fallout contributed to what became known as Gulf War Syndrome, with veterans developing chronic illness and cancer decades later.

The difference now: this isn’t a desert battlefield, it’s a city of 10 million people, most of which women and children.

2:37 PM · Mar 16, 2026

Normally, both the USA and Israel would refuse to pay, or offer token payments - which they will later renege on. Only the defeated are forced to pay compensation. The question then is 'has America in effect suffered a strategic defeat'?


The US, Israel and the Europeans have suffered a strategic defeat


The US and Europe initiated a hybrid war on the Russian Federation, using their Ukrainian proxy as their 'boots on the ground'. So-called 'sanctions' made up the other part of the hybrid war. The intention in Russia's case was to inflict what Biden called "a strategic defeat" on Russia. While the US could impose a sea blockade on Venezuela, they could not blockade Russia.

In Iran's case, the west hoped to provoke domestic opposition to the government through the classic techniques the US has always used to overthrow governments around the world. Paying small groups of dissidents to riot, massive interference in government via US funded propaganda channels, and, above all brutal 'sanctions'. The intention was to immiserate the population. But nothing worked. So the 28 February surprise attack was intended to murder as many leaders of civil society and the military as possible. That, too didn't work.

At the time of first writing, 2130hrs 10 March 2026 (NZDT) Iran continues to defend itself by destroying US bases in the region and by significantly de-militarising Israel. And, while the US has been able to bomb Iran with 500lb glide bombs, Iran has used relatively light missiles and very light drones to destroy radars and selected military equipment. The missile campaign is likely to increase to match the US use of heavy bombs. The Iranian missiles have free access to Israeli airspace. The Iranian missiles have radar jammers and use 'chaff' to provide false targets to the Israeli intercept missiles. The US and Israeli missile defense batteries are both overwhelmed and of very low effectiveness anyway in the face of the Iranian countermeasures.

Once Iran moves to heavy missiles the cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa are able to be destroyed (literally). Large numbers in a small space create a radius of overlapping overpressure that causes damage not dissimilar to a small nuclear bomb. Without the radioactive fallout, and probably without the firestorm. And without the long term increase in cancers.

The only response from Israel or the US would be a strike on Iran with nuclear weapons. The laws of war require proportionality, and the effect of an atomic bomb would be disproportionate. The Americans and Israelis have exempted themselves from International law, and the laws of war in particular. They consider that themselves 'chosen', superior to everyone else. But even ethnosupremacists cannot take the risk that Iran will not assemble a nuclear weapon deep underground in some part of that vast country and respond to Israel's arrogant perfidy with nuclear obliteration.


The US Objectives have only been partly met


It is clear that Trump is slowly preparing the public mind for a declaration of "success".

Trump will then declare he has ended the war and attained his objectives, which are:
1. Destroyed the navy
2. Destroyed Irans missile capability
3. Ended Irans work towards a nuclear weapon
4. Forcibly replace the elected Iranian government in order to seize control of Iranian oil and gas. As the US did in 1953 (assisted by the UK).

1. Navy
Yes, Trump has destroyed Iran's larger naval vessels. But large ships are worthless for a defensive military with limited air defenses and no real airforce. They are a sitting duck for missiles. US naval ships there are also useless for exactly the the same reason.

Trump knows that Iran may already be able to hit a US carrier in the Mediterranean. Iran has chosen not to do so - yet.

But Iran has fast small missile carrying boats that are hard to hit. And small submarines. And mine-laying capacity. And undersea drones. And small surface drone. And bases to hide them in. Many can be pulled out of the water and hidden until needed.

There is no doubt that the problem of finding and targeting large naval vessels has been solved by linked autonomous, solar re-charging, loitering sea drones. These are in constant communication with the command center by satellite. It is an open question as whether or not Iran already has such drones. MIlitary-political analyst Patricia Marins summarised the strategic shift on January 11 2026:

"Solid-State Batteries: Wolfpacks of Small UUVs Will Dominate the Seas

UUVs are currently the most dangerous threat to submarines and military surface ships. Their development is accelerating rapidly, and I would argue that the smallest ones are the most dangerous.

This week, the first solid-state battery ready for mass production was announced, with an energy density of 400 Wh/kg. By 2028, several companies are promising to reach 600 Wh/kg, roughly 3–4 times the density of today’s lithium-ion batteries.

This will completely transform naval warfare

It not only renders conventional diesel-electric submarines obsolete but also creates an entirely new category of UUVs: small, mini, and extremely fast.

I’m talking about UUVs in the 250–350 kg weight, capable of sprint speeds of 45–50 knots.

They would carry a compact 50 kg warhead using modern explosives, including CL-20-based mixtures, inside a fuselage largely composed of solid-state battery cells, supplemented by a small 2.5 kVA gasoline generator with a snorkel for recharging.

These UUVs could be air-dropped, ships, submarines, from aircraft or larger drones, and operate in Wolfpack, sprinting up to 35 km to engage targets.

If the target pulls out of range, the onboard AI calculates that interception is no longer feasible and switches to recharge mode, surfacing discreetly, running the generator, and continuing to track the target via periscope or mast-mounted sensors. It analyzes surface images, estimates target course and speed, and calculates the exact energy needed for a new high-speed intercept, also getting data from satellites or drones, composing a versatile kill web.

A true high-tech wolfpack: persistent, autonomous, and capable of engaging both surface ships and submerged submarines (by forcing them to surface or detecting them when they snorkel).

Warhead design is evolving toward combined shaped charge + blast configurations: an initial shaped charge penetrates the outer hull or Kevlar spall liners (creating a breach and injecting energy), followed immediately by the main high-explosive blast that causes flooding, shock damage to equipment, and internal compartment failure.

This mirrors the mechanism of modern lightweight torpedoes.

A UUV carrying just 50 kg of advanced explosive in such a warhead would be capable of breaching the pressure hull of a Virginia-class submarine or the hull of an Arleigh Burke-class or Type 055 destroyers, causing serious flooding and likely achieving at least a mission kill. In successive impacts from a wolfpack, the damage would be catastrophic, comparable to that inflicted by an Mk 54 or MU90 torpedo.

Another key development is the refinement of UUV AI to prioritize initial strikes against propulsion systems (shafts, propellers, reduction gears, or waterjets), maximizing the chance of immobilizing the target early.

These are fully autonomous units that can loiter for weeks, hunting targets, making independent decisions, and even receiving software updates while recharging on the surface.

They fit into a broader ecosystem of UUVs,  primarily propeller-driven, torpedo-shaped vehicles weighing 250–350 kg with warheads of 50–100 kg,  but the range of designs and capabilities is expanding fast.

Their cost is orders of magnitude lower than any manned ship or submarine, and effective countermeasures do not yet exist. We are talking about a technology that could put billions of dollars in naval investments at risk.

The trend is clear: UUVs will continue to get cheaper, faster, longer-ranging, and smarter, while traditional platforms (surface ships and submarines) only become more expensive and vulnerable.

These wolfpacks will be supported and coordinated by drones, satellites, and motherships.

Just as drones have reshaped land warfare, UUV swarms are doing the same at sea."
Patricia Marins, Military-Geopolitical analys, X platform 11 January 2026

2. Missiles First edited 13 March 2026
"What I'm trying to do here is give you a case of why things are going to go to hell in a handbasket as this war goes on—with regard to attacks against US bases in the Persian Gulf from drones as well as ballistic missiles, but also damage to Israel itself from ballistic missiles. This is going to go downhill big, and we're only beginning to see how bad it's going to get."

(Professor Postol goes on to describe Irans ability to use electronic jamming and metallic 'chaff' to defeat US & Israeli defense missiles)

"So all these missile defenses - whether strategic or tactical- are worthless.

All this money spent and all these false claims that we can protect the public from ballistic missiles are now being shown to be false... I've been talking about this for 35 years.

I showed to the International Institute for Strategic Studies—people said, "What can we do about it?" I was in London 35 years ago; people came to me and said, "What can we do about it, Dr. Postol?" And I said, "I'm telling you because I'm trying to alert you to the fact that you can be defeated, and there are no countermeasures to these." I'm trying to warn you that you cannot deal with these things when the adversary chooses to react.

[they replied] "Oh, you're a negative person."  Well, I'm just a scholar trying to inform you of what's technically doable on both sides..."
Ted Postol, Physicist, MIT Professor and Pentagon advisor (Retired) 9 March 2026

Irans regional-deterrent missile capability is far from destroyed, hidden underground. Advances in missile tech continue. Accurate and unstoppable. Equipped with highly effective chaff and radar jamming. Soon with ICBM capability. And, as Professor Postol points out there are no countermeasures.

Israeli and American radars have been destroyed. Warning of incoming missiles has been reduced to minutes. The Thaad and Patriot interceptors are demonstrably ineffective. Even cheap drones powered by 'lawnmower engines' - but linked to, and guided by irdium satellite feeds - are flying through Israeli and Gulf country airspace without being shot down.

The US and Israel are exhausting both their attack and defense missiles. They are turning to 'iron bombs' fitted with glide kits and standoff aircraft launched missiles, because, for the most part, they cannot risk entering Iranian airspace.

The pace of air sorties is wearing down men and equipment. Logistic bases they rely on are now much further away.

"In that last interview I did on the fifth day, I said, we have passed the peak and are heading downhill. Meaning because we hit the radar and the infrastructure.

Today, Trump and Netanyahu are trapped in a slaughterhouse in the Persian Gulf.

Look, the big mistake they made was that they came and designed a short-term war, but they didn't realize this might turn into a long-term one.
Even the greatest international powers, if they initially plan for a short-term war and halfway through it becomes a long-term war, no matter how much power they have, they will be defeated. Why?

Because short-term wars have a specific design. They require limited logistics and limited preparations. A long-term war requires abundant logistics, extensive planning, and they have to anticipate many consequences.

They thought the Islamic Republic would be finished in 48 hours. First, they brought one aircraft carrier, then recently they said, for precaution, let's take another ship too.
But now they are saying, we must bring whatever ships we have from anywhere in the world so maybe we can handle this....

They came for 48 hours, now if they want to stay long-term, from the fatigue of the forces to the shortage of ammunition, they will be burdened with other problems.
Iranian Brigadier General Masoud Akhtari 9 March 2026

Iran's missile defenses are its strategic weapons. They won't give them up, and they will continue refining them and extending their range.

"Vast majority of the British People do not want any part in the Israel-U.S. war of choice on Iran.
Ignoring his own People, Mr. Starmer is putting British lives in danger by allowing UK bases to be used for aggression against Iran. Iran will exercise its right to self-defense."
Seyed Abbas Araghchi 21 March 2026


"Iran reveals new missiles and targets Diego Garcia. Far from showing a reduction in power, the Iranian arsenal continues to expand.
The WSJ has confirmed that hours ago, following the UK’s approval for the US to use its bases in the conflict, Iran launched two ballistic missiles."
Patricia Marins 21 March 2026

Missiles will be able to push American carriers further and further away, forcing them to rely aerial re-fueling, which creates vulnerability to SAM anti-aircaft missiles. A third stage added to the Khorramshahr-4 will enable it to reach almost anywhere in Europe.

At the moment the Khorramshahr-4's range of around of over 2,000 km can hit NATO Aegis ashore batteries in Romania, the Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base NATO operational hub on the Black Sea, Souda Bay naval and airbase facility in Greece, and Bezmer airbase in Bulgaria.
 
"What the Iranian people want is the continuation of an effective defense that makes the enemy regret...

Studies have been conducted regarding opening other fronts where the enemy has minimal experience and where it would be highly vulnerable. Should the war continue, activation of such fronts will be carried out based on certain interests."
Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei 12 March 2026

These are obvious targets. Less obvious is the South Stream leg of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) bringing decompressed natural gas to Germany, Italy and Austria. If the pipelines (or pumps) in Italy are blown up, it will serve the interests of Russia as the Russia-Turkiye TurkStream pipeline would likely be expanded. These large expensive gas-turbine compressors would take at least months, and probably years, to replace.

There are large LNG decompression facilities in the Mediterranean, but a strike on these would be catastrophic, so they won't be touched. Iranians are not ethnosupremacists, unlike some western countries.

With further work, an Iranian 'Khorramshahr-5' would put the Straits of Gibraltar in range, which means that Iran would have finally 'collected the set'.

This is one of the 2 major reasons why this article is titled 'Security Shift'.


3. Nuclear Weapon


""I can remind your audience about the capabilities of Iran as a nuclear weapon state.

It is not a non-nuclear weapon state. It is not a nuclear weapon state that has built a nuclear weapon, at least as far as we know. But it is a threshold state that could build a nuclear weapon on very short notice.

And it would not be possible to stop them from building a nuclear weapon - even if you were using nuclear weapons on Iran while they were constructing it.

They have enough enriched uranium hexafluoride to construct 10 atomic bombs, which would be far more than enough to finish off Israel as a state... 10 nuclear weapons would be far more than needed to end Israel as a state.

There is no way to stop Iran.

Basically, what you need to do could be easily housed in a tunnel that's not necessarily especially large. You could do the final enrichment to get weapons-grade uranium and build a nuclear weapon that does not need to be tested. It's important to understand this is a uranium weapon, and it would not need to be tested—it is well within the reach of Iran to build these nuclear weapons. So we need to start thinking about the possibility we could see nuclear weapons used.

Now, I do not think Iran will use nuclear weapons against Israel first, but as this war goes on, Israel's situation is going to continue to deteriorate. ..."
Ted Postol, Physicist, MIT Professor and Pentagon advisor (Retired) 9 March 2026

Iran is now an ambiguous nuclear weapons state. The US murdered the Supreme Leader who prohibited Iran from having a nuclear weapon. The new Supreme Leaders attitude is not yet known. Iran slowly and progressively enriched uranium to just below weapons grade in an attempt in response to the west's craven failure to honour its side of the agreement to lift sanctions in return to stringent inspections of Iran's peaceful-purpose nuclear enrichment program.

Trump knew the 60% level put them 2 weeks from a a capacity to build 10 nuclear bombs. He knew at least before June 4 2025, when Tulsi Gabbard visited Hiroshima (ostensibly privately) when visiting a US military facility nearby. She knew Iran was a latent nuclear state. She was criticised for not mentioning the fact that America is the country that committed that crime. She omitted naming any country because she was revealing to those with ears to hear that the USA was aware Iran was at least a latent nuclear state.

She knew the only course was concessions, removing the sanctions in return for verification. In the discussions immediately before the perfidious 28 February sneak attack on Iran, Iran agreed to down-blend the enriched uranium under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision, which US observers for verification. Iran even agreed to discussion on bringing its missiles into the 500 kilometer maximum range under the Intermediate range missile agreement that Trump himself destroyed. The US got everything it claimed wanted. On a platter. The Omani mediators confirmed it. Presumably, the Iranians got sanctions relief.

Trump had a slam dunk solution.

It is clear to me, at least, that Gabbard was promoting exactly this diplomatic solution. Yet Trump ignored her advice and chose violence.

Why? No one knows. Maybe because he sent incompetent people (his son-in-law, and a real estate friend) to a technical discussion. One whose details they misunderstood, and whose reports back to the President were simply false and misleading.

"Seyed Abbas Araghchi
@araghchi

Factual knowledge matters.

Case 1: Iran's proposal to ensure NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS was dismissed because U.S. counterparts didn't grasp the technical details."
13 March 2026

Trump forced Iran into now having to choose whether or not to become a declared nuclear weapons power.

Notably, nuclear powers are immune from attack from the USA.


4. Overthrow the Iranian Government First edited 11 March 2026. Last edited 12 March 2026

"Iran is much more confident now about itself. And  great harm has been done to its people by adversaries. And Iran sees its strength. The people see their strength. The people on the streets recognize their strength. And this is a reality that the Americans are going to have to deal with from now on."
Professor Seyed Marandi 10 March 2026

This is barely worth discussion. Iran is a thousands of years old civilisation, with a strong tradition of resistance to wrong doing and injustice. This is not 1953. People hold strong opinions, but they do not abandon their country when attacked by barbarians from outside.

"...the bottom line here is the bombs change the political game inside of the target. It infuses nationalism inside the target because they may not like their leader, but do they really want to be run by Donald Trump out of the Oval Office? And ...he picks the leader as he's clearly saying he wants to do ? And he'll kill his way there if necessary? This is not going to work.

And what you're seeing is it's a self-defeating strategy. It's not just a strategy hasn't been tried enough...I've debated these folks for decades here. Since 91,92 I've been debating them and all. Done it in front of the German Air Force, Norwegian Air Force, so all these excuses why it doesn't work, we've tried them all...And the reason is ...that bombs produce game-changing nationalism inside of the society that fuses the society and the regime closer together.

...it means the strategy itself is self-contradictory. It's self-defeating. ...my goodness gracious, when you have a distribution of 100% over a hundred years and you're dealing with dozens and dozens of cases by different country, different actors, different presidents, dot dot dot, you got to start to understand the problem is probably with the strategy."
Dr. Robert Pape, Professor of political science at the University of Chicago, specializing in security affairs. 11 March 2026 "

Bombing doesn't work. In Iran's case it not only consolidates the population, it adds massively to the bill that the perpetrators of the bombing will have to pay. Bearing in mind the war is an unprovoked war of aggression, the exemplary damages alone will be huge (let alone punitive damages, and actual damages).

Trump, observing the Russian campaign of destroying Ukrainian power facilities, threatens Iran with such a strike, claiming it will take 25 years to recreate them.

First, the Russian strikes are in response to Ukrainian terrorist attacks on its own infrastructure and civilian population. Similarly, if USA struck Iranian electric power plants, Iran would respond in a similar manner. But as it can't (yet) reach USA, they will attack Israeli power plants. Keep in mind 60-80% of Israeli drinking water comes from 6 desalination plants. And massive industrial gas turbines account for 70% to 75% of the country's total electricity generation. They would take years to replace.

Destroy Electricity Generation Edited 14 March 2026
Second while Trump says he could destroy Iran's electricity generation capacity, 85% comes from natural gas generators. These are highly advanced Iranian heavy duty turbines. In the best case it would take 12 months to replace one. More realistically, 2 years per turbine.

The Bushehr gas-powered electricity powerplant capacity is 1,130 Megawatts, Yazd1,004, Asaluyeh 1,322, South pars 1,114, and Kish Island 230 Megawatts. If Trump hits them it would take about 22 years to replace them all, at best. And the global order books for class F heavy turbines are all full. Replacements simply aren't available.

On the declared Iranian principle of 'security for all or insecurity for all' Iran will force Saudi Arabia and UAE to expeditiously build and re-route the Saudi-Greek interconnector and the UAE-backed Egypt-Italy Interconnector to replace the lost power. The Gulf will not be opened to adversaries until the temporary power supply is in place and compensation (in gold) is pre-paid to restore Iran's highly advanced 'type F' heavy turbine manufacturing plant.

If Chinese contractors are involved, it might be possible to connect Iran to Saudi excess power within 2 years. That's how long Iran's adversaries will be without Gulf oil and natural gas. The nett result will be windfall profits for Saudi and Russian oil and gas supplies. It will then be a race against time to re-supply Iran with electricity and open the Gulf before the western globe falls into a severe economic recession and high inflation (cutting oil demand and dropping oil prices).

So Trump can destroy power plants and cause immense misery to Iranian people. But he can't magically repair and restore the turbines he wrecks. The Iranians will fully understand that. And Trump knows it as well.

By destroying Iranian infrastructure he is also destroying Israeli infrastructure, as night follows day.

"Iran's national infrastructure is under attack. This time, a branch of my country's oldest bank was bombed while full of employees. They were laboring to ensure Iranians have food on the table ahead of our New Year.

Our Powerful Armed Forces will exact retribution for this crime"
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi 12 March 2026

"the enemy has opened the door for us to target economic centers and banks affiliated with the US and Israel in the region.”
 Lieutenant Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaqari 12 March 2026

On the 12th of March the US destroyed an Iranian bank. Iran promised to strike US banks throughout the Gulf. Once again, any attack on Iranian infrastructure will be met by a mirror resonse on US and Israeli infrastructure.

"Today, our verdict is the rule of 'an eye for an eye', straightforward, without exception… If they start a war on infrastructure, we will undoubtedly target theirs."

“The enemy should know that whatever they do, it will undoubtedly face a proportional and immediate response; no act of aggression will go unanswered"
Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament 

The US threatened Iranian commercial ports. Iran promised to destroy Israeli and Gulf ports.

"On Wednesday, the spokesman of Iran’s Armed Forces warned that all ports and economic centers in Persian Gulf littoral states will be considered legitimate targets for Iran if the United States attacks Iranian ports as part of the ongoing joint aggression with Israel against the country.

“If the US follows through with its threat against Iran’s ports, there will definitely be no port, economic center, or location in the Persian Gulf that could remain beyond our reach, and they will be struck as legitimate targets,” Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi said."
PressTV News 12 March 2026 

Boots on the ground added 17 march 2026

Seyed Abbas Araghchi
@araghchi
When the U.S. Secretary of War declares “no quarter”, he doesn't project strength. He conveys moral bankruptcy and ignorance about law of armed conflict.
We advise him to review the Hague Convention and Rome Statute of the ICC, unless he aspires to join Netanyahu as war criminal.
8:35 AM · Mar 17, 2026

Several highly respected military commentators such as Scott Ritter, Andrei Martyanov, and Douglas macGregor  have explained the impossibility of a US land force overthrowing the Iranian people's government. Peter Brian Hegseth, the crazed crusader from the US Defense Department has incited US troops to commit war crimes, which American domestic law prohibits them from obeying. Iran calmly says it is waiting for the American troops to arrive. They will be all killed or captured. And then Iran will issue an arrest warrant for Peter Brian Hegseth for war crimes.

Trump's Retreat

The Kharg Island misdirection
On March 14 the US destroyed all the military installations protecting the Kharg Island oil terminal handling almost all Iran's oil exports. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's oil terminal infrastructure unless Iran opened the Straits of Hormuz. Perhaps he calculates the Iranians won't carry out their threat to destroy Gulf country oil infrastructure in reprisal. If so, he might think if he airdrops troops onto the Island the Iranians won't fire on them because Iranian fire would destroy their Iran's own infrastructure. He is wrong. Iran would not hesitate to fire on US military on the island. Iran can remain calm in the face of hitting its own infrastructure because Gulf states will then have to pay Iran the lost export income.  They will have to pay until such until such time as the oil terminal is repaired (and why would Iran hurry?). There is another possibility, albeit a little farfetched.

Iran won't talk to USA, for obvious reasons. In the meantime, the Gulf countries are extremely worried. (Amongst many other things, the Umrah religous pilgrimage to Mecca season is only 7 months away, and requires a huge logistic effort to accommodate flights, food, hotels etc for Muslim pilgrims visiting from all over the world)  But as food supplies shorten, tourism ends, belts tighten, so the discontent of the populations of these feudal family-owned governments increases.

Donald J. Trump
@realDonald Trump
The United States of America has beaten and completely decimated Iran, both Militarily, Economically, and in every other way, but the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage, and we will help - A LOT!

The U.S. will also coordinate with those Countries so that everything goes quickly, smoothly, and well.

This should have always been a team effort, and now it will be - It will bring the World together toward Harmony, Security, and Everlasting Peace!
President DONALD J. TRUMP
Mar 14, 2026, 7:58 PM

Perhaps, behind the scenes, via the Omanis, the Gulf states, plus EU countries, Japan, Korea - whoever has some money - have agreed to Iran's reparations demand. After all, the alternative is global depression. Reparations will also have to be paid to the Houthi, who control the Red Sea, and thus the passage of oil carriers loading from the Saudi Red Sea pipeline (very large crude carriers are too big for the Suez canal end of the Red Sea). Perhaps reparations will have to be paid to Hezbollah for the intentionally wrongful acts of Israel and the USA.

Perhaps it was tacitly 'agreed' Trump could strike the military sites on Kharg Island.  Iran claims, and it seems correct, no one was harmed and the site is still functional and loading out oil.

Meanwhile, Trump dispatched the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit along with the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, allegedly to Kharg Island. This seems like theater, a dramatic theatrical element for Trump to show the American public the power of the USA military (Treasury Secretary Bessant is so impressed with the US military he wants his teenage son to ultimately join). A further amphibious vessel was dispatched, due about mid April.

It is shaping up for Trump to assemble some US and vassal state ships around the Gulf 'to protect' ships entering and leaving. Around 1,000 kilometers out to sea to avoid Iranian missiles, of course. It seems to me that Trump will try to use Japan and some other countries (or even the amphibious ships) to seize any shiploads of oil that haven't paid in dollars, rather than dollars. This, as is usual, would backfire on him.

Crossing the finish line before its too late
In this scenario, Iran runs the Strait in line with a de facto 'Hormuz Treaty' (outlined below), but in actuality allows all ships (except US and Israeli) passage as long as the unfriendly countries continue to pay the toll. Trump hinted at this. When he said "the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage" the term "take care of" should be understood as 'take care of the bill'.

But Iran goes on bombing Israel for all the reasons I outlined here. And again, this is hinted at by 'former' American security official Joseph Kent.

The American polity reject the notion that America should go to war on behalf of Israel's expansionist plans, and the same 'former' official more or less confirms that Israel will have to stop its regional aggressions permanently, or it won't receive US weapons or backing.

On the 21 March 2026 Trump signaled that he is about ready to wash his hands of his misadventure:

"We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran:
(1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them.
(2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base.
(3) Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry.
(4) Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place.
(5) Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others.

The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!
If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated.
Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them.
Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Mar 21, 2026, 10:13 AM

Trump has promised Gulf leaders personal protection as long as they pay in dollars - that's how I read it.

"“Today we are talking about certain leaks in which the American president is demanding that the GCC states pay approximately $5 trillion if they want this war to continue, and if they want it to stop, they must pay $2.5 trillion to the United States for what has been accomplished over the past period...”
Salem Al-Jahouri, Omani journalist and international affairs researcher 20 March 2026

Trumps signal follows the shoot down of an F35, and March 20 fire of Iranian advanced missiles at the UK-US base on Diego Garcia.

Trump can later blame Netanyahu - and some of his staff - for dragging America into an unwanted war, but now he can claim (falsely) he has met all his aims. He can falsely claim Iran is a "terrorist" (but no one cares about this garbage-talk any more.) He can claim that he, Trump, has brought peace to the region blah, blah, blah. But no one cares what he says to his domestic audience. It is over.

"Americans haven’t forgotten how, even as hundreds of U.S. soldiers were dying in Vietnam, and the outcome was already clear, General William Westmoreland was flown home to reassure everyone that the war was going well — that the U.S. was “winning.”
The media haven’t forgotten either; those briefings full of fantasy from the frontlines became infamous as the “Five O’Clock Follies."

Fast forward to today: same script, different stage; Hegseth steps up, and the message is still detached from reality.

U.S. government says one thing, reality says another.
Right as U.S. authorities claim Iran’s air defences are gone, an F-35 gets hit.
As they declare Iran’s navy finished, USS Gerald Ford turns back, and USS Abraham Lincoln drifts farther away
Different decade, same “we’re winning”"
Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Foreign Minister, Islamic Republic of Iran 21 March 2026

Trumps claims to dominate the skies over Iran has gone, and his claim of having destroyed Iran's missiles is looking more ridiculous every day. He will have to act very fast. I previously predicted that he would announce the end of his war on monday 23rd (making money on the futures market on the way). This seems increasingly likely. But if not this monday then midweek (a good news drop time) or the following monday.

One positive result for US taxpayers is that the US will save huge amounts of money by exiting the bases in the Gulf. It also enables Trump to abandon Israel, and stop paying vast amounts of taxpayer money to them. True, Netanyahu's freedom from prison relies on keeping Israelis insecure by fomenting constant aggressions inside and around the country, but it is up to Israelis to 'see the light' and find another leader. If they don't, Iran will keep lazily attacking their military from now to the end of time.

This gives Trump a very good face-saving backdown. Not only that, Trump receives benefits.

Here's Trumps finger in the pie: First, sanctions on Iran will end.
This means US firms can sell goods to Iran. Gulf states are stuck with 'picking up the tab' for reparations. Reparations can include goods in kind (Germany had to hand over a lot of industrial equipment to Russia after world war 2). The US may persuade Gulf States to buy non strategic goods of a humanitarian (non-strategic from Iran's perspective, not America's) to 'donate' to Iran. Consumables of all kinds would fit this description, as well as raw materials and building materials. Cement, wood for framing, rolled steel joists, sheet metal, that sort of thing. If Iran were buying these materials on the international market, they would buy them from China, as that is the cheapest source. But as they are 'free', that is reparations for the Israeli - US crimes, the price doesn't come into it. Trump can. of course, frame it as 'selling' great American goods to the Iranians.

Second Trump sells oil in dollars via Japan. Later he will sell gas to a Japanese co-owned strategic store.

Iran achieves its security and keeps the US out of the Gulf. And it makes those who committed these crimes pay. And pay. And pay.


How long will the conflict last?  Added 11 March 2026
"Ceasefire is not an option. This war will continue until Iran's demands are met.
Iran will no longer accept a situation in the region where the United States can threaten it again. That's over.
Professor Seyed Marandi 10 March 2026

""There is a consensus that we must act in such a way that the shadow of war is permanently removed from the country,...We must not allow our enemies to simply continue their aggressions, starting them whenever they wish, and then raising their hands to declare a halt only when they come under heavy pressure and incur costs."
Esmaeil Baghaei spokesman Foreign Ministry of Iran 12 March 2026

Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council has already said the conflict will last until two conditions exist:

1. When the Americans, Israelis, and adversarial Gulf and European countries "understand" they have no 'right' to violate Iranian territory in any way, ever.
2. When Iran's "adversaries" agree to pay compensation.

Taking the first condition, how will this 'understanding' of the inviolability of International law be reached? The US and Israel in particular consider themselves to be 'superior', 'special', and that the laws that apply to all the other countries of the world don't apply to them. Because 'they said' they don't.

It seems to me all 'adversarial' countries will have to publicly lodge a letter with the United Nations Security Council stating clearly and unambiguously that they will no longer violate Iranian territory and will also obey laws that relate to respectful relations between states. This, of course, is meaningless in the case of USA, Israel and some European countries, as these nation can not be trusted. But form must be followed.

The real "understanding" is the practical demonstration by Iran that aggression from now on will be met with resolute and powerful defensive measures - both military and economic. Most importantly, severe physical damage will be done to regional adversaries, while severe economic damage will be done to US and European adversaries. (It is reasonable to expect that in the not too distant future both the East coast of USA and all of Europe will be within range of Iranian retaliatory long range missile strikes.)

"In an outright lie, Trump claimed that Iran’s missile launches have severely diminished. But in reality, Iran is more powerful even compared with the early days of the war and is targeting US and Israeli bases with warheads weighing more than a ton

American forces are not the ones who determine the end of the war, we are fully capable of expanding the war. Security will be for all and insecurity will also be for all.

We are the ones who determine the end of the war”
Iranian IRGC Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini

The conflict will not end when the USA says so.

First, Iran must destroy Israels military capacity comprehensively.
Second, the USA and European military must re-deploy out of the region.
Third, all adversaries must sign the required letter of future compliance with International law, and then either commence first payments of reparations compensation or wait until Iran has seized enough assets to cover reparations.

Then there is the issue of revenge.

"The revenge we have in mind is not just because of the martyrdom of the illustrious Leader of the Revolution.

Every member of the nation who is martyred by the enemy constitutes a separate case that demands seeking revenge.

A limited portion of this seeking revenge can already be seen.

But until we completely take revenge, this file will remain on top of all the others. We’re even more sensitive with regard to the blood of our children and infants. The crime deliberately committed by the enemy against the Shajarah-Tayyibah School in Minab and other similar cases will receive particular attention in this process of taking revenge."
Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei 12 March 2026


"The unknown fate of the Zionist criminal prime minister and the possibility of his death or his escape, along with his family, from the occupied territories reveal a crisis and the faltering situation of the Zionists, if the child killer is still alive, we will strongly keep chasing and killing him.”
 Islamic Revolution Guards Corps 15 March 2026

The equation seems to be that until as many Israeli military die as Iranians, including high ranks, nothing will be settled. But because civilians, including children have been murdered, then the price the Israelis pay must be much higher. The Americans are the primary aggressor. Yet there have been almost no deaths. American don't care how many people they kill, brown or white (Yugoslavia), but they are very sensitive about their own soldiers being killed. As Vietnam and Afghanistan proved, the Americans won't leave until a substantial number of American military are dead. But in the process, more Iranians will be killed by USA. These will also have to be avenged. On 15 March 2026 the IRGC said attacks on American bases in the 52nd wave of retaliations was for 'the blood of workers killed in US - Israeli industrial towns. (A list of targets of the various waves and the missiles used is published on PressTV website.)How long will this cycle go on? Until the global economy collapses and the USA stops its aggression.

At that point Iran could agree to end the military phase.

But that is only part one of a two part process.

Iran uses the West's hybrid war technique

The west tried to destroy Russia's economy, make its people suffer and seize control of its mineral assets via sanctions and a proxy war. Details.

The west tried to destroy Iran economy, make its people suffer and seize control of its mineral assets via sanctions and a proxy war.

Now Iran will blockade and sanction the west and make its people suffer. Iran will seize back the opportunities for development the west stole from Iran. It will demand full compensation for everything it has suffered. It will demand punitive damages.

Iran Control of the Straits of Hormuz

Iran militarily controls entry and exit through the Straits of Hormuz. It decides which ships enter and which ships are locked out. This is what the US did to Venezuela. But Iran controls the Straits from land as well as sea. Immediately, from the hills around the coast, but also from its strategic depths far inland. From missile silos hidden deep in the mountains all across the country.

Iran controls, and will control, the chokepoints exiting the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. I previously proposed the obvious - marine goods will be allowed to flow once again, but the US and aggressor countries will have to pay a tariff until reparations are paid in full. (This will take decades.)

It is beyond obvious, even to the most inept and foolish person, that the Straits will remain closed until all seized money is returned (with interest) and every sanction is fully and permanently removed from Iran.

No signed agreement is needed. Why? Because countries that refuse to return the money or attempt to re-impose 'sanctions' will have their ships banned from the Middle East.

The US and Israel knew this would happen. Prior to the February 2026 suprise attack, Iran repeatedly warned the US that if it was attacked again (in spite of the truce that Iran agreed to at the US sides request) then Iran would immediately attack US bases in the region, as well as Israel.

Yet on the 28th of February 2026 the US and its Israel proxy launched another sneak attack under cover of truce and while negotiations were on-going - the war crime of 'perfidy'. Apparently the US and Israel did not think the Iranians were serious.

Bases in Gulf States were attacked, ships entering or exiting the Gulf had insurance refused or cancelled, all trade ground to a halt, shipborne oil and LNG gas income was placed at risk. The Gulf states were, and still are, furious. The US cannot, and did not, protect them. Various Gulf states told Iran they would not allow their territories to be used as a base from which Americans could attack Iran. But many states reneged, and became parties to the conflict. And Iran is already applying rules broadly consonant with the Montreaux Treaty of 1936.

"Iran is not going to accept a ceasefire. That's out of the question. Conditions will have to be met and those conditions will be met.

And these Arab family dictatorships in the Persian Gulf first and foremost are the ones who are going to have to obey and accept Iran's conditions.

Iran is now talking about controlling the Strait of Hormuz from now on, and receiving money for allowing ships to pass through.

This is what these Arab regimes had brought upon themselves. these dictatorships.

They thought that they could have their cake and eat it too. That they could have US bases and threaten Iran and have Iran bombed, and then Qatar and the Emirates and the regime in Bahrain, Kuwait and the Saudis, they could say that we're neutral and get away with it. That's not happening.

Right now they're paying a price, but even when the war ends, they will continue to pay a price. They have to compensate for all the things that they've done against Iran. We're living in a new reality, Glenn.
Professor Seyed Marandi to Professor Glenn Diesen 10 March 2026

The new Supreme leader made it official on 13 March 2026:

"... the leverage of closing the Strait of Hormuz must definitely continue to be employed."
Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei 12 March 2026

Therefore, those Gulf countries that allowed their airbases to be used for re-fuelling will also have to pay.

When the US-Israeli aggression ends, a new form of regulation of the straits is likely to be developed - with the Gulf countries.

Once the US-Israeli project to destroy Iran fails - and Russia and China will ultimately make sure it does - Israel, once a US proxy, will slowly lose economic support. Israel, the primary state terrorist in the region, will slowly start to learn civilised behaviour.


Iran's Terms First edited 11 March 2026, last edited 13 March 2026

"Talking to leaders of Russia and Pakistan, I reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region. The only way to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime & US—is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int'l guarantees against future aggression."
Masoud Pezeshkian, Ninth President of the Islamic Republic of Iran 12 March 2026


"Shutting down US bases in the region will enable those governments to strengthen their ties with their own people, who are generally dissatisfied with the humiliating behavior associated with those bases. It will also bring an increase in their wealth and power."
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei 12 March 2026


 "The fifth part of my address is directed to the leaders and influential figures in certain regional countries. We share land or sea borders with 15 countries and have always wanted, and still want, warm, constructive relations with all of them. However, the enemy has been gradually establishing military and financial bases in some of these countries over the years to secure its dominance over the region.

In the recent attacks [against Iran], a number of military bases were used. Naturally, as we had clearly warned in advance, we have only targeted those bases without committing any act of aggression against those [regional] countries.

After this, we will have no choice but to continue this course of action even though we still believe in the necessity of maintaining our friendship with those neighbors.

These [regional] countries must determine their position with regard to the aggressors who have attacked our beloved homeland and murdered our people. I advise them to shut down those [US] bases as soon as possible, for they must surely have realized by now that the US’s claims of ensuring security and peace have been nothing but lies."
Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei 12 March 2026


"Iran has formally called on the United Arab Emirates to provide compensation for damages resulting from recent US strikes, saying Abu Dhabi facilitated attacks on Iranian territory, according to a letter submitted to the United Nations.

In a correspondence addressed to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Iran’s UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani said the UAE had enabled the United States to use its territory to carry out military operations against Iran.

Iravani stated in the letter that the UAE’s actions constituted “an internationally wrongful act that entailed state responsibility,” stressing that allowing foreign forces to launch attacks from its target launch sites in the Gulf Earlier on March 14, the spokesperson for Iran’s central Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters warned that Iranian forces may target US missile launch sites operating from locations inside cities in the UAE. Lieutenant Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaghari said the US military had resorted to operating from ports, docks, and concealed facilities within UAE cities after its military bases in the region were destroyed...US forces launched missiles from these locations targeting the Iranian islands of Abu Musa and Kharg.

...Although several Gulf states have publicly claimed that their territories would not be used for attacks against Iran, open-source information suggests otherwise. Flight-tracking data indicate that Saudi Arabian airspace is being used by aerial refueling tankers supporting fighter aircraft involved in strikes against Iran. The Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia has reportedly hosted multiple Stratotanker refueling aircraft participating in these operations.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates hosts anti-missile radar systems and interceptor batteries, along with logistical infrastructure supporting both US and Israeli personnel, including facilities used for resupply and operational coordination soil violated international law.

The Iranian envoy underscored that such conduct directly contributed to the aggression against Iranian territory, holding the UAE accountable for its alleged role in enabling the strikes. Tehran argued that the UAE bears international responsibility to provide full reparations, including compensation for both material and moral damages caused by the attacks.
Al Mayadeen English March 2026

Gulf countries must not host US bases. Iran will not stop attacking US bases in the Gulf, even after the war ends.

We know Iran will require the US to leave the Gulf militarily. We know Iran will demand full compensation. The new leader also has a goal of regime change in Israel.

"Without a doubt, cooperation between the members of the Resistance Front will shorten the path to eliminating the Zionist sedition."
 Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei 12 March 2026

He says a 'zionist sedition' occurred on January 8-9 2026 with the goal of de-stabilising Iran and turning the Iranian people against the government. He listed the events of those time - rioters hiding behind peaceful shopkeeper protests, a 'coup-like' targeting of government agencies, the whole action planned by the CIA and Mossad, killings engineered by trained ringleaders to increase the death toll, followed finally by the people coming out in massive numbers in support of the government.

It seems to me the term 'zionist sedition' should be understood as killing Mossad operatives, causing levels of destruction of military targets such that the zionist political faction falls, settler Israelis return to their own country, and the balance of political power in Israel tips in favor of somewhat more normal Israelis. Of course, it includes expelling CIA bases from Gulf countries. In other words, the CIA will be confined to US embassy staff only.

The current conflict is a golden opportunity for the root cause of many problems to be finally resolved. This seems to be the intention of the Iranians.

"...the United States started this war and must also acknowledge that it made a mistake and put an end to its aggression. We are not seeking a ceasefire because we do not want this scenario to be repeated again after some time.

Rather, we want the war to end completely and permanently...

We desire lasting peace throughout the entire region encompassing all the countries within it.

We do not believe in a ceasefire. We believe in ending the war. ...Ending the war on all fronts. I think this is also in the interest of peace in the region.

That once and for all the issues of war in the region is resolved and that we witness peace throughout the region in Lebanon, in Yemen, in Iraq, in Iran and in other countries of the region.

The region should become a stable region characterized by peace, development and progress. I believe that peace in the region must be comprehensive encompassing all dimensions of peace and including all countries.

Foreign Minister Araghchi 18 March 2026


I present my ideas of what other terms and conditions Iran might require. These make perfect sense to me - but of course none of us are walking in Iran's shoes.

The Hormuz Straits will likely be tolled. Houthis will toll the Red Sea. This leverage means Iran can enforce terms that solve its own and many regional problems. While the list below is in what I think is the order of likelihood, and is speculative, the first 3 are certain:

Iran won't re-open the Gulf to western adversarial ships until:

1. Iran has prepared a bill of reparations by country with the current (inflation adjusted) amount from past crimes and coercive practices, plus reparations due for damages done in the on-going effort to defeat the aggressors. Payment mechanisms are flexible, and not yet in place (as far as we know), but definitely include seizing adversaries assets - all cargoes of oil and gas, and the ships transporting them.
2. Recognition of Iran's already existing rights (as a signatory of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty) to nuclear enrichment for civil purpose (sterilization, cancer treatment etc)
3. Nuclear weapons states provide written guarantees of Iran's security (probably by bilateral Security Agreements along Russia's 2009 outline, with Article 7 being highly pertinent)
4. All sanctions on Iran are lifted
5. Iranian money stolen by USA is returned in full, all interest paid
6. The US, Israel, and NATO countries withdraw all their military and military facilities from Gulf countries
7. Israel withdraws from Lebanon
8. Israel is forced to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and commence enabling the required international inspections, including by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
9. Israel and US gets out of Gaza and Gulf states pay for full reconstruction
10. Israel borders are legally fixed and there is either one democratic state or 2 viable states on the 1967 borders determined by the relevant UN resolutions


The west is notorious for not keeping to its agreements. Barely had the now expired JCPOA agreement been signed and the promised relief of sanctions on Iran disappeared.

The moment Israel does some crime - they act like 2 year olds, with no restraint - the Straits of Hormuz will be closed to the adversarial countries with reparations still outstanding - until such time as the USA (or more likely their financial sugar daddies) has/have paid reparations for Israel's latest crime in full, or Iran seizes sufficient assets to cover the bill. With the addition of punitive damages (Israel is a US proxy).


Mediation

It is uncertain if mediation is necessary. Iran holds all the cards. If there were to be mediation, China is the obvious choice.

"There are many countries, our friends that have proposed ideas and expressed readiness to play a role in achieving peace. We thank all of our friends who are making efforts in this regard. Our position is the same as what I have stated here and we have also conveyed it to our friends.

We do not accept a ceasefire. However, if there is an idea for ending the war that meets our conditions so that the war ends permanently across the entire region and the damages suffered by Iran are compensated, we will certainly listen to it...in my view, several countries can play this role. China is one of them.

China played a positive and successful role in mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia and I believe that both remain committed to the agreement reached through China's mediation. China certainly has strong capacities and alongside it other countries also have such potential. I repeat, any idea that meets our demands and fulfills our conditions, we will listen to it.

Foreign Minister Araghchi 18 March 2026


US and Israel are guilty of starting an unprovoked war of choice

"...everything about the current situation is the Americans fault. They must answer not only to their own people but also to our people, to the people of the region, and to history in the future. This war is not our war, not the war of the American people, nor the war of the region. It is America's war. A war that the United States itself chose...This war was imposed on us and we had warned about it in advance. We did not turn this into a regional war simply because attacks are coming from countries in the region. Their military bases in the region are being used against us. It is the United States that has turned it into a regional war, not us...I will repeat this war is not our war.
We did not start it.
The United States started it and is responsible for all the consequences of this war, human and financial.
Whether for Iran, for the region, or for the entire world, the United States must be held accountable."

Foreign Minister Araghchi 18 March 2026



Compensation

"A point I must highlight is that in any case, we will obtain compensation from the enemy.

If they refuse, we will take it from their assets to the extent we deem appropriate.

If that wasn’t possible, we will destroy an equivalent amount of their assets."
Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei 12 March 2026


The Iranians may allow the west to join together to compensate in a lump sum. The World Bank may be forced to pay, for example. The US may 'sell' Iran Venezuela's oil at a massive discount for the next 50 years (or however long it takes) so that Iran can on-sell it at a good profit. There are many ways to skin a cat. Without a doubt, a tonnage tax on passage will play a major part.

Early in the conflict, on March 14, ideas had not yet solidified:

"In order for Iran to get paid for all these damages, there are different ideas. One idea is levying tax on ships that are passing through and then yes, you can play with that tax rate, make it lower for friendly countries, make it higher for hostile countries. That's a way of generating revenue for paying all these damages.
The other idea is creating a fund, a regional reconstruction fund, and through that regional reconstruction fund Iran's damages would be paid.
Iran needs to make sure that the cost of attacking Iran is significant enough both financially and in terms of human cost that Iran is not attacked again."
Dr. Foad Izadi Pofessor of Communication, Tehran University 14 March 2026


Insofar as Gulf states are the enemy, Iran can certainly interdict their oil export assets, or seize, for example, North Pars. But there are no US assets in Iran to seize. The US has been preparing for this attack for a long time. Sanctions were an excuse, in part, to make sure Iran couldn't seize any assets once the US - Israeli attack came. Yet the Gulf is full of assets - oil, gas, fertilizer. No unfriendly country will receive anything unless they pay in advance. If they complain, well they can ask the US to re-imburse them. This means that Europe will plunge into ruin. Before it comes to that, they will stop giving money to Ukraine, and start giving money to Iran.

But however the US and Israel offload their financial punishment onto others, the price will flow through into the global price of oil. For decades. Gulf countries will probably finance the US debt. They will retrieve the cost by increasing the price of oil and gas. The US cannot escape the effect.

"There are demands but they are not directed, they're not directed at anyone in particular, at any entity in particular. So the issue of compensation for example is something that has been stated, but who compensates doesn't matter to us if Japan wants to compensate or Kuwait wants to compensate or the United States wants to compensate that's not the issue.

They've murdered many people. They've destroyed the lives of many, and through aggression, through an unprovoked and illegal and immoral war to support ethnosupremacism, to support a genocide in Gaza. I mean, this is evil upon evil upon evil, and so there will have to be compensation.
Professor Seyed Marandi 11 March 2026


That's the mechanism - positive incentives for compliance and fair dealing, collective punishment for debtor states until the non-compliance is fixed. With increasing 'fines' for continued non-compliance in future.

As for Trump - he is a devious and foolish person, and nothing should be concluded with him. He is not capable of keeping agreements, is devious and malign.

"I no longer see any room for diplomacy. Because [US President] Donald Trump deceives others and does not keep his promises, and we experienced this in two rounds of negotiations. While we were negotiating, they attacked us.

The Persian Gulf Arab countries and other countries must put pressure on the United States to end the war. If it continues, this pressure will increase, and thereby others will have no choice but to intervene”
Kamal Kharrazi, Head of Iran's Strategic Council of Foreign Relations 9 March 2026

No agreement is necessary.

Consequences of US and Israeli perfidy Added 11 March 2026

“Today, our verdict is the rule of 'an eye for an eye', straightforward, without exception… If they start a war on infrastructure, we will undoubtedly target theirs.

The enemy should know that whatever they do, it will undoubtedly face a proportionate and immediate response; no act of aggression will go unanswered”
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf Speaker of the Parliament of Iran ?10 March 2026


"What more can they do? If they want to destroy Iran's key infrastructure, that's a possibility.

But then Iran will destroy all key infrastructure in this region. Everything. All the oil and gas installations in the Persian Gulf region and in the Caucasus will be gone, finished. They won't be damaged. They'll be destroyed.

And that will mean that the key infrastructure of the United States will collapse.

The world will collapse because we will enter a severe global economic depression.

If that's what the United States wants, that's what it will get.

But the world will know that it's the United States that did this.
It will know that the Zionists did this.
It will know that Netanyahu did this.

Because Iran does not want war. Iran does not want to expand the war.
We want to live in peace.
We want the rights of Palestinians and the Lebanese and the people of Syria to be restored.
That's a very normal expectation.

But if war is imposed upon us, we will respond with counter measures. We will punish the enemy. And now the United States has lost everything in the Persian Gulf region. And and the damage that has been done to the United States is far greater so far than to Iran because the Persian Gulf region is [has] all of these American assets.

...This oil is not being sold. What is it sold in? It's sold in dollars. That is one. Two, a lot of this money goes to the US stock market. And for bonds, there's no money, so it's not going to go there.

And there's huge damage has been done to these regimes. It's not just the drone or the missile that hits. It's the entire confidence that used to exist about these regimes where huge amounts of money from across the world would go, to the Emirates for example. That's disappeared.

So these are all US assets and they're huge consumers. The amount of consumption that these Arab family dictatorships in the Persian Gulf have is is equivalent of maybe the African continent or the Latin American continent. I can't say with specifics, but they are huge consumers. Huge consumers. Well, they're not consuming anymore.

...and of course the the worth of the entire western side or southwestern side of the Persian Gulf has collapsed. It is no longer a place where you can in future invest in, or you can have confidence in.

...So the the damage done to the United States and the West through its own aggression against Iran and of course the Israeli regime which is being hammered day and night.

What fool is going to invest in Israeli regime in future? This is the second time Iran has been pounding it for eight in the last eight nine months. So all of these are huge.

We're the country that's sanctioned. We don't have foreign investors. Any investment is carried out by individuals in Iran and the government. That will continue to be the case. But I think for the United States, this is this is a sea change."
Professor Seyed Marandi 10 March 2026

The immediate and medium term consequences are becoming obvious, but long term consequences will only become obvious in time.

I will briefly mention the more important negative consequences over the ensuing months.

Oil
20 million barrels a day are now offline. In 10 days that is 200 million barrels. Every countries situation is different, but the G7 has about 1,200 million barrels of reserves. So in several months time the reserves will be gone.The price of oil will skyrocket. Until recession, economic stasis, destroys demand for oil.

As of 11 March 2026 about 6% of global production has disappeared. Iran has been sanctioned for decades. It is one of the countries best able to weather the economic downturn this oil shortage will incur.

Fertiliser

The Gulf produces about 15 million metric tons of nitrogen fertiliser annually. Qatar, Iran, and Saudi Arabia are the major producers. Some can be shipped overland in Iran and Saudi Arabia's case, but a significant proportion will be shut in. There is little extra capacity in the global nitrogen fertiliser manufacturing facilities. The northern hemisphere planting season is under way, and competition for nitrogen supply will drive up prices, eventually driving up food prices.

Infrastructure - water

"And if Iran wants everyone, all the Americans, to leave, all they have to do is destroy the desalination plants and it'll be over.
Iranian Brigadier General Masoud Akhtari. March 2026

If Trump and Netanyahu escalate and attack Iranian desalination plants, Iran will destroy Gulf desalination plants. Iranian has a low dependency on desalination plants, Gulf countries have an extremely high dependency. If Gulf plants are destroyed, almost the entire population of the affected country will have leave overland to Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, Turkey, then to Europe.

Infrastructure - oil

"If Iran want they can destroy all these oil and gas facilities and it will take years to rebuild them."
Iranian Brigadier General Masoud Akhtari. March 2026
 
Israel struck an oil refinery in Tehran. Iran struck an Israeli oil refinery. An eye for an eye. This is the equation.


Infrastructure - natural gas

"Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar's LNG Gas facility.

NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar - In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before. I do not want to authorize this level of violence and destruction because of the long term implications that it will have on the future of Iran, but if Qatar's LNG is again attacked, I will not hesitate to do so.:
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
President DONALD J. TRUMP

Trump won't attack Iran's turbine pumping stations for its natural gas because Iran will attack Gulf country gas turbines, ending the pumping of natural gas for many years to come. Instead, he directed his Israeli proxies to attack Iran's South Pars gas field (a field Iran shares with Qatar). Most (70%) of the gas produced here is used solely for Iran's domestic use. USrael struck 4 of the 24 production phases. Resulting fires and damage stopped production in those areas (100 million cubic meters/day, about 14% of Iran's total natural gas production), but the bulk of production remains on line. Gas is used to drive the turbines that generate electricity. The interruption to gas supply is causing rationing of both electricity and gas. Natural gas is also used in petrochemical production. Restricted gas supply has removed 40% of normal production levels. Iraq relies on Iranian natural gas to generatr around 30% of its electricity. Gas shipments have been suspended.

"Trump has said, 'we can take apart Iran's electric capacity within one hour, but we have not done it.' Well, if they do that, the whole region will go dark in less than half an hour, and darkness provides ample opportunity to hunt down US servicemen running for safety,"
Ali Larijani Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council 12 March 2026

The strike was limited because Trump knew the Iranians would retaliate in kind. The threat to "blow up the entirety of South Pars (he means the infrastructure) is meaningless bluster, as Qatar's terminal would be destroyed in retaliation. What's more, If all Iran's domestic natural gas was destroyed by the US, Iran would force Qatar to fully supply Iran with natural gas from North Pars. In addition, Iran would undoubtedly destroy all Israeli natural gas platforms and terminals, as well as those belonging to US companies wherever they are found - within the limit of the range of Iranian missiles.

On March 19 2026 Iran retaliated to the strike on South Pars with an attack on Qatars Ras Laffan LNG infrastructure, mainly processing plants and storage units. QatarEnergy says ~17% of Qatar's LNG production capacity is damaged. Ras Laffan is responsible for about 20% of global LNG exports Repairs are estimated to take 3 years or more for full restoration. A retaliatory strike on Israel's Haifa Bay oil refinery and petrochemical complex allegedly caused minor damage. The Americans refueled their strike planes in Saudi Arabia, and as a result, Saudi Arabia's Yanbu SAMREF refinery was attacked, but allegedly 'defeated' except for minor damage from a drone. defeated. The Houthi then closed the Red Sea, so exports from that coast are now locked in anyway.


Markets
The American weapons sales to Gulf countries will simply end.


There are also positive consequences:

1. A surge of interest in electric vehicles. This incentivises governments to subsidise the import of electric vehicles, and to supply charging stations. A natural knock-on effect will be a surge of interest in wind and solar powers, as well as batteries for baseload capacity.

2. A realisation that oil does not last forever. All three majors - USA, Saudi Arabia and Russia will run out of surplus oil (exports) before 2060. Unless decadal scale economic stagnation drops oil demand dramatically.

3. Eurasian trade routes will strengthen. There are 15 countries bordering Iran. Trade goes in all directs, with Iran as an important hub. The projects connecting China to Iran and beyond will expand. The Same for Russia. India may finally realise what side its bread is buttered on and start connecting to and through Iran. Iran's strategic depth will become even stronger.




Will the US, Israel and West capitulate before the global economy collapses? Added 11 March 2026

"...They didn't think the war would become long-term. They didn't think, for example, the price of oil would go up from $80. It has already gone up to $110, you should expect $120 and $150 in the coming days.

Well, what does this mean? It means the entire global economy will collapse. If the global economy collapses, will the world allow Trump to continue his warmongering?

Or will the countries of the region allow him to continue his warmongering?"
Iranian Brigadier General Masoud Akhtari 9 March 2026

I don't think anyone knows. After all, it is up to the US (mainly) to agree to terms, return to its own country - and busy itself with its domestic problems. But it is up to the will of one man. Donald Trump.

The longer he delays, the higher the cost across all aspects of the global economy - including his own.

Even once he signs, a certain amount of inflation will wash through. If he delays too long - and he is the sort of person who has a habit of always gambling with very high stakes and bad odds - the world will plunge into a severe recession. This self inflicted calamity will inevitably be made worse by domestic unrest due to high prices, unemployment, and insecurity. Perhaps this is his plan to cancel elections. After all, he is a cunning and devious person.



What's Next for the Gulf?  First edited 17 March 2026

"Those who count on such assistance should recall the sad experience of all leaders of countries that had relied on the United States.

As soon as the situation changed, Washington remorselessly left those leaders to their own devices and launched a new stage of its selfish policy."
Sergey Lavrov 5 November 2023

The Americans forced the Gulf States to sell oil using the dollar; in return, the US would protect them. The US cannot protect them; in contrast, its efforts are concentrated on protecting Israel. The 'petrodollar' bargain is broken. The Gulf states were already accepting yuan in payment for oil shipped to China. The 'petrodollar' bargain broke down in relation to China, at least, because the Chinese CIPS payments facility allows states to by-pass the US controlled SWIFT system of international payments.

But if the US can't protect the Gulf states, who can? Before this question can be answered, the Gulf states will have to decide whether or not they will continue to host US bases. If they do, Iran will continue to destroy those bases. So far, Iran has deliberately avoided hitting US troop concentrations (except for senior officers, in reprisal for US murder of their senior military). They don't need to hit troops. They have their hands around the throat of Gulf oil flows, and nothing the US does will change that.

Seyed Abbas Araghchi
@araghchi
Hundreds of Iranian civilians have been killed in Israel-U.S. bombings, including over 200 children.

Reports claim that some neighboring states which host U.S. forces and permit attacks on Iran are also actively encouraging this slaughter. Stances should be promptly clarified
3:27 AM · Mar 17, 2026

No defense or security pacts can be developed with a state that permits the acts of state terrorism Mr.Araghchi describes. On the other hand, Gulf States are duplicitous and often dishonorable, and Iran knows this, and should expect it. Gulf states are probably waiting to see if the US really does leave before they think about what to do to guarantee their own security from USA, Israel, and a future Iranian government.

Therefore, at the moment, the Iranians will have to sort the sheep from the goat - those states where a degree of trust can be developed, and those states where it can't. Unlike the Ukraine - Russia conflict, Iran can has no long term strategic desire to trade or diplomatically align with other Gulf states. It can retaliate and exact compensation in the blink of an eye. Iran can easily use access to the Straits of Hormuz to punish any Gulf country that allows its territory to be used for an attack - of any kind.

Russia has long promoted the idea of a Gulf Security Council (made up of Gulf States and Gulf States only) joining together to provide mutual security. A united Gulf will protect its own trade and civilisational peace.

This, a BRICS version of this, or a multilateral Gulf Security Treaty, is now all but a certainty. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, etc, all jointly patrolling and protecting the Gulf under Gulf developed regulations and conditions. These would probably be similar to 'The (Montreux) Convention regarding the Regime of the Straits' that governs free peacetime access to the Black Sea, with Turkiye being te controller.

"From our perspective, this is a waterway [Straits of Hormuz] located next to Iran.

Naturally, we will not allow our enemies to use this waterway.

At the same time, a war is taking place around it. And naturally many ships and countries may not want to use this route due to insecurity. Some countries contact us to discuss safe passage through the strait of Hormuz and we try to provide them with the conditions for such passage.

In my view, we need to design new arrangements for the strait of Hormuz and the way ships pass through it in the future after the war so that peaceful navigation through this waterway can be permanently maintained under clear regulations with consideration for Iran's interests and the interests of the region.

I believe that after the war, the first step should be drafting a new protocol for the Strait of Hormuz. Naturally, this should be done between the countries that lie on both sides of the strait as they are the principal parties in this matter and it should guarantee that safe passage through the strait takes place under specific conditions. Conditions that ensure peacefulness. We do not want to witness another war in the region and we do not want to see the strait closed again.

There must be regulations and conditions established that guarantee lasting peace in this region."

Foreign Minister Araghchi 18 March 2026


A Gulf defense force is a further step, albeit it would not be essential. Foreign military vessels berthing and refuelling only, no base, and restricted to humanitarian tasks. Gulf owned and operated radars, satellites, AWAC, and comms,  missile and drone technology. Sourced from multiple countries. None of it American. A Gulf Security Treaty with dispute settlement mechanisms. And Gulf reciprocal defense mechanisms in the case of attack from outside.

Perhaps the cost of such standing cooperative military forces could be paid for from revenue collected from ships traffic. Naturally, aggressor states will still have the reparations tax on top.

"The Islamic Republic, without being in pursuit of domination or colonization in the region, is fully prepared for unity, and fostering warm, sincere, reciprocal relations with all its neighbors."
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei 13 March 2026

"We are ready to resolve all problems with you. In order to ensure peace in the region, we propose to create a security structure in the Middle East, which will include Islamic countries, in order to ensure peace, stability and security,"
Middle Eastern countries do not need the presence of "outsiders," the president said.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, 20 March 2026

There is a limited window of time to convert to solar, nuclear, clean gas, wind and geothermal economies in the Gulf. Oil and gas are a diminishing and terminal resource.

The Gulf must protect its own future. No one can afford to have solar projects, wind, projects, cables and sophisticated battery storage infrastructure damaged or destroyed.

The security shift is a renewable energy shift which in the Gulf region is steadily embedding into daily life. Oil reservoirs are protected from war by geological depth under the ground. Renewable energy is vulnerable. This reality insures compliance with International law and peaceful relations between states. The greatest danger to peace and security in the Gulf is Israel and the United States.

A big power - Russia and China - Eurasian security umbrella will be needed.


The Convention regarding the regime of the Hormuz Straits Added 19 March 2026

"Did you know that Denmark earns significant revenue from the Kattegat Strait?
Of course, unlike Turkey, which officially receives tolls from the Bosphorus Strait, Denmark forces most passing ships to purchase pilotage services.
In other words, ships in international waters are compelled to comply with the laws of Denmark and Turkey"
Foad Izadi, Associate Professor, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, 21 March 2026


"Did you know that Turkey receives $5.83 in transit_fees for every ton of goods passing through the Bosphorus Strait?
This means there is legal precedent for collecting tolls from the #Strait_of_Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz should remain closed until the issue of transit tolls through the strait and war compensation is settled."
Foad Izadi, Associate Professor, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, 19 March 2026


It seems to me there will be a meeting with Gulf countries to develop and sign a Treaty on how the Persian Gulf's Hormuz Strait should be regulated. Once everything is agreed a formal written protocol that records and authenticates the proceedings, documents, agreements, and specific understandings will be issued. As soon as the respective contracting governments deposit the ratification with the UN, the Treaty will come into force.

If the will is there, this can be done quite quickly. If it isn't, Iran will impose its own rules, which will no doubt coincide with the bulk of the unconsummated text.

Good news: Iran is not a member of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Better news: The United States and Israel are also not members of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
This means Iran has a free hand in designing a new legal order, based on Iran's right to collect transit_fees from the Strait of Hormuz.
This means the practical end of 47 years of illegal_sanctions against Iran.
Foad Izadi, Associate Professor, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, 21 March 2026

If Iran was a party to the law of the Sea, it would have to give peaceful transit. But it isn't.

Hormuz access could be modeled on the 1936 Montreaux Treaty that regulates access to the Black Sea via Turkiye's Strait of Dardanelle. (The Treaty wording is on page 215 of the pdf of this UN treaties document.) 

Notably, the 'contracting parties' should only be those countries who have a shoreline on the waterway. Other countries could ratify such a treaty, accepting its principles, or not. It doesn't really matter. The basic principles are that peaceful countries should be able to freely navigate the straits, subject only to taxes for transit. In 1936, this was expressed as:

"In time of peace, merchant vessels shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits, by day and by night, under any flag and with any kind of cargo, without any
formalities..."

Accepting that Iran (Persia) controls the entrance to the Persian Gulf, then when Iran is not party to some other countries war that is going on, merchant vessels can pass through; but not military vessels. In 1936 this was expressed as:

"In time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, merchant vessels, under any flag or with any kind of cargo, shall enjoy freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits"

But when Iran is being attacked, countries that are not at war with Iran, and which are not helping the enemy IN ANY WAY can enter and leave the strait under Iran's direction. The 1936 wording is:

"In time of war, Turkey being belligerent, merchant vessels not belonging to a country at war with Turkey shall enjoy freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits on condition that they do not in any way assist the enemy.
Such vessels shall enter the Straits by day and their transit shall be effected by the route which shall in each case be indicated by the Turkish authorities."

You will immediately notice that Iran is implementing these principles right now.

Section 2 of the Treaty of Montreaux covers military vessels in times of peace and times of war. Naval bunkering vessels are allowed limited passage, by arrangement.

In times of peace "light surface vessels, minor war vessels and auxiliary vessels, whether belonging to Black Sea or non-Black Sea Powers, and whatever their flag, shall enjoy freedom of transit through the Straits". This would have to be much more strictly limited in today's world, I would guess.

Under the 1936 treaty, surface ships and submarines of littoral states can pass through, but submarines must pass through surfaced. Foreign ships visiting ports of littoral states are limited in size and in number. In addition, the aggregate tonnage of ships visiting various littoral countries has a hard cap.

Using the 1936 concept, in time of war between nations where Iran is not involved, warships could transit the Strait, subject to previous conditions, but not the warships of those in conflict with each other. The only exception would be if a warship is moving to assist a littoral country which is being illegally attacked.

In a similar way, if Iran feels under imminent danger of attack, or is at war, Iran has the right to close the Strait to warships. Today, this has rightly been extended to ships transporting oil, gas, fertiliser and anything else that may aid the aggressor or those assisting the aggressor. As the Gulf countries are assisting the US-Israeli aggressors, then the Gulf is closed to them. Other ships can pass through, as long as they coordinate with Iran's navy, and pay the tax. The US dollar as a reserve currency allows the US to fund its war on Iran by creating money out of thin air. Therefore, Iran insists that countries use another currency, the yuan.

This is a rough outline of the principle of the 1936 Treaty. A Hormuz Treaty would probably broadly follow these principles.It would also be lodged with the United Nations, and therefore become part of International law. The US and Israel have no respect for international law, but the rest of the world does. Let them go their own way.

Every diplomatic hint I have seen - including Trump's ham-handed comments - point to this being discussed behind the scenes. Iran is already implementing it.

There were only 10 signatories to the Montreaux Convention, and a similar convention today would similarly be restricted to coastal countries of the Gulf. The contracting parties meet at set intervals under the Montreaux Convention, and report to the UN. A Gulf convention would do the same. The US is not a signatory of the Montreaux convention as it has no shoreline in the Gulf.  Today, you can bet it is blocking a behind-the-scenes similar legal convention for Hormuz in an attempt to be a contracting party and founding signatory. It probably won't succeed. Even if it did, its signature on documents is literally worthless.

But Trump is playing against the clock. He is laying the ground work for leaving Israel to sit in their own mess while he agrees to a 'deal'. But he had better hurry.



Time log of the de facto Hormuz Treaty added 20 March 2026

?18 March 2026 - Iran designated an inshore passage sealane (between the shore and Iran's Larak Island) for vessels moving through the Gulf, in order for the Iranian Port Authority and IRGC Navy to properly validate ships passing through.

19 March 2026
Around 7 million barrels a day of global oil supply are off the global markets. Insurers won't send ships, oil prices are bid up due to uncertain supply.

The market Japanese Prime Minister visits Trump and says "I also brought specific proposals to calm down the global energy market." This language echos the conclusion from the 2009 international scenario exercise war-gaming the closure of the Straits of Malacca (see Col. Larry Wilkerson interview 21 March 2026). The proposals are likely to be expansion of Japans already very large oil storage capacity, and a sea link from the Alaska Valdez storage facility to Japan (a 7 - 10 day journey). The Valdez 'tank farm' has a capacity of about 6 million barrels. Oil on-sold to Japan will be paid in dollars.  Perhaps petrobonds will also be sold, to offset loss of the Japan 'carry trade'.  Petrobonds are often used to re-finance existing debt, such as US debt.

A former US official of the Directorate of National intelligence and former CIA operative says Trumps task is to first stop Israel's attacks on other countries and if they won't, walk away and say "you're on your own". After that, "make sure the petrodollar is being used". USA will have to "aggressively" pursue its economic interests. Presumably this means strong-arming the Saudis to pay in dollars again, and probably interdicting any ships that leave the Gulf whith oil paid for in yuan. Finally new diplomats will be needed. No doubt Mr. Kent will be available.

20 March 2026 -  as noted above, Iran has already implemented elements of the 'Hormuz Treaty'. Chinese and Russian ships pass through freely. As these are friendly ships, I imagine that they pay minimal tax at this moment. The Pakistani Aframax oil tanker Karachi allegedly paid $US2 million to transit the Strait with 109,000 tonnes of oil bound for Karachi. This appears to be a tax rate of $20 a tonne, or very roughly 17.25 yuan (USD2.50) a barrel for a friendly country. Turkiye charges $5.07 per tonne of cargo as the fee for the passage of ships through the Bosphorus and Dardanelle straits. The fee is indexed to the price of gold.

Does Iran index its transit fee to the price of gold? The concept is there.

Indian ships were allowed to leave after India released the illegally detained Iranian LNG ships. The Indians, who have embraced the Israeli aggressor, will probably have to pay an 'unfriendly' rate, but at least will be allowed transit.





Laurie Meadows articles on Security